Simple Theoretical Models and Population Predictions

Detection of Delayed Density Dependence: Comment

“…To the contrary, over 90% of the variability in budworm and parasitoid rates of change is explained by a simple second‐order model of their mutual interaction (Berryman 1991). Other examples of second‐order dynamics that have been shown to result from parasitoid–prey interactions include the spruce needleminer ( Epinotia tedella ) in Denmark (Munster‐Swendsen 1985, Berryman and Munster‐Swendsen 1994), the gypsy moth ( Lymantria dispar ) in Yugoslavia (Montgomery and Wallner 1988), and the Douglas‐fir tussock moth ( Orgyia pseudotsugata ) in Western North America () (see also Berryman 1995, 1996). Another forest insect characterized by strong second‐order feedback is the larch budmoth ( Zeiraphera diniana ) in the Alps (, Turchin 1990), but in this case the second‐order dynamics seem to be the result of interactions with the host plant (Baltensweiler and Fischlin 1988).…”