Shock Therapy versus Gradualism Reconsidered: Lessons from Transition Economies after 15 Years of Reforms

Popov, Vladimir

doi:10.1057/palgrave.ces.8100182

Cited by 115 publications

(70 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…There is a substantial amount of literature that addresses various aspects of the transition recession and attempts to identify the factors that triggered the recovery. Some notable works include de Melo et al (1996), Fischer et al (1996a, b), Sachs (1996), de Melo et al (1997), Hernandez-Cata (1997), Havrylyshyn et al (1998), Berg et al (1999), Polanec (2004), and Popov (2007). These studies examine one or more of four different sets of variables to understand the growth experiences of the early transition years.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and Growth: Evidence from Transition Economies

Nath

2009

Comp Econ Stud

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Using a fixed effects panel data approach, this paper empirically examines the effects of trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) on growth of per capita real GDP in 13 transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe, and the Baltic region from 1991 to 2005. A significant positive effect of trade on growth is a robust result for transition economies of this region. In addition, domestic investment appears to be an important determinant of growth. In general, FDI does not have any significant impact on growth in these transition economies. However, when we control for the effects of domestic investment and trade on FDI, it appears to be a significant determinant of growth for the period after 1995.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and Growth: Evidence from Transition Economies

Nath

2009

Comp Econ Stud

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“…The reforms there were more sustainable and systematic than in other former Soviet countries. Lithuania survived a serious drop in per capita income during economic difficulties in 1990, and managed to recover early [14,15].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes In Mortality Trends Of Road Traffic Injuries In Lithuania Over 1971-2014

et al. 2017

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SummaryThe goal of this study was to analyze the changes in mortality trends of road traffic injuries for the whole population in transitional Lithuania over 1971 to 2014. Special attention was paid to the potential effect of the activities at macro and micro-level, and the socio-economic changes after the Independence in 1991. The data were derived from the Department of Statistics for the Government of the Republic of Lithuania, the Archives of Health Information Centre, and the Institute of Hygiene in Lithuania. The numbers have been based on the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) of the World Health Organization (WHO). Trends were estimated by the use of logarithmic regression. During the study, trends before the Independence in 1991 and after the Independence were compared. The study revealed that during the 44-year study period, a total of 38,982 people died from road traffic injuries in Lithuania. Men deceased 3.2 times more than that of women. About 40% of those killed in road traffic crashes were pedestrians. The mortality rates of road traffic injuries showed no significant change over the pre-independence period for the whole group. However, during the post-independence period , the mortality rates of road traffic injuries in the country significantly decreased for the whole population. Before the Independence , no change was presented nor in men and nor in women subgroups, whereas after the Independence (1992-2014), road traffic injury deaths fell significantly in both sexes. In addition, over the post-independence period, a significant decrease in pedestrian mortality trends for the whole population, and in men and women subgroups was observed. The study confirmed that sustainable preventive measures at macro and micro levels had possible impact on fatal road traffic injuries in the country. Socioeconomic changes, political reforms, education activities, safe environment creation, legislation, and improved healthcare seem to have contributed to the significant decrease of fatal road traffic injuries in transitional Lithuania. Continuous and permanent injury prevention and road safety promotion work is recommended for road safety management.

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“…In addition, they have explained and discussed the causative conditions that most affected vulnerable people, as well as the policy approaches used to tackle such transformation processes. Meslé (2004) and Grigoriev et al (2010) have also pointed out that the effects of the dissolution of the former Soviet Union varied across central and eastern European countries depending on their initial conditions, including their industrial structure and their levels of income and human capital (Popov 2007(Popov , 2009). In the early 1990s, radical economic and political reforms led to substantial increases in mortality in Russia and Lithuania, whereas the more modest economic and political changes in Belarus during this period resulted in smaller increases in mortality (Grigoriev et al 2010).…”

Section: Economic Impact On Mortalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These deaths were largely due to excessive alcohol consumption, accidents, and cardiovascular diseases; and were less likely to occur among the very young and the very old, the groups who are usually most affected by such crises (Leon 2007;Shkolnikov and Cornia 2000;Shkolnikov et al 2004). The well-being of a population in terms of their economic prospects and health status depends not only on the speed of economic liberalization and democratization, direct foreign investment (including mass privatization (Stuckler et al 2009)), and free trade, but also on the willingness of policy-makers and the polity to pursue strategies that meet the country's specific requirements (Popov 2007(Popov , 2009.…”

Section: Economic Impact On Mortalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Economic Conditions and Crises on Mortality and its Predictability

Bohk

Rau

2016

Social Demography Forschung an Der Schnittstelle Von Soziologie Und Demografie

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To investigate how economic conditions and crises affect mortality and its predictability in industrialized countries, we review the related literature, and we forecast mortality developments in Spain, Hungary, and Russia-three countries which have recently undergone major transformation processes following the introduction of radical economic and political reforms. The results of our retrospective mortality forecasts from 1991 to 2009 suggest that our model can capture major changes in long-term mortality trends, and that the forecast errors it generates are usually smaller than those of other well-accepted models, like the Lee-Carter model and its coherent variant. This is because our approach is capable of modeling (1) dynamic shifts in survival improvements from younger to older ages over time, as well as (2) substantial changes in long-term trends by optionally complementing the extrapolated mortality trends in a country of interest with those of selected reference countries. However, the forecasting performance of our model is limited (like that of every model): e.g., if mortality becomes extremely volatile-as was the case in Russia after the dissolution of the Soviet Union-generating a precise forecast will depend more on luck than on methodology and expert judgment. In general, we conclude that, on their own, recent economic changes appear to have minor effects on life expectancy in industrialized countries, but that the effects of these changes are greater if they occur in conjunction with other major social and political changes. Keywords

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Shock Therapy versus Gradualism Reconsidered: Lessons from Transition Economies after 15 Years of Reforms

Cited by 115 publications

References 17 publications

Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and Growth: Evidence from Transition Economies

Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and Growth: Evidence from Transition Economies

Changes In Mortality Trends Of Road Traffic Injuries In Lithuania Over 1971-2014

Impact of Economic Conditions and Crises on Mortality and its Predictability

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