Shut and re-open: the role of schools in the spread of COVID-19 in Europe

Abstract

We investigate the effect of school closure and subsequent reopening on the transmission of COVID-19, by considering Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and German states as case studies. By comparing the growth rates in daily hospitalisations or confirmed cases under different interventions, we provide evidence that the effect of school closure is visible as a reduction in the growth rate approximately 9 days after implementation. Limited school attendance, such as older students sitting exams or the partial return of younger year groups, does not appear to significantly affect community transmission. A large-scale reopening of schools while controlling or suppressing the epidemic appears feasible in countries such as Denmark or Norway, where community transmission is generally low. However, school reopening can contribute to significant increases in the growth rate in countries like Germany, where community transmission is relatively high. Our findings underscore the need for a cautious evaluation of reopening strategies that ensure low classroom occupancy and a solid infrastructure to quickly identify and isolate new infections.

The Role of Children in SARS-CoV-2 Transmission

“…Education institutions for older youth and adults were permitted to reopen only for exam students, and with a reduced schedule. 35,48,49 At the time, the incidence was 322 new daily cases per 10 million inhabitants, but with a consistent downward trend and an effective reproduction number of 0.89. 28,29 By the second week of school opening, 80% to 90% of primary students, and 50% of preschool and kindergarten students had returned to school.…”

“…52 On May 18, students aged 12 to 16 years returned to school, 48 when the incidence was 131 new daily cases for 10 million inhabitants, with an effective reproduction number of 0.77. 28,29 The Role of Children in SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table On May 27, students aged 17 to 19 returned to school, 48 when the incidence was 93 new daily cases for 10 million inhabitants, with an effective reproduction number of 0.83. 28,29 On June 12, Northern Jutland reported 5 cases in three schools; 17 classes were quarantined accordingly.…”

Australian Strategic Partnerships in Remote Education

“…Educational responses to the COVID-19 pandemic have varied around the world. As the pandemic spread, many countries closed schools abruptly (Flaxman et al, 2020;Stage et al, 2020;Swartz & Chetty, 2020), cancelled exams (UK Department for Education, 2020) and began offering different forms of online, distance, and remote education (Hamilton et al, 2020;Lake & Dusseault, 2020;Zhang et al, 2020). Other nations, such as Australia (Leask & Hooker, 2020), were more reticent to close schools and educational facilities, citing limited evidence to warrant the detrimental economic impacts, educational disadvantages, learning losses (Azevedo et al, 2020) and risks to vulnerable students that were expected to occur during online learning.…”

An evidence-based theory of change for reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission in reopened schools

“…Current evidence suggests that partially re-opening schools has not led to significant school outbreaks in the UK (Public Health England, 2020;Rapid Investigation Team, 2020) or elsewhere (Fontanet et al, 2020;Gudbjartsson et al, 2020). Nonetheless, modelling suggests that reopening schools could lead to second infection waves unless community test-trace-isolate (TTI) measures achieve good coverage (Panovska-Griffiths et al, 2020) and evidence from across Europe suggests that the impact of reopening schools is likely to vary with broader community rates of transmission (Stage et al, 2020).…”

“…Given the importance of schools reopening to children and young people's education, social development and wellbeing but the need to minimise the risks associated with this, it is important that reopened schools implement effective measures to minimise risks of transmission particular in contexts where rates of community transmission are significant (Stage et al, 2020).…”