SimCOVID: Open-Source Simulation Programs for the COVID-19 Outbreak

Abstract

This paper presents open-source computer simulation programs developed for simulating, tracking, and estimating the COVID-19 outbreak. The programs consist of two separate parts: one set of programs built in Simulink with a block diagram display, and another one coded in MATLAB as scripts. The mathematical model used in this package is the SIR, SEIR, SEIRD, and SEIRV models represented by a set of differential–algebraic equations. It can be easily modified to develop new models for the problem. A generalized method is adopted to simulate worldwide outbreaks in an efficient, fast, simple, and visualized way. To get a good tracking of the virus spread, a sum of sigmoid steps was proposed to capture any dynamic changes in the data. The parameters used for the input (infection and recovery rate functions) are computed using the parameter estimation tool in MATLAB. Several statistic methods were applied for the rate function including linear, mean, root-mean-square, and standard deviation. In addition, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system is employed and proposed to train the model and predict its output. Another program is presented for visualizing the COVID-19 data for each country worldwide in different dimensional views. The programs can be used as a teaching tool and for research studies.

Simulink Methods to Simulate COVID-19 Outbreak Using Fractional Order Models

“…Several analytical methods have been put out in the literature to model the pandemic, such as the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model [2], susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) [3], susceptible-infected-recovered-dead (SIRD) [4], and many more. The need for creating an open-source computer program that can do a time-domain simulation of the dynamic spread of the virus was studied by [5] for integer order. There are a few articles that explain the numerical methods for solving the COVID-19 outbreak [6].…”

Study Models of COVID-19 in Discrete-Time and Fractional-Order

“…We also study the SIR and SEIR systems using fractional calculus in discrete time, which have memory features and are useful in demonstrating many biological phenomena and facts with nonlinear dynamics behaviors. The expansion of the results obtained from the continuous-time representations of the SIR and SEIR COVID-19 systems to the fractional order in the discrete-time case [23] is clearly motivated by the general trend of using computerassisted numerical simulations and applications, biology, and cryptography [24,25]. In the special cases of fractional order systems, estimation methods lead to new systems and expand the possibilities of representing and simulating such systems.…”

Editorial: Agent-based simulation to transform a society with good sense of adopting mitigation measures in containing virus spreading

“…An interactive tool thus must be developed with scientific rigor. Therefore, SEIR was the best choice for developing such a visualization tool that would help users to develop good sense of fighting any infectious virus (Abdulrahman, 2023).…”