Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph; Ewert, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Alderman, Phillip D.; Anothai, Jakarat; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Cammarano, Davide; Challinor, Andrew J.; Deryng, Delphine; Sanctis, Giacomo De; Doltra, Jordi; Fereres, E.; Folberth, Christian; García-Vila, Margarita; Gayler, Sebastian; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Hunt, L. A.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Jabloun, Mohamed; Jones, Curtis D.; Kersebaum, Kurt Christian; Kimball, Bruce A.; Koehler, Ann‐Kristin; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Nendel, Claas; O’Leary, G.; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Ottman, Michael J.; Palosuo, Taru; Prasad, P. V. Vara; Priesack, Eckart; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Reynolds, M.P.; Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi; Rötter, Reimund P.; Schmid, Erwin; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Shcherbak, Iurii; Stehfest, Elke; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Thorburn, Peter J.; Waha, Katharina; Wall, Gerard W.; Wang, Enli; White, Jeffrey W.; Wolf, J.; Zhao, Zhigan; Zhu, Yan

doi:10.1038/nclimate3115

Cited by 430 publications

(291 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Unobserved possible nonlinear time trends at the county level were controlled by using county-by-year linear and quadratic terms and unobserved time-constant variations between counties using a county fixed effect. Consistent with other studies based on statistical model [20], CO 2 effects were not considered. Therefore, results in this study reflect the possible largest impacts from climate change.…”

Section: Statistical Modelsupporting

confidence: 60%

Adaptive Effectiveness of Irrigated Area Expansion in Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yields in Northern China

2017

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Abstract:To improve adaptive capacity and further strengthen the role of irrigation in mitigating climate change impacts, the Chinese government has planned to expand irrigated areas by 4.4% by the 2030s. Examining the adaptive potential of irrigated area expansion under climate change is therefore critical. Here, we assess the effects of irrigated area expansion on crop yields based on county-level data during 1980-2011 in northern China and estimate climate impacts under irrigated area scenarios in the 2030s. Based on regression analysis, there is a statistically significant effect of irrigated area expansion on reducing negative climate impacts. More irrigated areas indicate less heat and drought impacts. Irrigated area expansion will alleviate yield reduction by 0.7-0.8% in the future but associated yield benefits will still not compensate for greater adverse climate impacts. Yields are estimated to decrease by 4.0-6.5% under future climate conditions when an additional 4.4% of irrigated area is established, and no fundamental yield increase with an even further 10% or 15% expansion of irrigated area is predicted. This finding suggests that expected adverse climate change risks in the 2030s cannot be mitigated by expanding irrigated areas. A combination of this and other adaptation programs is needed to guarantee grain production under more serious drought stresses in the future.

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Section: Statistical Modelsupporting

confidence: 60%

Adaptive Effectiveness of Irrigated Area Expansion in Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yields in Northern China

2017

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“…agriculture | climate change | crop | sorghum | warming S orghum (Sorghum bicolor) is predominantly grown in the arid and semiarid regions of the world, where heat stress is known to induce significant yield losses (1)(2)(3)(4). Globally, sorghum is positioned as the fifth most economically important cereal and plays a critical role in providing food, fodder, and fuel (5,6).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Disaggregating sorghum yield reductions under warming scenarios exposes narrow genetic diversity in US breeding programs

Tack

Lingenfelser

Jagadish

2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Historical adaptation of sorghum production to arid and semiarid conditions has provided promise regarding its sustained productivity under future warming scenarios. Using Kansas field-trial sorghum data collected from 1985 to 2014 and spanning 408 hybrid cultivars, we show that sorghum productivity under increasing warming scenarios breaks down. Through extensive regression modeling, we identify a temperature threshold of 33°C, beyond which yields start to decline. We show that this decline is robust across both field-trial and on-farm data. Moderate and higher warming scenarios of 2°C and 4°C resulted in roughly 17% and 44% yield reductions, respectively. The average reduction across warming scenarios from 1 to 5°C is 10% per degree Celsius. Breeding efforts over the last few decades have developed high-yielding cultivars with considerable variability in heat resilience, but even the most tolerant cultivars did not offer much resilience to warming temperatures. This outcome points to two concerns regarding adaption to global warming, the first being that adaptation will not be as simple as producers' switching among currently available cultivars and the second being that there is currently narrow genetic diversity for heat resilience in US breeding programs. Using observed flowering dates and disaggregating heat-stress impacts, both pre-and postflowering stages were identified to be equally important for overall yields. These findings suggest the adaptation potential for sorghum under climate change would be greatly facilitated by introducing wider genetic diversity for heat resilience into ongoing breeding programs, and that there should be additional efforts to improve resilience during the preflowering phase.agriculture | climate change | crop | sorghum | warming

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“…Positive benefits of adaptation are also predicted, offsetting expected declines in wheat, maize, and rice yield globally by 7-15% [92]. There is agreement across simulation, controlled environment, and field experiments that the grain yield of wheat is expected to decrease 5-6% • C −1 despite including the additional benefits of CO 2 fertilization [3,11,[93][94][95]. There is, however, little information about the sensitivity of wheat during its various phenophases and the impact of projected higher night temperatures.…”

Section: Addressing the Challengesmentioning

confidence: 77%

“…Although average yields for wheat [3,11] and presumably other cereals are expected to decline with global warming, the effects will differ among regions, localities, and years. It is therefore important to document the likely climatic changes for individual locations to define the scale of adaptation required.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges and Responses to Ongoing and Projected Climate Change for Dryland Cereal Production Systems throughout the World

et al. 2018

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Abstract:Since the introduction of mechanized production in both developed and developing countries, crops and their management have undergone significant adaptation resulting in increased productivity. Historical yield increases in wheat have occurred across most regions of the world (20-88 kg ha −1 year −1 ), but climate trends threaten to dampen or reverse these gains such that yields are expected to decrease by 5-6% despite rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. Current and projected climatic factors are temporally and spatially variable in dryland cereal production systems throughout the world. Productivity gains in wheat in some locations have been achieved from traditional agronomic practices and breeding. Continued improvement in all cereal production regions and locations of the world requires technical advances, including closer monitoring of soils, water conservation strategies, and multiple sowing times using different crops to reduce risks. The management of disease, pests, and weeds will be an added challenge, especially in areas of higher precipitation. Excellent progress has been achieved in Asia and there is much potential in Sub-Saharan Africa. Technical solutions seem within our grasp but must be implemented in the context of variable social, economic, regulatory, and administrative constraints, providing opportunities for cross fertilization and global collaboration to meet them.

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Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

Abstract: This is a repository copy of Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods.

Cited by 430 publications

References 46 publications

Adaptive Effectiveness of Irrigated Area Expansion in Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yields in Northern China

Adaptive Effectiveness of Irrigated Area Expansion in Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yields in Northern China

Disaggregating sorghum yield reductions under warming scenarios exposes narrow genetic diversity in US breeding programs

Challenges and Responses to Ongoing and Projected Climate Change for Dryland Cereal Production Systems throughout the World

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