Shifts in flood generation processes exacerbate regional flood anomalies in Europe

Tarasova, Larisa; Lun, David; Merz, Ralf; Blöschl, Günter; Basso, Stefano; Bertola, Miriam; Miniussi, Arianna; Rakovec, Oldřich; Samaniego, Luis; Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini

doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00714-8

Cited by 38 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 79 publications

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“…The ubiquitous compounding effects in river floods also pose a huge challenge to flood risk management in a warming climate, especially considering that different trends in flood drivers will alter the magnitudes and associated probabilities of extreme floods 10,11 , thereby challenging current risk management measures. Moreover, climate change is likely to increase the currently low flood complexity in high-latitude regions because the present snowmelt-dominated flood generation will probably become more mixed with rainfall 45,46 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Generally, river floods can be generated by a variety of atmospheric processes (e.g., circulation patterns causing heavy precipitation and temperature increases causing snowmelt or glacial melt) that are modified by various catchment conditions and characteristics 2 . Intricate interactions of all these processes determine the timing, duration, extent, temporal clustering, and severity of river floods [8][9][10][11] , which makes estimating future flood risks particularly challenging because flood drivers may exhibit varying trends in a changing climate 4,12 .…”

Section: Mainmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The importance of compounding drivers for large river floods

Jiang

Tarasova

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Estimating river flood risks under global warming is challenging, largely because of the compounding nature of various drivers1,2. Yet to date, the interplay of multiple drivers and how they affect river floods are not well understood. Here we use explainable machine learning to disentangle the interactions between flood drivers and identify the compounding drivers of river floods in thousands of catchments around the world. We find that the majority of river floods worldwide over the past 40 years were attributable to compounding drivers, which often amplified river flood magnitude. Furthermore, the role of compounding drivers becomes more important with increasing flood magnitude in nearly all of the studied catchments, with the strength of this relationship generally depending on the catchment physio-climatic conditions. Based on these findings, we demonstrate that traditional statistical methods using flood frequency analysis underestimate the magnitude of extreme floods because compounding drivers are not properly taken into account3. Overall, our results highlight the need for careful incorporation of compounding drivers in flood risk assessment to improve estimates of extreme floods, in particular in the face of climate change4,5.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Mainmentioning

confidence: 99%

The importance of compounding drivers for large river floods

Jiang

Tarasova

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…Event‐based investigations at the global scale, as conducted by Stein et al (2020), provide a first structured glimps on flood composition and of climate change impacts on flood hazard at the continental scale. Analysis on the continental scale can partly refine the understanding of large scale flood genesis (e.g., Berghuijs et al, 2016; Berghuijs, Harrigan, et al, 2019; Brunner, Gilleland, et al, 2020; Huang et al, 2022; Jiang et al, 2022; Stein et al, 2021; Tarasova et al, 2023). Important hydro‐meteorological triggers for the generation of large‐scale streamflow peaks include large‐scale frontal rainstorms, convective rain cells over a large region, rainfall on a snow‐covered landscape, and widespread snowmelt.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Analysis on the continental scale can partly refine the understanding of large scale flood genesis (e.g., Berghuijs et al, 2016;Brunner, Gilleland, et al, 2020;Huang et al, 2022;Jiang et al, 2022;Stein et al, 2021;Tarasova et al, 2023). Important hydrometeorological triggers for the generation of large-scale streamflow peaks include large-scale frontal rainstorms, convective rain cells over a large region, rainfall on a snow-covered landscape, and widespread snowmelt.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rhine flood stories: Spatio‐temporal analysis of historic and projected flood genesis in the Rhine River basin

Rottler

Bronstert

Bürger

et al. 2023

Hydrological Processes

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The genesis of floods in large river basins often is complex. Streamflow originating from precipitation and snowmelt and different tributaries can superimpose and cause high water levels, threatening cities and communities along the riverbanks. For better understanding the mechanisms (origin and composition) of flood events in large and complex basins, we capture and share the story behind major historic and projected streamflow peaks in the Rhine River basin. Our analysis is based on hydrological simulations with the mesoscale Hydrological Model forced with both meteorological observations and an ensemble of climate projections. The spatio-temporal analysis of the flood events includes the assessment and mapping of antecedent liquid precipitation, snow cover changes, generated and routed runoff, areal extents of events, and the above-average runoff from major sub-basins up to 10 days before a streamflow peak. We introduce and assess the analytical setup by presenting the flood genesis of the two well-known Rhine floods that occurred in January 1995 and May 1999. We share our extensive collection of event-based Rhine River flood genesis, which can be used in-and outside the scientific community to explore the complexity and diversity of historic and projected flood genesis in the Rhine basin. An interactive webbased viewer provides easy access to all major historic and projected streamflow peaks at four locations along the Rhine. The comparison of peak flow genesis depending on different warming levels elucidates the role of changes in snow cover and precipitation characteristics in the (pre-)Alps for flood hazards along the entire channel of the Rhine. Furthermore, our results suggest a positive correlation between flood magnitudes and areal extents of an event. Further hydro-climatological research is required to improve the understanding of the climatic impact on the Rhine and beyond.

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“…Additionally, shifts in precipitation seasonality affects flood patterns (Berghuijs et al., 2019; Blöschl et al., 2017; Wasko et al., 2020a, 2020b) and the occurrence of natural hazards, such as flash floods, landslides (Marc et al., 2018; Steger et al., 2023), and debris flow (Nikolopoulos et al., 2015). Moreover, these changes interact with other climate feedback mechanisms, such as snowmelt runoff, atmospheric rivers, and tropical cyclones, amplifying or mitigating the impacts of climate change on various parts of the hydrological cycle (Gershunov et al., 2017; Miniussi et al., 2020; Tarasova et al., 2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical Shifts in Seasonality and Timing of Extreme Precipitation

Gründemann,

Zorzetto,

van de Giesen

et al. 2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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Global warming impacts the hydrological cycle, affecting the seasonality and timing of extreme precipitation. Understanding historical changes in extreme precipitation occurrence is crucial for assessing their impacts. This study uses relative entropy to analyze historical changes in seasonality and timing of extreme daily precipitation occurrences on the global domain for 63 years of fifth generation of the European Reanalysis reanalysis data. Our analysis reveals distinct regional patterns of change. During the second half of the 20th century, Africa and Asia experienced high clustering of precipitation extremes. Over the past 60 years, clustering increased in Africa while becoming more spread out in Asia. North America and Australia had initially lower clustering and showed slight increases over time. Extreme events in extra‐tropical land regions mainly occurred in summer, with modest shifts in timing. These findings have implications for risk assessments of natural hazard like flash floods and landslides, emphasizing the necessity for region‐specific adaptation strategies.

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Shifts in flood generation processes exacerbate regional flood anomalies in Europe

Cited by 38 publications

References 79 publications

The importance of compounding drivers for large river floods

The importance of compounding drivers for large river floods

Rhine flood stories: Spatio‐temporal analysis of historic and projected flood genesis in the Rhine River basin

Historical Shifts in Seasonality and Timing of Extreme Precipitation

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