Shifts in bird ranges and conservation priorities in China under climate change

Abstract

Climate change is one of the most significant causes of species range shift and extinction. Based on a citizen science dataset of birds in China, the Bird Report, we developed a highresolution map of bird species richness in China, and simulated the range shifts and area changes of the 1,042 birds through the year 2070 using three different General Circulation Models and two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, including RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). It was found that 241-244 (under different scenarios) bird species would lose a portion of their distribution ranges; and that most species in China would move to either higher elevations or northward. The other 798-801 species would experience range expansion. Compared to resident species (n = 516), migratory birds (n = 526) may undergo more limited range expansion but a longer range shift distance on average. The species diversity of birds will considerably increase in areas higher than 1,500 m in elevation under both RCPs. Conservation priorities with higher species richness were also identified using the Zonation model. The existing national nature reserves are not sufficient for protecting important bird habitats, especially after range shifts. Significant gaps in protected areas were observed in the northern Xinjiang, southern Tibet, Greater Khingan, Sanjiang Plain, Songnen Plain, northern Bohai Rim, and southeastern coastline areas. Many of these areas are characterized by high human populations and intensive development, and establishing sizable protected areas has become difficult. Inclusive conservation mechanisms that include restoring habitats in urban parks and sharing habitats in farmland areas, may be a feasible solution.

The State of Migratory Landbirds in the East Asian Flyway: Distributions, Threats, and Conservation Needs

“…Shifts in distributions and range limits of many species may be explained by changes in vegetation cover and associated habitat dynamics, often anthropogenically caused, or may arise due to the broader effects of warming driven by climate change (Virkkala and Lehikoinen, 2014; Box 1). According to modeled climate change scenarios, the distributions of most East Asian species are expected to be affected, including many that are already threatened (Hu et al, 2020). These distribution shifts need to be considered when planning conservation actions for migratory species.…”

“…Obtaining such information is not only costly and labour intensive, but also presents major challenges, particularly for rare and cryptic species (Soulé and Orians, 2001). Citizen science data now occupies a more prominent place in modern ornithology and can help fill many knowledge gaps (Tulloch et al, 2013b;Hu et al, 2020). Besides popular platforms such as ebird.org (1.1 million bird checklists for India, 84,000 for Thailand, 62,000 for China and 23,000 for Russia by December 2020) and iNaturalist.org (81,000 observations for India, 14,000 for Thailand, 18,000 for China and 230,000 for Russia by December 2020), species-specific or threat-based citizen science projects are also becoming more ubiquitous.…”

Waterbird habitat loss: fringes of the Yellow and Bohai Seas along the East Asian–Australasian Flyway

“…Coastal wetlands in China provide key stopover sites for waterbird species along the East Asian-Australasian Flyway (EAAF)-a region supporting more than 50 million waterbirds from more than 250 populations during their breeding, wintering and stopover periods (Bai et al, 2015;Barter, 2002;Xia et al, 2016). These species are sensitive to environmental change, with suitable habitat and migration routes potentially affected by both climate change (Hu et al, 2020;Steen et al, 2018) and human activities (Xu et al, 2019;Yang et al, 2011). A decrease in habitat quantity and quality at stopover sites poses a serious threat to waterbird populations (Ma et al, 2019;Studds et al, 2017).…”

“…Species distribution models (SDMs) can identify relationships between distribution records of species and corresponding environmental variables, enabling information on the potential habitat of species to be generated (Andrew & Fox, 2020; Austin, 2017). Combining SDMs and citizen science data can contribute towards accurate prediction of species habitat ranges (Hu et al, 2020; Panda et al, 2018; Tanner et al, 2019).…”

Driven to the edge: Species distribution modeling of a Clawed Salamander (Hynobiidae: Onychodactylus koreanus) predicts range shifts and drastic decrease of suitable habitats in response to climate change

“…With rapidly changing climate, faunal distributions are expected to shift across latitudinal and elevational gradients (Chen et al, 2011;Enriquez-Urzelai et al, 2020;Parmesan & Yohe, 2003;Smeraldo et al, 2021;Wilson et al, 2007). Although such range shifts can lead to range expansions and population increase in some species (Borzée, Andersen, et al, 2019;Hu et al, 2020), many species are likely to experience range contractions and displacement from their suitable habitats, ultimately leading to population decline and extinction (Ashrafzadeh et al, 2019;Borzée, Andersen, et al, 2019;Hu et al, 2020;Mothes et al, 2020;Zhang, Mammola, et al, 2020).…”