Simulating future land cover change in the Tono catchment using the CA-Markov model

Abstract

Land use change is the most precise method used to understand the past and future land use dynamics of an area. Based on historical land use change, this study simulated the spatial patterns of land use in 2030, 2040, and 2050 using the CA-Markove model in Tersset. Land use classification maps from 1986, 1996, 2006, and 2020 were used in the Markov chain analysis to predict future maps. The simulated land cover map for 2020 was validated by comparing it with the classified map of the same year. The Overall Kappa value was 0.8878, indicating satisfactory performance. Future land use changes were quantitatively and spatially analyzed and the results revealed an increase in farmland from 38.7% in 2030 to 53.1% in 2050 to the detriment of savannah forest and Savanah Woodland, which is projected to decline from 21.7–13.4% and 33.0–22.2% respectively within the same period. The major transitions that occurred over the study period include, transition from farmland to savannah woodlands and savannah forest to savannah woodlands. Savannah forest persisted in the Northern part of the catchment and along the rivers. Conversion from savannah forest to farmland was observed to be prominent around the Tono reservoir, which is cause for concern. Hence, timely management measures need to be taken by policymakers to protect and sustainably manage forest resources in the catchment to safeguard water resources downstream. Study findings provide a scientific basis for decision-making for the catchment’s forest-water resources management.