Simulating Demography and Human Development Dynamics

Caselles, Antonio; Soler, David; García, María Teresa Sanz; Micó, Joan C.

doi:10.1080/01969722.2014.929347

Cited by 5 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…The starting point of the demographic model is the model presented by Micó et al [29] without age structure, where all variables depend on time , refers to female and refers to male: - (16) Where POPL i is the total population per sex, RFER i is the birth rate per sex, RDEF i is the death rate per sex, and RINM i and REMM i are the immigration and emigration rate, respectively. Previous works have demonstrated that the demographic rates depend on the well-being indices of the UN [15,30] and on the environmental quality index [13].…”

Section: The Demographic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In [15,30] a combination of cosines is chosen to fit the oscillation observed in historical data about demographic rates. However, in [16] the logistic function is considered as producing the best approximation.…”

Section: Demographic Ratesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Next, residuals are checked for randomness and normality through the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. It is worth noting an improvement in the adjustment of the birth and death rates with respect to existing models [13,15,16,30], since the corresponding determination coefficients increase.…”

Section: Demographic Ratesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A stochastic dynamical social model involving a human happiness index

García

Caselles

Micó

et al. 2018

Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics

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This paper presents a new human happiness index built through five dimensions: development, freedom, solidarity, justice and peace. These five dimensions are evaluated through quantitative variables obtained from the Human Development Reports, World Data Bank and Eurostat. The new happiness index has been built following the guidelines set by the Human Development Reports of the UN for the construction of quality indices, and it has been compared on a set of 13 EU countries with the Overall Life Satisfaction Index, which is used by the UN. Moreover, the new index has been included in a dynamic mathematical model through the demographic rates to study the evolution of the population. The obtained model has been calibrated for the period 2004-2009 and validated for the period 2010-2015 for the case of Spain. Finally, the model has been used to maximize the happiness index in Spain for the period 2016-2030, with the conclusion that to achieve this purpose, it is necessary to invest in education, research and development.

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Section: The Demographic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Demographic Ratesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A stochastic dynamical social model involving a human happiness index

García

Caselles

Micó

et al. 2018

Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics

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“…Moreover, in [4], an analysis about the forecasting limits of the model is not done with other variables, such as the dependency ratio and the life expectancy at birth (see Section 4 for more details). In addition, an advantage of the PPDM is that population pyramid dynamics can be linked mathematically through other social variables related to well-being [5][6][7][8] or happiness [9], due to the change rates time dependence appearing explicitly in the model. Particularly, Ref.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Population Pyramid Dynamics Model and Its Analytical Solution. Application Case for Spain

Micó

2022

Mathematics

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This paper presents the population pyramid dynamics model (PPDM) to study the evolution of the population pyramid of a determined country or society, deducing as a crucial objective its exact analytical solution. The PPDM is a first-order linear partial differential equation whose unknown variable is the population density (population per age unit) depending on time and age, jointly an initial condition in the initial time and a boundary condition given by the births in the zero age. In addition, the dynamical patterns of the crude birth, death, immigration and emigration rates depending on time, jointly with the mathematical pattern of the initial population pyramid depending on ages, take part of the PPDM. These patterns can be obtained from the historical data. An application case of the PPDM analytical solution is presented: Spain, in the 2007–2021 period for its validation, and in the 2021–2026 period for its future forecasting. This application case also permits to obtain the forecasting limits of the PPDM by comparing the historical data with those provided by the PPDM. Other variables that can be obtained from the historical population pyramids data, such as the dependency ratio and the life expectancy at birth, are considered.

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“…Caselles et al (1998) present an application to a complex real case (control unemployment in a country). But with this same methodology have already been solved problems such as the environment in Spain (Sanz et al, 2016), to get a demographical stable society in Austria (Sanz et al 2013) or Spain (Sanz et al, 2014 ) or increase the life expectancy in Spain (Caselles et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Methodology for Modeling and Optimizing Social Systems

Caselles

Soler

García

et al. 2020

Cybernetics and Systems

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A system methodology to modeling and optimizing social systems is presented. It allows constructing dynamical models formulated stochastically, i.e., their results are given by confidence intervals. The models provide optimal intervention ways to reach the stated objectives. Two optimization methods are used: (1) testing strategies and scenarios and(2) optimizing with a genetic algorithm. The application case presented is a small nonformal education Spanish business. First, the model is validated in the 2008-2012 period, and subsequently, the optimal way to obtain a maximum profit in the 2013-2025 period is obtained using the two methods.

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Simulating Demography and Human Development Dynamics

Cited by 5 publications

References 13 publications

A stochastic dynamical social model involving a human happiness index

A stochastic dynamical social model involving a human happiness index

A Population Pyramid Dynamics Model and Its Analytical Solution. Application Case for Spain

A Methodology for Modeling and Optimizing Social Systems

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