Signals, strongholds, and support: Political party protests in South Africa

Abstract

South African politics are in a period of transition: the dominant African National Congress (ANC) is in decline, support for opposition parties has been rising, and voters have been disengaging rapidly from the electoral process. As protest movements have become more common and more powerful, established political parties have increasingly led their own protests, often addressing the same issues that citizens rise up about. This phenomenon has been understudied but has important ramifications for the future of South African politics. This article addresses this gap in the literature, arguing that party-led protests can be interpreted as costly signals of credible commitments to address the very issues that citizens are upset about. In a time when established parties are losing support, they may turn to these costly protests to demonstrate their commitment to addressing the needs of the people. Using counts of party-led protests and riots as well as election outcomes in the 2004, 2009, 2014, and 2019 national elections, this article demonstrates that party-led protests primarily target stronghold municipalities. In doing so, they positively correlate with vote-shares during elections. This boon accrues primarily to the opposition parties, but not the incumbent ANC.

Qual é o papel dos partidos políticos nos protestos sociais? Tendências recentes na Argentina e no Chile

“…Sin embargo, como afirma Borbáth, la tesis sobre la normalización de la protesta "se centró principalmente en el grado en que las formas no institucionales se convencionalizaron" (Borbáth, 2023, p. 1). Se sabe menos sobre el uso que los actores institucionales, como los partidos políticos, hacen de las protestas (pero véase, Semenov et al, 2016;Somma, 2018;Borbáth & Hutter, 2021;Lewis, 2021). De hecho, como sostienen Borbáth y Hutter: "las fuerzas impulsoras clave [de la transformación del sistema de partidos] pueden no solo haber cambiado en términos programáticos sino también en la forma organizativa y el repertorio de acción" (Borbáth & Hutter, 2021, p. 896).…”

Let the people know, and the country will be safe: FOI models in South Africa and Zimbabwe

“…South Africa has been dominated by the ruling African National Congress (ANC) since the birth of democracy in 1994, while Zimbabwe has been dominated by Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) since independence in 1980. While the ANC's support is gradually dwindling, which led to opposition parties such as Democratic Alliance and Economic Freedom Fighters making roads into municipalities (including the country's biggest metros) (Lewis, 2021), ZANU-PF's tactics to promote post elections violence and its ongoing effort to sponsor factions in opposition parties continues to jeopardise political competition (Freedom House, 2023).…”