SummaryInteratrial block (IAB) is associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). The aim of this retrospective study was to investigate the association of a combination of IAB and the CHADS 2 score, an AF-related risk score for ischemic stroke, with new onset AF in patients in sinus rhythm. A total of 1,571 patients (803 males, 768 females; mean age: 58 ± 16 years) were included in this study. IAB was defined as a P-wave duration > 120 ms in the 12-lead electrocardiogram, and a high CHADS 2 score as ≥ 2 points. During the mean follow-up period of 4.8 ± 0.7 years, new onset AF occurred in 122 patients (16.1 per 1,000 patient-years). The incidence of new onset AF was 4.0 per 1,000 patient-years in patients with no IAB and a low CHADS 2 score, and 44.0 per 1,000 patient-years in patients with IAB and a high CHADS 2 score. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, the hazard ratio for IAB and a high CHADS 2 score compared with no IAB and a low CHADS 2 score was 12.18 (95% confidence interval: 6.22-23.87, P < 0.001), after adjustment for age, sex, coronary artery disease, valvular heart disease, smoking, medications, and echocardiographic parameters. In conclusion, IAB and a high CHADS 2 score independently and synergistically predict new onset AF in patients in sinus rhythm, indicating an approximately 12-fold higher risk in patients with both IAB and a high CHADS 2 score. Patients meeting these criteria should have more aggressive early intervention to prevent AF. (Int Heart J 2016; 57: 580-585) Key words: Electrocardiogram, Prognosis A trial fibrillation (AF) is a common cardiac arrhythmia in the general population 1) and is associated with an increased risk of death, hospitalization, stroke, and heart failure.2-5) Therefore, it is crucial to identify patients who are at increased risk of developing new onset AF. Interatrial block (IAB) is manifested in the 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) by a P-wave duration > 120 ms, 6) and has been associated with increased risk of AF.7-11) Currently, the CHADS 2 score is widely used for predicting future ischemic stroke in patients with AF. 12) Although AF is more prevalent in subjects with high CHADS 2 scores than in those with low CHADS 2 scores, 13,14) the combined role of IAB and the CHADS 2 score in new onset AF in patients in sinus rhythm remains unclear. Therefore, in the present study, we investigated the association of a combination of IAB and high CHADS 2 score on new onset AF in patients in sinus rhythm.
MethodsStudy population: Our database of ECG recordings of patients who were hospitalized in Henan Provincial People's Hospital for any therapy between March 1, 2010 and March 15, 2010 was retrospectively reviewed. If patients had more than one ECG recording during the index hospitalization, only the first recording was analyzed to measure P-wave duration, and all of the ECG recordings were analyzed to detect AF. Pwave duration was measured using a resting 12-lead ECG (high-pass filter 0.05 Hz, low-pass filter 150 Hz, 25 mm/s, 10 mm/mv) in all pati...