Simulating future land use by coupling ecological security patterns and multiple scenarios

Spatial pattern evolution and prediction scenario of habitat quality in typical fragile ecological region, China: A case study of the Yellow River floodplain area

“…In this study, we combined PLUS, InVEST and RF models to conduct quantitative analysis on habitat quality in the Yellow River floodplain area. The results of the study provide a basis for regional ecological planning, but the factors that influence changes in habitat quality are diverse and the mechanisms by which these factors influence changes in habitat quality need to be elucidated.①; From 2000 to 2020, with the socio-economic development and the expansion of build-up land in the Yellow River beach area, the change of this land use type far exceeds that of the other six land use types, resulting in a decreasing trend of habitat quality which is consistent with the existing studies in the Yellow River basin [ 31 , 51 , 52 ].②This study found that topographic relief (TR), land use intensity (LUI), NDVI, temperature, precipitation, SHDI and other indicators have an important impact on habitat quality. Among them, the topography and land use intensity have a greater impact on habitat quality, which is consistent with other literatures [ [53] , [57] ].…”

Research on the coupled mechanism of landscape connectivity simulation by integrating multi‐level ecological security patterns and multi‐scenario simulation: A case study of the main urban area of Hangzhou

“…It is worth noting that although the PUD scenario exhibits the most significant loss of ecological land and expansion of built‐up areas according to the preset transition probabilities in the Markov chain, the scale of potential habitat patches and structural connectivity levels remain superior to the BAU scenario (Figures 9a and 10a). The reason behind this lies in the fact that PUD couples BESP as spatial constraints, ensuring that critical ecological land within ESPs is not encroached upon by built‐up areas, while the probability of encroachment increases for forested areas outside the constrained space (Nie et al, 2023). This implies that compared with previous simulation studies that relied on a single, fixed ecological constraint (Hu et al, 2020; Huang et al, 2019; Li et al, 2018), the approach of hierarchical ecological constraints combined with different simulation scenarios provides more flexible and elastic strategy options for the protection of urban landscape connectivity.…”

“…In contrast, ESPs are a comprehensive network system formed by organically connecting key areas for ecological processes through ecological corridors (Peng et al, 2017; Huang et al, 2022), making them a suitable choice as spatial ecological constraints. Moreover, using different levels of ESPs as conversion zones for different simulation scenarios would facilitate the construction of a simulation mechanism adaptable to multiple development goals (Nie et al, 2023; Nie, Xu, et al, 2022). However, the practice of coupling multi‐level ESPs with multi‐scenario simulation is still relatively uncommon in research on dynamic optimization of landscape connectivity.…”

Construction of an Ecological Security Pattern in Rapidly Urbanizing Areas Based on Ecosystem Sustainability, Stability, and Integrity

“…With the integration of multidisciplinary cross-platform learning and emerging technologies, the research direction has evolved from initial quantitative analysis, including ecological pattern and landscape planning, to introducing emerging ecological theories and models, such as spatiotemporal pattern scenario simulation, decision making, and trend analysis. Research methods have also evolved from initially relying on a single landuse indicator to incorporating diverse scenario simulation and decision analysis methods, such as landscape pattern indices, minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model, circuit theory landscape model, and the Future Landuse Simulation [17][18][19]. These advancements have improved the reliability of construction methods and territorial spatial decision making, contributing to the development of ecological security [20].…”