Short communication. Persistence of point crop yield subjective estimates

Abstract

The aim of this research was to investigate the persistence of annual crop yield point value subjective estimates, elicited from a series of interviews carried out on a wide group of farmers. Time persistence is a necessary condition of coherence and reliability in subjective crop yield probability estimation. The interviewed subjects gave estimates for point crop yield (mean, highest, most frequent and lowest possible). Limited relative differences for all variables were found, except for the lowest possible crop yield estimates, which had a broad dispersion. The results are deemed valuable in order to determine the level of trust in the techniques applied in obtaining data, and in their effectiveness in designing a farm decision support system (DSS) to enhance the outcome of farmers' decision making.

Elicitation of subjective crop yield PDF [probability density functions]

“…Results for the persistence of data, taken from the declared values of the mean (year 2000), lowest, highest and most frequent crop yields, have been analysed in Clop-Gallart and Juárez-Rubio (2006). Persistence criterion seemed to be verified for the mean m (year 2000), H and M declared crop yields, at least in a high percentage of the surveyed population.…”