Background:
Health status and life expectancy are important considerations for assessing potential benefits and harms of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programs particularly among older adults.
Methods:
We examined receipt of past-year CRC screening according to predicted 10-year mortality risk among 25,888 community-dwelling adults aged 65-84 years who were not up to date with screening in the nationwide National Health Interview Survey. Ten-year mortality risk was estimated using a validated index; from the lowest to highest quintiles of the index, risk was 12%, 24%, 39%, 58%, and 79%, respectively. We also examined the proportion of screening performed among adults with life expectancy <10 years.
Results:
Prevalence of past-year CRC screening was 39.5%, 40.6%, 38.7%, 36.4%, and 35.4%, from the lowest to highest quintile of 10-year mortality risk. Odds of CRC screening did not differ between adults in the lowest vs. highest quintile (adjusted OR 1.05, 95% CI: 0.93-1.20). One-quarter (27.9%) of past-year CRC screening occurred in adults with life expectancy <10 years, and more than half (50.7%) of adults age 75-84 years had 10-year mortality risk ≥50% at the time of screening. In an exploratory analysis, invasive but not non-invasive screening increased as 10-year mortality risk increased (p<0.05) among adults 70-79 years.
Conclusion:
Past-year CRC screening does not differ by predicted 10-year mortality risk. An age-based approach to CRC screening results in under-screening of older, healthier adults and over-screening of younger adults with chronic conditions. Personalized screening with incorporation of individual life expectancy may increase the value of CRC screening programs.