Short-term prediction of Betula airborne pollen concentration in Vigo (NW Spain) using logistic additive models and partially linear models

Cotos-Yáñez, Tomás R.; Rodríguez-Rajo, F. J.; Jato, M. V.

doi:10.1007/s00484-004-0203-9

Cited by 30 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…These linear regression models, using only weather variables for prediction, yield results showing a low predictive capacity. The ARIMA time-series model presents a high accuracy in the forecasting of the spore or pollen counts (Cotos-Yañez et al 2004). …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of meteorological factors on the levels of Alternaria spores on a potato crop

et al. 2010

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Alternaria solani Soraeur produces early blight in Solanum tuberosum L., leading to significant agricultural losses. The current study was carried out on the extensive potato crop situated in north-western of Spain during 2007, 2008 and 2009. In this area potato crops are the most important source of income. In this work we used a Hirst-type volumetric spore-trap for the aerobiological monitoring of Alternaria spores. The highest spore concentrations were recorded during the 2009 cycle (10,555 spores), and the lowest concentrations were recorded during the 2008 cycle (5,471 spores). Over the 3 years of study, the highest concentrations were registered during the last stage of the crop. The aim of the study was to observe the influence of meteorological factors on the concentration of Alternaria spores, which can lead to serious infection and early blight. Prediction of the stages during which a crop is particularly vulnerable to infection allows for adjustment of the application of fungicide and is of environmental and agricultural importance. For this reason, we tested three models (P-Days, DD and IWP) to predict the first treatment and decrease the negative effect that these spores have on potato crops. The parameter that showed the most significant correlation with spore concentrations was minimum temperature. We used ARIMA (autoregressive integrated model of running mean) time-series models to determine the forecast. We considered weather data as predictor variables and the concentration of spores on the previous day as the fixed variable.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of meteorological factors on the levels of Alternaria spores on a potato crop

et al. 2010

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“…Here, these factors were reflected in spore concentrations over preceding days. The proposed ARIMA time-series model (that takes Botrytis cinerea counts over the previous days as an autoregressive parameter) present a high accuracy in the forecasting of the B. cinerea spore counts (Rodríguez-Rajo et al, 2002;Cotos-Yañez et al, 2004).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The use of aerobiological methods for forecastingBotrytisspore concentrations in a vineyard

Rodríguez-Rajo

Jato

Fernández-González

et al. 2010

Grana

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Grey mould, caused by Botrytis cinerea, is one of the most common diseases in Galician vineyards. Knowledge of local airborne spore concentrations is of great value for developing models to predict fungal propagule concentrations, thus enabling phytosanitary treatments to be applied when a real risk of infection is detected.In order to develop an accurate model for forecasting airborne B. cinerea spore concentrations, a phenological and aerobiological survey was carried out in a vineyard located in Galicia (north-west Spain), from 2004 to 2008. Phenological observations were made on 20 vines of each of three grape varieties (Treixadura, Godello and Loureira) using the BBCH standardised phenological scale. A Hirst-type volumetric spore-trap was used for the aerobiological monitoring. The study sought to chart Botrytis spore concentrations as function of grapevine phenological stage.The highest spore concentrations over the grapevine cycle as a whole were recorded in 2008 (37299 spores), and the lowest in 2005 (1700 spores). In the five study years, the highest concentrations were registered during stage 8 (berry ripening), stage 7 (fruit development) and stage 5 (inflorescence emergence). The weather-related parameters displaying the most significant correlation with spore concentrations were dew point and relative humidity. ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Model of Running Mean) time-series models was used to forecast daily spore concentrations, considering B. cinerea spore concentrations and weather data as predictor variables.

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“…These linear regression models, using only weather variables for prediction, yield results showing a low predictive capacity (Escuredo et al, 2011). The ARIMA time-series model presents a high accuracy in the forecasting of the spore or pollen counts (Cotos-Yañez et al, 2004, Escuredo et al, 2011. We have tried many models, both 'pure' ARMA and ARIMA models and also models with additional predictors (weather variables).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dothistroma septosporum: spore production and weather conditions

2012

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Dothistroma septosporum, the causal agent of Dothistroma needle blight is a widespread fungus which infects more than 80 species of coniferous trees through the entire world. Spreading of the infection is strongly affected by climatic factors of each locality where it is recorded. We attempt to describe the concrete limiting climatic factors necessary for the releasing of conidia of D. septosporum and to find out the timing of its spore production within the year. For this purpose we used an automatic volumetric spore trap and an automatic meteorological station. We found that a minimum daily average temperature of 10 °C was necessary for any spore production, as well as a long period of high air humidity. The values obtained in the present study were a little bit higher than those previously published, which may arise questions about a possible changing trend of the behaviour in the development of the Dothistroma needle blight causal agent. We used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict the spore counts on the base of previous values of spore counts and dew point. For a locality from Hackerovka, the best ARIMA model was 1,0,0; and for a locality from Lanzhot, the best was 3,1,0.Key words: Red band needle blight; Dothistroma needle blight; automatic volumetric spore trap; spore production; climatic conditions. Resumen Dothistroma septosporum: producción de esporas y condiciones climáticasEl Dothistroma septosporum, el agente causal del tizón Dothistroma de las acículas, es un hongo ampliamente distribuido que infecta más de 80 especies de coníferas en el mundo. La propagación de la infección está fuertemente afectada por factores climáticos de cada localidad donde se registra. Tratamos de describir los factores limitantes necesarios para la liberación de los conidios de D. septosporum y averiguar el momento de la producción de esporas en el año. Para este fin se utilizó una trampa de esporas volumétrica y una estación meteorológica automáticas. Se ha encontrado que fue necesaria una temperatura media mínima diaria de 10 °C para cualquier producción de esporas, así como un largo período de alta humedad del aire. Los valores obtenidos en el presente estudio fueron un poco más altos que los publicados anteriormente, que pueden surgerir preguntas acerca de una posible tendencia cambiante de la conducta en el desarrollo del agente causal del tizón Dothistroma de las acículas. Se utilizaron modelos autorregresivos integrados media móvil (ARIMA) para predecir los conteos de esporas sobre la base de los valores anteriores de los recuentos de esporas y del punto de rocío. Para una localidad de Hackerovka, el mejor modelo ARIMA es 1.0.0 y para una localidad de Lanzhot, el mejor fue 3.1.0.Palabras clave: tizón rojo de acículas; tizón Dothistroma de aciculas; trampa de esporas volumétrico automático; producción de esporas; condiciones climáticas.

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Short-term prediction of Betula airborne pollen concentration in Vigo (NW Spain) using logistic additive models and partially linear models

Cited by 30 publications

References 22 publications

Effects of meteorological factors on the levels of Alternaria spores on a potato crop

Effects of meteorological factors on the levels of Alternaria spores on a potato crop

The use of aerobiological methods for forecastingBotrytisspore concentrations in a vineyard

Dothistroma septosporum: spore production and weather conditions

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