Simulated climate change effects on soybean production using two crop modules in RZWQM2

Abstract

The ability to predict climate change effects on crop yield through field experiments and crop modeling is essential for developing mitigation strategies. The objective of this study was to compare two different crop modules (CROPGRO and HERMES) in the Root Zone Water Quality Model 2 (RZWQM2) for predicting climate change effects on soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] production. The modules were previously calibrated for measured temperature responses using data from a 4-yr open-top chamber experiment (2015)(2016)(2017)(2018) in North Carolina. Both crop modules simulated similar climate change effects in terms of yield and biomass by the end of Year 2100 (2083-2099) using 40 general circulation model (GCM) projections and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), compared with the simulations using current baseline (2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018). For both modules, much greater reductions in biomass and seed yield were simulated under RCP8.5 than under RCP4.5 due to higher air temperature. In addition, both modules predicted lower variability of biomass and seed yield across these GCMs under irrigated than under rainfed conditions. CROPGRO predicted a greater positive climate change effect in response to the projected higher precipitation and increased atmospheric CO 2 (compared with baseline conditions) than HERMES. Soybean production will likely benefit more from the projected high precipitation and elevated CO 2 under rainfed conditions than under irrigated conditions. Due to much higher simulated yield under irrigation than under rainfed conditions, supplementary irrigation may be an effective mitigation strategy to maintain soybean yield; however, adjusting sowing dates appear to have little effect on soybean production. INTRODUCTIONCrop models have been used for more than two decades to simulate climate change effects on soybean [Glycine max (L.

Sowing date changes phenological development, plastochron index, and grain yield of soybeans under Cerrado conditions

“…Later sowing may occur in periods with low regularity of rainfall, which can also influence the development of soybean plants (Silva et al, 2018b). This fact could also be one of the hypotheses of developmental delay (greater plastochron), agreeing with Ma et al (2021), that the water deficit in the soil, even if slight, delays the vegetative development of soybean.…”

Higher Temperatures Decrease Fruit Size in Strawberry Growing in the Subtropics

“…The impact of temperature on plant development can be due to higher average temperatures or short-term increases in temperatures above the optimum range [4,5]. Some crop models predict higher yields in the short-term with climate change and lower yields in the long-term, while other models predict lower yields across both periods or even under current conditions [6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14]. There can be difficulties in predicting yields under climate change because the changes in CO 2 and temperature, etc.…”

Climate change increases net CO2assimilation in the leaves of strawberry, but not yield

“…Some models predict higher yields in the shortterm with climate change and lower yields in the long-term, while others predict lower yields across both periods or under current conditions (Amani-Male et al, 2024;Benlloch-González et al, 2019;Challinor et al, 2014;Hammer et al, 2020;Heide & Sønsteby, 2020;Lollato et al, 2020;Ma et al, 2021;Minoli et al, 2022;Mistry et al, 2017;Petersen, 2019;Ray et al, 2019;Schlenker & Roberts, 2009;Vogel et al, 2019;Wang et al, 2022aWang et al, , 2020bYin & Leng, 2022;Zhang et al, 2017). Warming is also expected to decrease net cropping frequency (the number of cropping cycles per year at a given location) across the globe by 4.2 ± 2.5% by 2050 (Zhu et al, 2022).…”