Simulating Changes in Fires and Ecology of the 21st Century Eurasian Boreal Forests of Siberia

Brazhnik, Ksenia; Hanley, Charles; Shugart, Herman H.

doi:10.3390/f8020049

Cited by 13 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…Therefore, it is likely that atmospheric nitrogen deposition increased even in a scenario where actual emissions did not change. On the other hand, wild forest fire events in southcentral Siberia have multiplied and intensified during the last decades and are expected to follow this trend in the 21st century as well (Brazhnik et al, 2017;Malevsky-Malevich et al, 2008). Their effect on atmospheric nutrient dynamics will be complex.…”

Section: Atmospheric Input and Lake Phytoplankton Biomass Limitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Winter atmospheric nutrient and pollutant deposition on Western Sayan Mountain lakes (Siberia)

et al. 2021

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Abstract. The world map of anthropogenic atmospheric nitrogen deposition and its effects on natural ecosystems is not described with equal precision everywhere. In this paper, we report atmospheric nutrient, sulfate and spheroidal carbonaceous particle (SCP) deposition rates, based on snowpack analyses of a formerly unexplored Siberian mountain region. Then, we discuss their potential effects on lake phytoplankton biomass limitation. We estimate that the nutrient depositions observed in the late-season snowpack (40 ± 16 mg NO3-N m−2 and 0.58 ± 0.13 mg TP-P m−2; TP for total phosphorous) would correspond to yearly depositions lower than 119 ± 71 mg NO3-N m−2 yr−1 and higher than 1.71 ± 0.91 mg TP-P m−2 yr−1. These yearly deposition estimates would approximately fit the predictions of global deposition models and correspond to the very low nutrient deposition range, although they are still higher than world background values. In spite of the fact that such a low atmospheric nitrogen deposition rate would be enough to induce nitrogen limitation in unproductive mountain lakes, phosphorus deposition was also extremely low, and the resulting lake water N : P ratio was unaffected by atmospheric nutrient deposition. In the end, the studied lakes' phytoplankton appeared to be split between phosphorus and nitrogen limitation. We conclude that these pristine lakes are fragile sensitive systems exposed to the predicted climate warming, increased winter precipitation, enhanced forest fires and shifts in anthropogenic nitrogen emissions that could finally couple their water chemistry to that of atmospheric nutrient deposition and unlock temperature-inhibited responses of phytoplankton to nutrient shifts.

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Section: Atmospheric Input and Lake Phytoplankton Biomass Limitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Winter atmospheric nutrient and pollutant deposition on Western Sayan Mountain lakes (Siberia)

et al. 2021

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“…Recent simulations for the Russian boreal forest with the SIBBORK model (Brazhnik and Shugart 2015) have simulated contagious effects including orographic shadinga south-facing slope in a deep valley is compositionally and structurally different from a south-facing slope without shading without the north-facing opposite valley side (Brazhnik and Shugart 2016). The SIBBORK model has also been applied to one of the principal contagion effects in boreal forests, wildfire (Brazhnik et al 2017). Generally, the inclusion of spatial effects in individual-based models has been limited by data for parameter estimation and not by modeling limitations.…”

Section: Macro-scale (Regional-scale) Applicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Gap models across micro- to mega-scales of time and space: examples of Tansley’s ecosystem concept

et al. 2020

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Background: Gap models are individual-based models for forests. They simulate dynamic multispecies assemblages over multiple tree-generations and predict forest responses to altered environmental conditions. Their development emphases designation of the significant biological and ecological processes at appropriate time/space scales. Conceptually, they are with consistent with A.G. Tansley's original definition of "the ecosystem". Results: An example microscale application inspects feedbacks among terrestrial vegetation change, air-quality changes from the vegetation's release of volatile organic compounds (VOC), and climate change effects on ecosystem production of VOC's. Gap models can allocate canopy photosynthate to the individual trees whose leaves form the vertical leaf-area profiles. VOC release depends strongly on leaf physiology by species of these trees. Leaf-level VOC emissions increase with climate-warming. Species composition change lowers the abundance of VOC-emitting taxa. In interactions among ecosystem functions and biosphere/atmosphere exchanges, community composition responses can outweigh physiological responses. This contradicts previous studies that emphasize the warming-induced impacts on leaf function. As a mesoscale example, the changes in climate (warming) on forests including pest-insect dynamics demonstrates changes on the both the tree and the insect populations. This is but one of many cases that involve using a gap model to simulate changes in spatial units typical of sampling plots and scaling these to landscape and regional levels. As this is the typical application scale for gap models, other examples are identified. The insect/climatechange can be scaled to regional consequences by simulating survey plots across a continental or subcontinental zone. Forest inventories at these scales are often conducted using independent survey plots distributed across a region. Model construction that mimics this sample design avoids the difficulties in modelling spatial interactions, but we also discuss simulation at these scales with contagion effects. Conclusions: At the global-scale, successful simulations to date have used functional types of plants, rather than tree species. In a final application, the fine-scale predictions of a gap model are compared with data from micrometeorological eddy-covariance towers and then scaled-up to produce maps of global patterns of evapotranspiration, net primary production, gross primary production and respiration. New active-remote-sensing instruments provide opportunities to test these global predictions.

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“…Later on, Camarero and Catalan reckoned this threshold as ~100 µg DIN-N•l -1 in lake water (Camarero and Catalan, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-125 Preprint. (Brazhnik et al, 2017;Malevsky-Malevich et al, 2008). Their effect on atmospheric nutrient dynamics will be complex.…”

Section: Atmospheric Input and Lake Phytoplankton Biomass Limitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Winter atmospheric nutrients and pollutants deposition on West Sayan mountain lakes (Siberia)

Diaz-de-Quijano¹,

Ageev²,

Ivanova³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. The world map of anthropogenic atmospheric nitrogen deposition and its effects on natural ecosystems is not described with equal precision everywhere. In this paper, we report atmospheric nutrient, sulphate and spheroidal carbonaceous particles (SCPs) deposition rates, based on snowpack analyses, of a formerly unexplored Siberian mountain region. Then, we discuss their potential effects on lake phytoplankton biomass limitation. We estimate that the nutrient depositions observed in the late season snowpack (40 ± 16 mg NO3-N × m−2 and 0.58 ± 0.13 mg TP-P · m−2) would correspond to yearly depositions lower than 119 ± 71 mg NO3-N · m−2 · y−1 and higher than 1.71 ± 0.91 mg TP-P · m−2 · y−1. These yearly deposition estimates would approximately fit the predictions of global deposition models and correspond to the very low nutrient deposition range although they are still higher than world background values. In spite of the fact that such low atmospheric nitrogen deposition rate would be enough to induce nitrogen limitation in unproductive mountain lakes, the extremely low phosphorus deposition would have made the bioavailable N : P deposition ratio to be frankly high. In the end, lake phytoplankton appeared to be hanging on the fence between phosphorus and nitrogen limitation, with a trend towards nitrogen limitation. We conclude that slight imbalances in the nutrient deposition might have important effects on the ecology of these lakes under the expected scenario of climate warming, increased winter precipitation, enhanced forest fires and shifts in anthropogenic nitrogen emissions.

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Simulating Changes in Fires and Ecology of the 21st Century Eurasian Boreal Forests of Siberia

Cited by 13 publications

References 57 publications

Winter atmospheric nutrient and pollutant deposition on Western Sayan Mountain lakes (Siberia)

Winter atmospheric nutrient and pollutant deposition on Western Sayan Mountain lakes (Siberia)

Gap models across micro- to mega-scales of time and space: examples of Tansley’s ecosystem concept

Winter atmospheric nutrients and pollutants deposition on West Sayan mountain lakes (Siberia)

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