Simulating future precipitation extremes in a complex   Alpine catchment

Dobler, Christian; Bürger, Gerd; Stötter, Johann

doi:10.5194/nhess-13-263-2013

Cited by 16 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 71 publications

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“…The snow storage in the catchment is highly sensitive to temperature variations, which can shift the seasonal patterns of snowmelt and aquifer recharge. A similar recharge pattern that strongly depends on seasonal snow accumulation and melting has been observed in other Alpine karst systems (Finger et al, 2013;Gremaud, 2011). Previous studies suggest decreasing spring discharge with increasing temper-atures, as a result of increased evapotranspiration (e.g., Loáiciga et al, 1999).…”

Section: Hydrological Process Sensitivitiessupporting

confidence: 78%

“…Gremaud et al (2009) and Gremaud and Goldscheider (2010) studied a geologically complex, glacierized karst catchment in the Alps by combining tracer tests and hydrological monitoring and found that the changing hydro-meteorological conditions affect the water storage in snow and ice significantly, which have high impact on the aquifer recharge processes and discharge dynamics. Finger et al (2013) investigated glacier meltwater runoff in a high Alpine karst catchment under present and future climate conditions using tracer experiments, karst structure modeling and glacier melt modeling. The results indicated that parts of the glacier meltwater are drained seasonally by the underlying karst system and the expected climate change may jeopardize the water availability in the karst aquifer.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Dynamics of water fluxes and storages in an Alpine karst catchment under current and potential future climate conditions

Chen

Hartmann

Wagener

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Karst aquifers are difficult to manage due to their unique hydrogeological characteristics. Future climate projections suggest a strong change in temperature and precipitation regimes in European karst regions over the next decades. Alpine karst systems can be especially vulnerable under changing hydro-meteorological conditions since snowmelt in mountainous environments is an important controlling process for aquifer recharge and is highly sensitive to varying climatic conditions. Our paper presents the first study to investigate potential impacts of climate change on mountainous karst systems by using a combined lumped and distributed modeling approach with consideration of subsurface karst drainage structures. The study site is characterized by high-permeability (karstified) limestone formations and low-permeability (non-karst) sedimentary Flysch. The model simulation under current conditions demonstrates that a large proportion of precipitation infiltrates into the karst aquifer as autogenic recharge. Moreover, the result shows that surface snow storage is dominant from November to April, while subsurface water storage in the karst aquifer dominates from May to October. The climate scenario runs demonstrate that varied climate conditions significantly affect the spatiotemporal distribution of water fluxes and storages: (1) the total catchment discharge decreases under all evaluated future climate conditions. (2) The spatiotemporal discharge pattern is strongly controlled by temperature variations, which can shift the seasonal snowmelt pattern, with snow storage in the cold season (December to April) decreasing significantly under all change scenarios. (3) Increased karst aquifer recharge in winter and spring, and decreased recharge in summer and autumn, partly offset each other. (4) Impacts on the karst springs are distinct; the lowest permanent spring presents a “robust” discharge behavior, while the highest overflow outlet is highly sensitive to changing climate. This analysis effectively demonstrates that the impacts on subsurface flow dynamics are regulated by the characteristic dual flow and spatially heterogeneous distributed drainage structure of the karst aquifer. Overall, our study highlights the fast groundwater dynamics in mountainous karst catchments, which make them highly vulnerable to future changing climate conditions. Additionally, this work presents a novel holistic modeling approach, which can be transferred to similar karst systems for studying the impact of climate change on local karst water resources with consideration of their individual hydrogeological complexity and hydraulic heterogeneity.

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Section: Hydrological Process Sensitivitiessupporting

confidence: 78%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics of water fluxes and storages in an Alpine karst catchment under current and potential future climate conditions

Chen

Hartmann

Wagener

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…XDS has been applied for various purposes, e.g. for early flood warning (Bürger et al, 2009), downscaling extreme precipitation projections (Dobler et al, 2013), and hydrological impact studies (Dobler et al, 2012a).…”

Section: Expanded Downscaling (Xds)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on the seasonality and generation processes of floods – projections and uncertainties for catchments with mixed snowmelt/rainfall regimes

Vormoor

Lawrence

Heistermann

et al. 2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

141

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Abstract. Climate change is likely to impact the seasonality and generation processes of floods in the Nordic countries, which has direct implications for flood risk assessment, design flood estimation, and hydropower production management. Using a multi-model/multi-parameter approach to simulate daily discharge for a reference ) and a future (2071-2099) period, we analysed the projected changes in flood seasonality and generation processes in six catchments with mixed snowmelt/rainfall regimes under the current climate in Norway. The multi-model/multi-parameter ensemble consists of (i) eight combinations of global and regional climate models, (ii) two methods for adjusting the climate model output to the catchment scale, and (iii) one conceptual hydrological model with 25 calibrated parameter sets. Results indicate that autumn/winter events become more frequent in all catchments considered, which leads to an intensification of the current autumn/winter flood regime for the coastal catchments, a reduction of the dominance of spring/summer flood regimes in a high-mountain catchment, and a possible systematic shift in the current flood regimes from spring/summer to autumn/winter in the two catchments located in northern and south-eastern Norway. The changes in flood regimes result from increasing event magnitudes or frequencies, or a combination of both during autumn and winter. Changes towards more dominant autumn/winter events correspond to an increasing relevance of rainfall as a flood generating process (FGP) which is most pronounced in those catchments with the largest shifts in flood seasonality. Here, rainfall replaces snowmelt as the dominant FGP primarily due to increasing temperature. We further analysed the ensemble components in contributing to overall uncertainty in the projected changes and found that the climate projections and the methods for downscaling or bias correction tend to be the largest contributors. The relative role of hydrological parameter uncertainty, however, is highest for those catchments showing the largest changes in flood seasonality, which confirms the lack of robustness in hydrological model parameterization for simulations under transient hydrometeorological conditions.

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“…Climate projections indicate that a shift in snow and precipitation patterns is likely to alter catchment runoff regimes (Gobiet et al, 2014). Additionally, extreme events, such as floods and droughts, are expected to increase in frequency and intensity (Dobler et al, 2013;Rössler et al, 2012). For sustainable management of water resources in Alpine areas, it is imperative to understand the complex mountain hydrological processes (Kraller et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics of water fluxes and storages in an Alpine karst catchment under current and potential future climate conditions

Chen¹,

Hartmann²,

Wagener³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract. Climate change projections indicate significant changes to precipitation and temperature regimes in European karst regions. Alpine karst systems can be especially vulnerable under changing hydro-meteorological conditions since snowmelt in mountainous environments is an important controlling process for aquifer recharge, and is highly sensitive to 10 varying climatic conditions. The current study presents an investigation of present and future water fluxes and storages at an Alpine karst catchment using a distributed numerical model. A delta approach combined with random sampling was used to assess the potential impacts of climate changes. The study site is characterized by high permeability (karstified) limestone formations and low permeability (non-karst) sedimentary flysch. The model simulation under current conditions demonstrates that a large proportion of precipitation infiltrates into the karst aquifer as autogenic recharge. Surface runoff in 15 the adjacent non-karst areas partly infiltrates into the karst aquifer as allogenic point recharge. Moreover, the result shows that surface snow storage is dominant from November to April, while subsurface water storage in the karst aquifer dominates from May to October. The climate scenario runs demonstrate that varied climate conditions significantly affect the spatiotemporal distribution of water fluxes and storages: (1) the total catchment discharge decreases under all evaluated future climate conditions. (2) The spatiotemporal discharge pattern is strongly controlled by temperature variations, which 20 can shift the seasonal snowmelt pattern, with snow storage in the cold season (December to April) decreasing significantly under all change scenarios. (3) Increased karst aquifer recharge in winter and spring, and decreased recharge in summer and autumn, partly offset each other. (4) Impacts on the karst springs are distinct; the permanent spring presents a "robust" discharge behavior, while the estavelle is highly sensitive to changing climate. This analysis effectively demonstrates that the impacts on subsurface flow dynamics are regulated by the characteristic dual flow and spatially heterogeneous distributed 25 drainage structure of the karst aquifer. Overall, our study suggests that bespoke hydrological models tailored to the specific subsurface characteristics of an Alpine karst catchment are needed to understand climate change impact.

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Simulating future precipitation extremes in a complex Alpine catchment

Cited by 16 publications

References 71 publications

Dynamics of water fluxes and storages in an Alpine karst catchment under current and potential future climate conditions

Dynamics of water fluxes and storages in an Alpine karst catchment under current and potential future climate conditions

Climate change impacts on the seasonality and generation processes of floods – projections and uncertainties for catchments with mixed snowmelt/rainfall regimes

Dynamics of water fluxes and storages in an Alpine karst catchment under current and potential future climate conditions

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