Short-Term Dynamic Ampacity Forecasting for the Fully Insulated Busbar Taped Joint

Tang, Liezheng; Ruan, Jiangjun; Chen, Rou

doi:10.1109/tpwrd.2023.3243046

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…In assessing the dynamic current carrying capacity of cables, an important step is the prediction of the environmental heating temperature, T j2 . For this purpose, we employ the Prophet model, which excels at decomposing time series data into seasonal, trend, holiday, and residual components [19][20][21]. This decomposition allows for separate forecasting of each type of data, with the final prediction result obtained by their superposition.…”

Section: Calculation Of Environmental Heating Temperature T J2mentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Term Ampacity Prediction Method for Cable Intermediate Joints Based on the Prophet Model

Zhang,

Liu,

Zeng

et al. 2024

Processes

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The development of power grids is hindered by the limited transmission capacity of cable equipment, necessitating the accurate prediction of dynamic ampacity for cable expansion. This study focuses on the 110 kV cable intermediate joint, employing radial and axial inversion techniques for real-time conductor temperature inversion. Utilizing the Prophet time series model, we predict environmental changes and propose a dynamic ampacity evaluation method for cable intermediate joints. Experimental validation confirms the model’s accuracy, with prediction errors under 10 K, demonstrating its potential for enhancing cable system reliability and power grid development.

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Section: Calculation Of Environmental Heating Temperature T J2mentioning

confidence: 99%