Simulated changes in daily rainfall intensity due to the enhanced greenhouse effect: implications for extreme rainfall events

Gordon, H. B.; Whetton, Peter; Pittock, A. Barrie; Fowler, Anthony; Haylock, M. R.

doi:10.1007/bf00209165

Cited by 148 publications

(91 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…These results are useful in formulating a better prediction mechanism of intense rainfall events in India and aid disaster prevention and preparedness measures. We note that climate model simulations indicate doubling of CO 2 increases extreme weather events (Gordon et al 1992;Palmer and Raisanen 2002). The study underlines the urgent need for proactive steps to be taken to mitigate disasters due to extreme weather events in this warming environment.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 73%

Indian Ocean Dipole Modulates the Number of Extreme Rainfall Events over India in a Warming Environment

Ajayamohan

Rao

2008

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

112

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This study shows that high resolution rainfall data indicate an increase in number of extreme rainfall events over India in the last few decades. Unravelling the mechanism behind this increasing number of extreme rainfall events in central India is important as these intense rainfall events cause floods and related damage to the life and property of more than 400 million people living in this region. The natural disaster risk hotspots analysis projected the central Indian region as the most vulnerable region for floods in the Indian subcontinent. Here, we present first evidence that the extreme rainfall events in central India in recent decades are strongly modulated by cool sea surface temperature anomalies in the south-eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. The ongoing warming trend of the Indian Ocean coupled with the increase in the number of Indian Ocean Dipole years in recent decades suggests more frequent extreme rainfall events and related hazards in central India in forthcoming years.Corresponding author and present affiliation: R.S. Ajayamohan, Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis,

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 73%

Indian Ocean Dipole Modulates the Number of Extreme Rainfall Events over India in a Warming Environment

Ajayamohan

Rao

2008

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

112

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“…Alternatively, high inorganic N levels beneath stands of senesced B. tectorum, combined with B. tectorum induced increases in N cycling (e.g., Norton et al 2008), could result in increased N losses through gaseous losses (Peterjohn and Schlesinger 1990, Davidson et al 1993, Hungate et al 1997 or leaching and erosion during large, intense late season rainfall events (Loik et al 2004, Welter et al 2005. Although relatively large (>15 mm), late-season events are common in this ecosystem (1-2 mo −1 yr −1 ; NCDC 2005), climate change-predicted increases in the occurrence of large, intense precipitation events (Gordon et al 1992, Easterling et al 2000, IPCC 2001) could exacerbate losses of labile N in B. tectorum dominated communities.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Plant phenology and life span influence soil pool dynamics: Bromus tectorum invasion of perennial C3–C4 grass communities

Adair

Burke

2010

Plant Soil

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In water-limited ecosystems, small rainfall events can have dramatic impacts on microbial activity and soil nutrient pools. Plant community phenology and life span also affect soil resources by determining the timing and quantity of plant nutrient uptake, storage, and release. Using the replacement of C 3 -C 4 perennial grasses by the invasive annual grass Bromus tectorum as a case study, we investigated the influence of phenology and life span on pulse responses and sizes of soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) pools. We hypothesized that available and microbial C and N would respond to small rainfall events and that B. tectorum invasion would increase soil C and N pools by reducing inter-annual plant C and N storage and alter seasonal pool dynamics by changing the timing of plant uptake and litter inputs. We tested our hypotheses by simulating small rainfall events in B. tectorum and perennial grass communities three times during the growing season. Microbial pools responded strongly to soil moisture and simulated rainfall events, but labile C and N pools were affected weakly or not at all. All pools were larger beneath B. tectorum than perennial grasses. Soil C and N pools increased after senescence in both communities. Our results suggest that transforming a perennial into a B. tectorum dominated community increases the overall size of soil C and N pools by decreasing plant C and N storage and changes seasonal pool dynamics by altering dominant plant phenology. Our results indicate strong roles for water, life span and phenology in controlling soil C and N pools and begin to elucidate the biogeochemical effects of altering plant community phenology and life span.

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“…Support for this idea comes from a range of studies with several different approaches to characterise the precipitation statistics. For model (GCM), Gordon et al (1992) found a more average yearly maximum six-hour precipitation P max6 . Unlike some other useful statistics related widespread increase in average rain intensity (averto heavy precipitation, such as the frequency of aged over the days with at least 0.2 mm of precipprecipitation events exceeding a given threshold, itation) than in the mean precipitation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…It is produced as a result of either stratiform condensation induced by expli-are strongly controlled by the driving GCMs. The lack of daily precipitation data for the GCMs citly resolved ascent, or of deep convection parameterised with a Kuo-type scheme (Kuo, 1965; prevents us from determining whether this is also true for the changes in extreme precipitation. 1974).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in average and extreme precipitation in two regional climate model experiments

Räisänen¹,

JOELSSON²

2001

Tellus A

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Two regional climate model experiments for northern and central Europe are studied focussing on greenhouse gas-induced changes in heavy precipitation. The average yearly maximum oneday precipitation P max shows a general increase in the whole model domain in both experiments, although the mean precipitation P mean decreases in the southern part of the area, especially in one of the experiments. The average yearly maximum six-hour precipitation increases even more than the one-day P max , suggesting a decrease in the timescale of heavy precipitation. The contrast between the P mean and P max changes in the southern part of the domain and the lack of such a contrast further north are affected by changes in wet-day frequency that stem, at least in part, from changes in atmospheric circulation. However, the yearly extremes of precipitation exhibit a larger percentage increase than the average wet-day precipitation. The signal-to-noise aspects of the model results are also studied in some detail. The 44 km grid-box-scale changes in P max are very heavily affected by inter-annual variability, with an estimated standard error of about 20% for the 10-year mean changes. However, the noise in P max decreases sharply toward larger horizontal scales, and large-area mean changes in P max can be estimated with similar accuracy to those in P mean . Although a horizontal averaging of model results smooths out the small-scale details in the true climate change signal as well, this disadvantage is, in the case of P max changes, much smaller than the advantage of reduced noise.generally point toward a continued upward trend

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Simulated changes in daily rainfall intensity due to the enhanced greenhouse effect: implications for extreme rainfall events

Cited by 148 publications

References 22 publications

Indian Ocean Dipole Modulates the Number of Extreme Rainfall Events over India in a Warming Environment

Indian Ocean Dipole Modulates the Number of Extreme Rainfall Events over India in a Warming Environment

Plant phenology and life span influence soil pool dynamics: Bromus tectorum invasion of perennial C3–C4 grass communities

Changes in average and extreme precipitation in two regional climate model experiments

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