Simplified ionospheric regional model for telecommunication applications

2015

This paper discusses recent advances in the implementation and validation of the Solar Wind driven autoregression model for Ionospheric short-term Forecast (SWIF) that is running in the European Digital upper Atmosphere Server (DIAS) to release ionospheric forecasting products for the European region. The upgraded implementation plan expands SWIF's capabilities in the high latitude ionosphere while the extensive validation tests in the two solar cycles 23 and 24 allow the comprehensive analysis of the model's performance in all terms. Focusing on disturbed conditions, the results demonstrate that SWIF's alert detection algorithm forecasts the occurrence of ionospheric storm time disturbances with probability of detection up to 98% under intense geomagnetic storm conditions and up to 63% when storms of moderate intensity are also considered. The forecasts show relative improvement over climatology of about 30% in middle-to-low and high latitudes and 40% in middle-to-high latitudes. This indicates that SWIF is able to capture on average more than one third (35%) of the storm-associated ionospheric disturbances. Regarding the accuracy, the averaged mean relative error during storm conditions usually ranges around 20% in middle-tolow and high latitudes and 24% in the middle-to-high latitudes. Our analysis shows clearly that SWIF alert criteria were designed to effectively anticipate the ionospheric storm time effects that occurred under specific interplanetary conditions, e.g., cloud Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) and/or associated sheaths. The results provide valuable input in advancing our ability in predicting the space weather effects in the ionosphere for future developments, and further work is proposed to enhance the model forecasting efficiency to support operational applications.

Section: Swif's Concept and Implementation Plan Of The Enhanced Versionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ionospheric forecasts for the European region for space weather applications

2015

“…The Simplified Ionospheric Regional Model (SIRM) is a longterm prediction model that provides the key ionospheric characteristics, such as foF2, M(3000)F2, h'F, foF1, and foE, valid within limited areas (Zolesi et al 1993). It is based on a Fourier analysis of the monthly median values of these characteristics from a number of ionospheric stations operating for several years in Europe.…”

Section: The Enhanced Version Of the Simplified Ionospheric Regional mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A software routine for a Fourier Synthesis is applied at every geographical point spaced 1°in latitude and 1°in longitude over the European region to generate the numerical grid of the ionospheric characteristics. The model yields considerable economy in data storage and computation of the characteristics for a given position, instant of time, and solar activity as compared with global and/or other regional ionospheric models (Zolesi et al 1993).…”

Section: The Enhanced Version Of the Simplified Ionospheric Regional mentioning

confidence: 99%

The European Ionosonde Service: nowcasting and forecasting ionospheric conditions over Europe for the ESA Space Situational Awareness services

Kutiev

et al. 2015

Self Cite

The Earth's ionosphere is a magnetoionic medium imbedded in a background neutral atmosphere, exhibiting very interesting refractive properties, including anisotropy, dispersion, and dissipation. As such, it poses a challenge for several radio systems that make use of signal transmission through all or some portion of the medium. It is important therefore to develop prediction systems able to inform the operators of such systems about the current state of the ionosphere, about the expected effects of forthcoming space weather disturbances and about support long-term planning of operations and data post-processing projects for improving modelling and mitigation techniques. The European Space Agency (ESA) in the framework of the Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Programme has supported the development of the European Ionosonde Service (EIS) that releases a set of products to characterise the bottomside and topside ionosphere over Europe. The Service is based on a set of prediction models driven by data from ground-based ionosondes and supportive data from satellites and spacecraft. The service monitors the foF2 and the electron density profile up to the height of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) at European middle and high latitudes and provides estimates for forthcoming disturbances mainly triggered by geo-effective Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). The model's performance has been validated and based on these results, it was possible to issue together with the products, quality metrics characterizing the product's reliability. The EIS products meet the requirements of various SSA service domains, especially the transionospheric radio link and the spacecraft operations. Currently, the service is freely available to all interested users, and access is possible upon registration.

“…SIRMUP (Zolesi et al 2004;Tsagouri et al 2005) is implemented online to provide nowcasting ionospheric products and services for the European region through DIAS system (Belehaki et al 2006b(Belehaki et al , 2007 and for the central Mediterranean area through the -Geomagnetic Indices Forecasting and Ionospheric Nowcasting Tools (GIFINT) services (http:// gifint.ifsi.rm.cnr.it/) that is integrated with the SWENET. In SIRMUP, the real-time values of foF2 at one location are determined from the SIRM model (Zolesi et al 1993) by using the effective sunspot number, R12eff, instead of R 12 . R12eff is calculated through the comparison of SIRM estimates with actual measurements.…”

Section: Geomagnetic Predictionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Progress in space weather modeling in an operational environment

Bergeot

et al. 2013

This paper aims at providing an overview of latest advances in space weather modeling in an operational environment in Europe, including both the introduction of new models and improvements to existing codes and algorithms that address the broad range of space weather's prediction requirements from the Sun to the Earth. For each case, we consider the model's input data, the output parameters, products or services, its operational status, and whether it is supported by validation results, in order to build a solid basis for future developments. This work is the output of the Sub Group 1.3 ''Improvement of operational models'' of the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action ES0803 ''Developing Space Weather Products and services in Europe'' and therefore this review focuses on the progress achieved by European research teams involved in the action.