Simulating a multi-phase tephra fall event: inversion modelling for the 1707 Hoei eruption of Mount Fuji, Japan

Magill, Christina; Mannen, Kazutaka; Connor, L.; Bonadonna, Costanza; Connor, Charles B.

doi:10.1007/s00445-015-0967-2

Cited by 20 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 28 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Fujisan volcano, ~100 km west-southwest of the city, is the most likely to produce tephra falls in greater Tokyo. During the 1707 Hoei eruption, Fujisan deposited tephra thicknesses of ~40 mm in central Tokyo (Magill et al, 2015;Miyaji et al, 2011), a >10,000 yr event for our simulations. For Jakarta, the hazard is not dominated by one particular volcano (Fig.…”

Section: Hazard Scoresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating relative tephra fall hazard and risk in the Asia-Pacific region

Jenkins

Magill

Blong³

2018

Geosphere

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

With increasing population densities and expanding urban boundaries, the potential for explosive volcanic eruptions to have adverse impacts upon urban areas is on the rise. This is particularly true for volcanoes along subduction zones, because they are almost exclusively explosive and often coincident with large populations. Explosive eruption hazards such as tephra fall have the potential to affect very large areas and numbers of people; populations in volcanic areas may therefore be exposed to tephra falls from more than one volcano. In this study we have simulated large numbers of plausible explosive eruptions of Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 4 or greater for each of 141 volcanoes in the Asia-Pacific region. Tephra fall footprints are aggregated for 16 major cities, according to their probability of occurrence. This addresses an emerging need for international agencies and organizations to conduct regional-scale assessments, where at-risk areas can be compared on a like-for-like basis. Hazard in cities near subduction zones is two to three orders of magnitude greater than for those farther away. By combining our hazard estimates with indicators describing the exposure and vulnerability of people and infrastructure, tephra fall risk scores were calculated for each city. Risk is evaluated separately for human populations and potential economic impact, with the highest human risk scores calculated for Manila and the highest economic scores for Tokyo. The volcanoes with the greatest hazard contribution in the very populous cities of Manila, Tokyo, and Jakarta were identified as Taal (Manila), Fujisan (Tokyo), and six volcanoes equally (Jakarta). While this study provides a transparent and consistent method for assessing regional volcanic hazard and risk, there are challenges associated with the data-poor setting and we conclude by discussing what is required in order to improve regional tephra fall hazard and risk assessments. This study provides a regional-scale assessment that cannot replace hazard and risk information provided locally by official organizations.

show abstract

Section: Hazard Scoresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating relative tephra fall hazard and risk in the Asia-Pacific region

Jenkins

Magill

Blong³

2018

Geosphere

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The physical model Tephra2 [ Bonadonna et al , ; Connor and Connor , ; Volentik et al , ; Magill et al , ] is used to simulate downwind transport and deposition of tephra. Tephra2 implements an analytical solution to the advection diffusion equation and simulates a vertically discretized atmosphere.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Efficient inversion and uncertainty quantification of a tephra fallout model

White

Connor

et al. 2017

JGR Solid Earth

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

An efficient and effective inversion and uncertainty quantification approach is proposed for estimating eruption parameters given a data set collected from a tephra deposit. The approach is model independent and here is applied using Tephra2, a code that simulates advective and dispersive tephra transport and deposition. The Levenburg‐Marquardt algorithm is combined with formal Tikhonov and subspace regularization to invert eruption parameters; a linear equation for conditional uncertainty propagation is used to estimate posterior parameter uncertainty. Both the inversion and uncertainty analysis support simultaneous analysis of the full eruption and wind field parameterization. The combined inversion/uncertainty quantification approach is applied to the 1992 eruption of Cerro Negro and the 2011 Kirishima‐Shinmoedake eruption. While eruption mass uncertainty is reduced by inversion against tephra isomass data, considerable uncertainty remains for many eruption and wind field parameters, such as plume height. Supplementing the inversion data set with tephra granulometry data is shown to further reduce the uncertainty of most eruption and wind field parameters. The eruption mass of the 2011 Kirishima‐Shinmoedake eruption is 0.82 × 1010 kg to 2.6 × 1010 kg, with 95% confidence; total eruption mass for the 1992 Cerro Negro eruption is 4.2 × 1010 kg to 7.3 × 1010 kg, with 95% confidence. These results indicate that eruption classification and characterization of eruption parameters can be significantly improved through this uncertainty quantification approach.

show abstract

“…Several inversion studies have been made recently (e.g., Mannen, 2014;Magill et al, 2015). The Tephra2 model is suitable for relatively small-scale tephra falls, because wind directions and speeds are defined only at the vent position.…”

Section: Tephra2 Simulation Features Of Tephra2 Simulation Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Volcanic Hazards Assessment Support System for the Online Hazard Assessment and Risk Mitigation of Quaternary Volcanoes in the World

Takarada

2017

Front. Earth Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Volcanic hazards assessment tools are essential for risk mitigation of volcanic activities. A number of offline volcanic hazard assessment tools have been provided, but in most cases, they require relatively complex installation procedure and usage. This situation causes limited usage of volcanic hazard assessment tools among volcanologists and volcanic hazards communities. In addition, volcanic eruption chronology and detailed database of each volcano in the world are essential key information for volcanic hazard assessment, but most of them are isolated and not connected to and with each other. The Volcanic Hazard Assessment Support System aims to implement a user-friendly, WebGIS-based, open-access online system for potential hazards assessment and risk-mitigation of Quaternary volcanoes in the world. The users can get up-to-date information such as eruption chronology and geophysical monitoring data of a specific volcano using the direct link system to major volcano databases on the system. Currently, the system provides 3 simple, powerful and notable deterministic modeling simulation codes of volcanic processes, such as Energy Cone, Titan2D and Tephra2. The system provides deterministic tools because probabilistic assessment tools are normally much more computationally demanding. By using the volcano hazard assessment system, the area that would be affected by volcanic eruptions in any location near the volcano can be estimated using numerical simulations. The system is being implemented using the ASTER Global DEM covering 2790 Quaternary volcanoes in the world. The system can be used to evaluate volcanic hazards and move this toward risk-potential by overlaying the estimated distribution of volcanic gravity flows or tephra falls on major roads, houses and evacuation areas using the GIS-enabled systems. The system is developed for all users in the world who need volcanic hazards assessment tools.

show abstract

Simulating a multi-phase tephra fall event: inversion modelling for the 1707 Hoei eruption of Mount Fuji, Japan

Cited by 20 publications

References 28 publications

Evaluating relative tephra fall hazard and risk in the Asia-Pacific region

Evaluating relative tephra fall hazard and risk in the Asia-Pacific region

Efficient inversion and uncertainty quantification of a tephra fallout model

The Volcanic Hazards Assessment Support System for the Online Hazard Assessment and Risk Mitigation of Quaternary Volcanoes in the World

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About