Should Probabilistic Design Replace Safety Factors?

Doorn, Neelke; Hansson, Oskar

doi:10.1007/s13347-010-0003-6

Cited by 51 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…Safety is often defined as the absence of risk. Doorn and Hansson (2010) argue, however, that the notion of risk itself is not that clear. There are several definitions of this concept, most of which are based on a capacity to assign probabilities to certain hazards.…”

Section: Risk and Safety In Synthetic Biology Applicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Following these observations, Doorn and Hansson (2010) argue that to design for safety does not only imply taking into account known risks but also designing for uncertainties and hazards that are not yet known (for example by using safety factors that can also deal with uncertainties). When it comes to risk and uncertainties in SynBio, the paradigms are different from traditional biotechnology.…”

Section: Risk and Safety In Synthetic Biology Applicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Food Warden: An Exploration of Issues in Distributing Responsibilities for Safe-by-Design Synthetic Biology Applications

2017

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The Safe-by-Design approach in synthetic biology holds the promise of designing the building blocks of life in an organism guided by the value of safety. This paves a new way for using biotechnologies safely. However, the Safe-by-Design approach moves the bulk of the responsibility for safety to the actors in the research and development phase. Also, it assumes that safety can be defined and understood by all stakeholders in the same way. These assumptions are problematic and might actually undermine safety. This research explores these assumptions through the use of a Group Decision Room. In this set up, anonymous and non-anonymous deliberation methods are used for different stakeholders to exchange views. During the session, a potential synthetic biology application is used as a case for investigation: the Food Warden, a biosensor contained in meat packaging for indicating the freshness of meat. Participants discuss what potential issues might arise, how responsibilities should be distributed in a forward-looking way, who is to blame if something would go wrong. They are also asked what safety and responsibility mean at different phases, and for different stakeholders. The results of the session are not generalizable, but provide valuable insights. Issues of safety cannot all be taken care of in the R&D phase. Also, when things go wrong, there are proximal and distal causes to consider. In addition, capacities of actors play an important role in defining their responsibilities. Last but not least, this research provides a new perspective on the role of instruction manuals in achieving safety.

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Section: Risk and Safety In Synthetic Biology Applicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Risk and Safety In Synthetic Biology Applicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Food Warden: An Exploration of Issues in Distributing Responsibilities for Safe-by-Design Synthetic Biology Applications

2017

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“…As observed, this greatly affects the evaluated ␤. As model uncertainties are difficult to assess, probabilistic and deterministic analyses need to be performed in parallel, as these types of uncertainties are incorporated in the required F det (Duncan 2000;Whitman 2000;Christian 2004;Doorn and Hansson 2011).…”

Section: Factors Affecting Total Safety Factor and Reliability Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multivariate stability assessment during staged construction

2016

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Abstract:For staging the construction of embankments on soft clay, an important aspect in deterministic or probabilistic stability analyses is the assessment of the representative average values and associated uncertainties for the undrained shear strength as the height of the embankment is sequentially increased. Assessments made prior to construction can be verified by performing observations during the construction phase. All relevant available information should be incorporated into an analysis to increase the level of confidence and the objectivity of the assessment. To this end, we apply an extended multivariate approach to assess the undrained shear strength using different indirect measurement methods during the staged construction of the Veda embankment (Sweden). This multivariate approach implies that uncertainties associated with the assessments are reduced, and objectively weighted averages are obtained. The resulting implications on the calculated deterministic safety factors and the probabilistically retrieved reliability indices of the embankment are thoroughly discussed in this work.Key words: statistical analysis, site investigation, shear strength, Bayesian statistics, multivariate analysis, probabilistic stability analysis.Résumé : Lorsqu'on planifie la construction de talus sur des sols mous, un aspect important des analyses de stabilité détermin-istes ou probabilistes est l'évaluation des valeurs moyennes caractéristiques et des incertitudes correspondantes associées à la résistance au cisaillement non drainée à mesure que la hauteur du talus est augmentée de manière séquentielle. Il est possible de vérifier les évaluations réalisées avant la construction en effectuant des observations durant la phase de construction. Il est nécessaire d'incorporer toutes les informations pertinentes disponibles dans une analyse pour augmenter le niveau de fiabilité et l'objectivité de l'évaluation. Pour ce faire, nous utilisons une approche étendue à variables multiples pour évaluer la résistance au cisaillement non drainée à l'aide de différentes méthodes de mesure indirectes durant la construction par étapes du talus ferroviaire de Veda (en Suède). Cette approche à variables multiples nécessite de réduire des incertitudes associées aux évalua-tions et de déterminer des moyennes objectivement pondérées. Les répercussions sur les facteurs de sécurité calculés et sur les indices de fiabilité obtenus de manière probabiliste caractérisant le talus sont décrites en détail dans la présente étude. [Traduit par la Rédaction] Mots-clés : analyse statistique, étude sur le terrain, résistance au cisaillement, statistique bayésienne, analyse à variables multiples, analyse de stabilité probabiliste.

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“…Despite recurrent pleas to switch from a "deterministic" to a probabilistic approach to design in hydraulic engineering, the prevalent design methodology is still based on the safety factor approach (Doorn and Hansson 2011). However, these safety factors are increasingly based on probabilistic calculations (Tsimopoulou et al 2011).…”

Section: Experiences and Examplesmentioning

confidence: 99%