Simulating basin-scale linkages of the food-energy-water nexus with reduced complexity modeling

Bokhari, Hussain H.; Najafi, Ehsan; Dawidowicz, Jorin; Wuchen, Liushan; Maxfield, Nicolas; Vörösmarty, Charles J.; Fekete, Balazs M.; Corsi, Fabio; Sanyal, Swarnali; Lin, Tzu-Shun; Miara, Ariel; Tuler, Seth P.

doi:10.3389/fenvs.2023.1077181

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 56 publications

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“…With respect to digital elevation models, for example, the highest available resolutions are not always optimal for ecosystem modeling or terrain representation (e.g., [ 46 , 47 , 48 ]). Several studies have also found that, in addition to advantages in computational efficiencies and implementation costs, reduced-complexity models provide more accurate and useful results in many environmental modeling contexts (e.g., [ 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 49 , 50 ]).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Embedded Complexity of Evolutionary Sequences

Phillips

2024

Entropy

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Multiple pathways and outcomes are common in evolutionary sequences for biological and other environmental systems due to nonlinear complexity, historical contingency, and disturbances. From any starting point, multiple evolutionary pathways are possible. From an endpoint or observed state, multiple possibilities exist for the sequence of events that created it. However, for any observed historical sequence—e.g., ecological or soil chronosequences, stratigraphic records, or lineages—only one historical sequence actually occurred. Here, a measure of the embedded complexity of historical sequences based on algebraic graph theory is introduced. Sequences are represented as system states S(t), such that S(t − 1) ≠ S(t) ≠ S(t + 1). Each sequence of N states contains nested subgraph sequences of length 2, 3, …, N − 1. The embedded complexity index (which can also be interpreted in terms of embedded information) compares the complexity (based on the spectral radius λ1) of the entire sequence to the cumulative complexity of the constituent subsequences. The spectral radius is closely linked to graph entropy, so the index also reflects information in the sequence. The analysis is also applied to ecological state-and-transition models (STM), which represent observed transitions, along with information on their causes or triggers. As historical sequences are lengthened (by the passage of time and additional transitions or by improved resolutions or new observations of historical changes), the overall complexity asymptotically approaches λ1 = 2, while the embedded complexity increases as N2.6. Four case studies are presented, representing coastal benthic community shifts determined from biostratigraphy, ecological succession on glacial forelands, vegetation community changes in longleaf pine woodlands, and habitat changes in a delta.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Embedded Complexity of Evolutionary Sequences

Phillips

2024

Entropy

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Applying the framework to study climate-induced extremes on food, energy, and water systems (C-FEWS): The role of engineered and natural infrastructures, technology, and environmental management in the United States Northeast and Midwest

Vörösmarty

Melillo

Wuebbles

et al. 2023

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Change to global climate, including both its progressive character and episodic extremes, constitutes a critical societal challenge. We apply here a framework to analyze Climate-induced Extremes on the Food, Energy, Water System Nexus (C-FEWS), with particular emphasis on the roles and sensitivities of traditionally-engineered (TEI) and nature-based (NBI) infrastructures. The rationale and technical specifications for the overall C-FEWS framework, its component models and supporting datasets are detailed in an accompanying paper (Vörösmarty et al., this issue). We report here on initial results produced by applying this framework in two important macro-regions of the United States (Northeast, NE; Midwest, MW), where major decisions affecting global food production, biofuels, energy security and pollution abatement require critical scientific support. We present the essential FEWS-related hypotheses that organize our work with an overview of the methodologies and experimental designs applied. We report on initial C-FEWS framework results using five emblematic studies that highlight how various combinations of climate sensitivities, TEI-NBI deployments, technology, and environmental management have determined regional FEWS performance over a historical time period (1980–2019). Despite their relative simplicity, these initial scenario experiments yielded important insights. We found that FEWS performance was impacted by climate stress, but the sensitivity was strongly modified by technology choices applied to both ecosystems (e.g., cropland production using new cultivars) and engineered systems (e.g., thermoelectricity from different fuels and cooling types). We tabulated strong legacy effects stemming from decisions on managing NBI (e.g., multi-decade land conversions that limit long-term carbon sequestration). The framework also enabled us to reveal how broad-scale policies aimed at a particular net benefit can result in unintended and potentially negative consequences. For example, tradeoff modeling experiments identified the regional importance of TEI in the form wastewater treatment and NBI via aquatic self-purification. This finding, in turn, could be used to guide potential investments in point and/or non-point source water pollution control. Another example used a reduced complexity model to demonstrate a FEWS tradeoff in the context of water supply, electricity production, and thermal pollution. Such results demonstrated the importance of TEI and NBI in jointly determining historical FEWS performance, their vulnerabilities, and their resilience to extreme climate events. These infrastructures, plus technology and environmental management, constitute the “policy levers” which can actively be engaged to mitigate the challenge of contemporary and future climate change.

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System Dynamics Modeling: Technological Solution to Evaluating Cold-Chain Meat Packaging Scenarios

Lagarda-Leyva,

Hernández-Valdez,

Bueno-Solano

2024

Systems

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A cold-chain meat packaging project was developed for a meat product company in northwestern Mexico that moves high volumes of fresh meat into national and international markets. The objective of the present research is to evaluate the supply process for three types of thermo-shrinkable polyethylene bags to provide a technological solution for high-volume meat packaging based on a graphical user interface. A system dynamics (SD) methodology is developed in seven stages to generate a technological solution: (1) system mapping; (2) causal diagram construction; (3) stock, flow modeling, and equations; (4) model simulation; (5) model validation; (6) scenarios and multicriteria analysis; and (7) graphical user interface development. The main result for the company was a technological solution that could communicate with decision-makers and the proposed graphical user interface. Future optimistic and pessimistic scenarios were self-evaluated based on the current situation related to three thermo-shrinkable bags used for selling high volumes of fresh meat. In these solutions, previously simulated costs and savings can be implemented in a real situation. Quantitative graphical user interface data can be observed to adequately manage box and bag inventories and minimize costs. Using SD enables the development of technological solutions in complex environments with robust simulations and models that offer data to people interested in the system under study.

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Simulating basin-scale linkages of the food-energy-water nexus with reduced complexity modeling

Cited by 3 publications

References 56 publications

Embedded Complexity of Evolutionary Sequences

Embedded Complexity of Evolutionary Sequences

Applying the framework to study climate-induced extremes on food, energy, and water systems (C-FEWS): The role of engineered and natural infrastructures, technology, and environmental management in the United States Northeast and Midwest

System Dynamics Modeling: Technological Solution to Evaluating Cold-Chain Meat Packaging Scenarios

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