Significant spike in excess mortality in England in winter 2014/15 – influenza the likely culprit

Abstract

Significant increases in excess all-cause mortality, particularly in the elderly, were observed during the winter of 2014/15 in England. With influenza A(H3N2) the dominant circulating influenza A subtype, this paper determines the contribution of influenza to this excess controlling for weather. A standardised multivariable Poisson regression model was employed with weekly all-cause deaths the dependent variable for the period 2008-2015. Adjusting for extreme temperature, a total of 26 542 (95% CI 25 301-27 804) deaths in 65+ and 1942 (95% CI 1834-2052) in 15-64-year-olds were associated with influenza from week 40, 2014 to week 20, 2015. This is compatible with the circulation of influenza A(H3N2). It is the largest estimated number of influenza-related deaths in England since prior to 2008/09. The findings highlight the potential health impact of influenza and the important role of the annual influenza vaccination programme that is required to protect the population including the elderly, who are vulnerable to a severe outcome.

Investigating the impact of influenza on excess mortality in all ages in Italy during recent seasons (2013/14–2016/17 seasons)

“…In the UK, estimates of the annual number of deaths directly attributable to influenza range from 4 to 14,000 per year, with an average of around 8,000 per year (Public Health England, 2014). Moreover, influenza-attributable excess deaths using the FluMomo method for UK were reported in 2014/ 15 (Pebody et al, 2018). UK estimates, in terms of absolute numbers, were higher compared to Italian data, in all ages and in particular in the elderly (26,542 vs 19,475 respectively).…”

Stalling life expectancy in the UK

“…The mortality monitoring agency EuroMOMO (www.euromomo.eu) reported excess winter deaths in 2015 across much of Europe, including the UK. Most of these were in older people and were attributed largely to flu, based on corroborative information on morbidity, the flu strain in circulation, and low efficacy of the vaccine 1314. The pattern of excess winter deaths reported for other years is also similar across much of Europe and points to the role of flu, pneumonia, and respiratory disease more generally in some years.…”

Analysis of Primary Care Computerized Medical Records (CMR) Data With Deep Autoencoders (DAE)

“…Despite these difficulties, the potential for identifying trends in CMR data are significant. Predictive algorithms may help tackle higher mortality observed in winter months [9], or forecast unexpected spikes in mortality rates due to the spread of influenza [10].…”