Short/medium-term prediction for the aviation emissions in the en route airspace considering the fluctuation in air traffic demand

The assessment of local air pollution due to aircraft emissions at/near the airport is an important issue from the standpoint of environment and human health, but has not received due attention in China. In this paper, the pollutant emissions (i.e. HC, CO, NOx, SOx and PM) from aircraft during landing and take-off (LTO) cycles at Nanjing Lukou Airport (NKG) in 2016 were investigated using an improved method, which considered the taxi-in and –out time calculated based on the real data from the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), instead of using the referenced time recommended by ICAO. First, the pollutant emissions and their characteristics were studied from different perspectives. Second, two various mitigation measures of emissions were proposed, and the performance of emission reduction was analysed. Our analysis shows that: (1) A320 and B738 emitted the largest emissions at NKG; (2) pollutants were mainly emitted during the taxi mode, followed by climb mode; (3) B738 had the lowest emissions per (seat•LTO) among all aircraft, while CRJ had the lowest emissions per unit LTO; (4) shortening the taxiing time and upgrading aircraft engines are both effective measures to mitigate pollutant emissions.

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“…The REIs obtained by the above method fit the ISA condition at sea level. The REIs need converting to the real terms as follows [42,57,58…”

Section: Data Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characteristics and Mitigation Measures of Aircraft Pollutant Emissions at Nanjing Lukou International Airport (NKG), China

Zhu

Zhang

et al. 2020

PROMET

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“…However, there are also exceptions where it is necessary to transport the material faster. For this shipment, it was selected the air transport [1][2][3].…”

Section: Parameters Specificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Calculation of GHG Emissions in the Selected Air Traffic Company

Hlatká

Stopková

2018

MATEC Web Conf.

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“…A number of models for the evolution of air passengers and related emissions were proposed, as Ref. [18] or [22][23][24][25], which took into account the effects and issued projections for the future emissions and even the subsequent warming under different economic scenarios. The two studies Refs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The two studies Refs. [23,24], in which the 1996-2008 economic scenarios were considered, found that the introduction of the effects of technological progress could not achieve a stabilization of CO 2 emissions in the midterm (projections for 2008-2025). Such a stabilization was obtained in Ref.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of a Dynamic Model of Air Traffic Emissions to Technological and Environmental Factors

Buendia-Hernandez

Bevia

Alvarez-Garcia

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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In this study, we introduce a sensitivity analysis of modelled CO2 aviation emissions to changes in the model parameters, which is intended as a contribution to the understanding of the atmospheric composition stabilization issue. The two variable dynamic model incorporates the effects of the technological innovations on the emissions rate, the environmental feedback, and a non-linear control term on the passengers rate. The model parameters, estimated from different air traffic sources, are subject to considerable uncertainty. The stability analysis of Monte Carlo simulations revealed that, for certain values of the non-linear term parameter and depending on the type of flight, the passengers number at some equilibrium points exceeded its initial value, while the emissions level was below the initial corresponding one. The results of two global sensitivity analyses indicated that the influence of the non-linear term prevailed on the passengers number rate, followed distantly by the environmental feedback. For the emissions rate, the non-linear term contribution dominated, with the technological term influence placing second.

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Short/medium-term prediction for the aviation emissions in the en route airspace considering the fluctuation in air traffic demand

Cited by 18 publications

References 23 publications

Characteristics and Mitigation Measures of Aircraft Pollutant Emissions at Nanjing Lukou International Airport (NKG), China

Characteristics and Mitigation Measures of Aircraft Pollutant Emissions at Nanjing Lukou International Airport (NKG), China

Calculation of GHG Emissions in the Selected Air Traffic Company

Sensitivity of a Dynamic Model of Air Traffic Emissions to Technological and Environmental Factors

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