Simulating deep CO 2 emission reduction in transport in a general equilibrium framework: The GEM-E3T model

Karkatsoulis, Panagiotis; Siskos, Pelopidas; Paroussos, Leonidas; Capros, Pantélis

doi:10.1016/j.trd.2016.11.026

Cited by 77 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…The transport sector has been included in integrated assessment models such as Targets IMage Energy Regional (TIMER), Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES), Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact (MESSAGE), General Equilibrium Model for Economy-Energy-Environment (GEM-E3), IMACLIM-R, and The Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45]. Taking AIM/CGE as an example, the transport sector is represented at a highly aggregated level, without technology details or behavior factors such as mode preference, travel cost, and travel time.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The contribution of transport policies to the mitigation potential and cost of 2 °C and 1.5 °C goals

Zhang

Fujimori

Hanaoka

2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The transport sector contributes around a quarter of global CO 2 emissions; thus, low-carbon transport policies are required to achieve the 2 • C and 1.5 • C targets. In this paper, representative transport policy scenarios are structured with the aim of achieving a better understanding of the interaction between the transport sector and the macroeconomy. To accomplish this, the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Transport (AIM/Transport) model, coupled with a computable general equilibrium model (AIM/CGE), is used to simulate the potential for different transport policy interventions to reduce emissions and cost over the period 2005-2100. The results show that deep decarbonization in the transport sector can be achieved by implementing transport policies such as energy efficiency improvements, vehicle technology innovations particularly the deployment of electric vehicles, public transport developments, and increasing the car occupancy rate. Technological transformations such as vehicle technological innovations and energy efficiency improvements provide the most significant reduction potential. The key finding is that low-carbon transport policies can reduce the carbon price, gross domestic product loss rate, and welfare loss rate generated by climate mitigation policies to limit global warming to 2 • C and 1.5 • C. Interestingly, the contribution of transport policies is more effective for stringent climate change targets in the 1.5 • C scenario, which implies that the stronger the mitigation intensity, the more transport specific policy is required. The transport sector requires attention to achieve the goal of stringent climate change mitigation.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The contribution of transport policies to the mitigation potential and cost of 2 °C and 1.5 °C goals

Zhang

Fujimori

Hanaoka

2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…A solution to this limitation is to couple a detailed bottom-up model of the transport sector with a CGE model. This is the approach followed by Schäfer and Jacoby (2005), Schäfer and Jacoby (2006), Sceia et al (2012) and Karkatsoulis et al (2017) for simulating decarbonization pathways in transportation. The three modelling approaches are illustrated by the various contributions to the special section of Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, volume 55, on model-based long-term transport scenarios, or in the comparison of transport decarbonization modelling by Pietzcker et al (2014).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lowering CO2 emissions in the Swiss transport sector

Thalmann

Vielle

2019

Swiss J Economics Statistics

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In Switzerland, transportation represents 41% of CO 2 emissions from energy combustion (2016), a much higher share than in the European Union (EU) (28%) or even the USA (34%). While total Swiss CO 2 emissions decreased by 10% between 1990 and 2016, CO 2 emissions from transport increased by 4.5% over the same period (all data from UNFCCC database). Our projections (Vielle and Thalmann, Updated emissions scenarios without measures, 1990measures, -2025measures, , Tech. rep., 2017 show that the contribution of the transport sector would remain constant in a scenario taking into account climate and energy policy measures already implemented or adopted in 2016. In the EU, several initiatives have already been introduced to limit the use of petroleum products in transportation. This paper presents deep decarbonization pathways for Switzerland that demand a strong contribution from the transport sector. We find that a preferential treatment of transportation fuels raises the welfare cost of decarbonization by about 18% relative to a uniform tax on all fossil fuels. This is of similar magnitude as the preferential treatment of large CO 2 emitters through an emissions trading system. We also find that the preferential treatment leads to a share of fossil fuels in total energy for road transportation in 2050 which is approximately twice as high as in the uniform treatment.

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“…Different types of EV (battery EVs, hybrid EVs, and plug-in hybrid EVs) have been compared to determine the vehicle technology that is likely to dominate in the coming decades [10]. Because integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been extensively used to explore decarbonizing pathways in the transport sector [2,3,[14][15][16][17][18][19][20], representations of technological advancement, consumer preferences, and increased market shares of EVs have been input to global IAMs [5,[21][22][23]. Current research clearly indicates the overwhelming importance of the role of transport electrification in a low-carbon transition.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of transport electrification in global climate change mitigation scenarios

Zhang

Fujimori

2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

212

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Electrification is widely considered an attractive solution for reducing the oil dependency and environmental impact of road transportation. Many countries have been establishing increasingly stringent and ambitious targets in support of transport electrification. We conducted scenario simulations to depict the role of transport electrification in climate change mitigation and how the transport sector would interact with the energy-supply sector. The results showed that transport electrification without the replacement of fossil-fuel power plants leads to the unfortunate result of increasing emissions instead of achieving a low-carbon transition. While transport electrification alone would not contribute to climate change mitigation, it is interesting to note that switching to electrified road transport under the sustainable shared socioeconomic pathways permitted an optimistic outlook for a low-carbon transition, even in the absence of a decarbonized power sector. Another interesting finding was that the stringent penetration of electric vehicles can reduce the mitigation cost generated by the 2°C climate stabilization target, implying a positive impact for transport policies on the economic system. With technological innovations such as electrified road transport, climate change mitigation does not have to occur at the expense of economic growth. Because a transport electrification policy closely interacts with energy and economic systems, transport planners, economists, and energy policymakers need to work together to propose policy schemes that consider a cross-sectoral balance for a green sustainable future.

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Simulating deep CO 2 emission reduction in transport in a general equilibrium framework: The GEM-E3T model

Cited by 77 publications

References 22 publications

The contribution of transport policies to the mitigation potential and cost of 2 °C and 1.5 °C goals

The contribution of transport policies to the mitigation potential and cost of 2 °C and 1.5 °C goals

Lowering CO2 emissions in the Swiss transport sector

The role of transport electrification in global climate change mitigation scenarios

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