Simulating climate change impacts on T. aman (BR‐22) rice yield: a predictive approach using DSSAT model

Abstract

Climate change has added a new dimension to the uncertainty in rice (Oryza sativa L.) yield worldwide, and Bangladesh in particular. The present study estimated the potential impacts of climate change on the yield of T. aman (Transplanted aman, BR-22) rice variety for 12 representative districts in Bangladesh using the DSSAT 4.0 (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) model. Available data on soil and typical crop management practice for T. aman rice were used in the simulations. The daily weather inputs required for this model were generated using the PRECIS (Predicting Regional Climate Impact Studies) model. The model predicted an average yield of T. aman cultivars for selected locations in comparison to the baseline year 2008 are +5.04, +6.06 and −32.43% for the year 2030, 2050 and 2070, respectively. Changes of monthly average temperatures were found to be primarily responsible for the reduction in rice yield. Variability in rainfall pattern over the growing period of T. aman rice also affected the yield. Furthermore, model outcomes envisaged that climate change may make rice yield more susceptible to its transplanting date, forecasting a significant change in yield as the transplanting date is shifted from beginning to the end of July. These outcomes may provide valuable insight into the potential impacts of climate change on rice yield and adequate adaptive measures to mitigate the adverse effect of future climate change in Bangladesh as well as other rice-growing countries.

Evaluation of DSSAT model (CERES rice) on rice production: A review

“…Hasan et al [17] suggested the predicted crop yields (BR-22) in the validation period was in close agreement with the observed yields (9.90 < RMSE < 14.87; 0.71 < R2 < 0.82).…”

“…[16] 335. 31 [23] 175 kg/ha (TDK8) 4.67 Saythong Vilayvong (2014) [23] 84 kg/ha (TDK11) 2.67 KaushikSar (2017) [24] 266.72 kg/ha 1.46 M. Ray (2018) [20] 0.817 T/ha 14.94 Ravikant Chandrvavanshi (2019) [27] 0.35% NT Son (2016) [28] 11.7% Hasan (BR22) [17] 26.02% (Rajshahi) 9.90% (Barishal) Ranjit K Jha(2020) [29] 2.73 0.62 Kadiyala (2014) [35] 0.57T/ha 10.30 0.97 Anthesis Days (AD)…”

Rice varietal selection in Bangladesh: Does it matter who in the farm household makes the decisions?

“…Boro is dry season irrigated rice cultivated in planted in December-February and harvested in April-May and Aus is planted in March-April and harvested in July-August (Hossain et al, 2006). On average in 2017/ 2018, the yield of Aman, Aus and Boro rice was 2.19, 2.13 and 3.98 t ha −1 , respectively (Hasan and Rahman, 2019).…”

Long-term spatio-temporal variability and trends in rainfall and temperature extremes and their potential risk to rice production in Bangladesh

“…Crop production is partly controlled by rainfall and temperature and partly by non-climatic factors, such as areas of irrigated crops, development of new crop varieties, crop prices, access to markets and labour among others. Many studies [e.g., [38][39][40][41][42][43] have assessed the impacts of climate variability on rice production in Bangladesh. It is important to note that previous studies have focused either on the yield of Boro rice, or their assessment was regardless of the country's representative climatic characteristics [44].…”

“…It is important to note that previous studies have focused either on the yield of Boro rice, or their assessment was regardless of the country's representative climatic characteristics [44]. For example, although Aman rice has the largest acreage (48.4%) with a production of 38% rice grain [45], studies on impacts of climate variability for Aman yield have been limited [43].…”