Simulating monthly streamflow for the Upper Changjiang, China, under climatic change scenarios / Simulation du débit mensuel du Haut Changjiang, en Chine, sous des scénarios de changement climatique

Woo, Ming‐ko; Long, Tianyu; Thorne, Robin

doi:10.1623/hysj.54.3.596

Cited by 11 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…This study's results should be considered in the context of others studies that used GCM to drive hydrologic models or land surface schemes to project streamflow in the Yangtze River basin [24][25][26][27][28][29][30]. Our results are consistent with Su et al [27], who coupled five bias-corrected CMIP5 GCMs to drive one conceptual hydrologic model and three process-based hydrologic models to produce future streamflow in the upper Yangtze River basin under four RCP scenarios.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

“…In the summer of 1998, flooding of the Yangtze River caused about 3700 deaths, inundated 21.2 million ha of land and caused in excess of US$30 billion in total direct economic losses [23]. Therefore, planning for climate change's impacts on water resources and flooding in the Yangtze River basin is essential.The potential impact of climate change on streamflow in the Yangtze River basin has been evaluated in several previous studies at the whole basin or sub-basin scale [24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32]. These studies differ in the selection of global climate models (GCMs), emission scenarios, downscaling method, bias correction method, and hydrological model.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected Changes in Hydrological Extremes in the Yangtze River Basin with an Ensemble of Regional Climate Simulations

Yang

et al. 2018

Water

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This paper estimates the likely impacts of future climate change on streamflow, especially the hydrological extremes over the Yangtze River basin. The future climate was projected by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment in East Asia (CORDEX-EA) initiative for the periods 2020–2049 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. The bias corrected outputs from five regional climate models (RCMs) were used in conjunction with the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrological model to produce hydrological projections. For the future climate of the Yangtze River basin, outputs from an ensemble of RCMs indicate that the annual mean temperature will increase for 2020–2049 by 1.81 °C for RCP4.5 and by 2.26 °C for RCP8.5. The annual mean precipitation is projected to increase by 3.62% under RCP4.5 and 7.65% under RCP8.5. Overall, increases in precipitation are amplified in streamflow, and the change in streamflow also shows significant temporal and spatial variations and large divergence between regional climate models. At the same time, the maximum streamflow in different durations are also projected to increase at three mainstream gauging stations based on flood frequency analysis. In particular, larger increases in maximum 1-day streamflow (+14.24% on average) compared to 5-day and 15-day water volumes (+12.79% and +10.24%) indicate that this projected extreme streamflow increase would be primarily due to intense short-period rainfall events. It is necessary to consider the impacts of climate change in future water resource management.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

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confidence: 99%

Projected Changes in Hydrological Extremes in the Yangtze River Basin with an Ensemble of Regional Climate Simulations

Yang

et al. 2018

Water

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“…These reductions will ultimately have severe impacts on dry season streamflows. Woo, et al [13] and Xu, et al [14] found that summer flows will increase due to more extreme precipitation events, more frequent warm nights, and long heatwaves in the HWYZ. Most of the studies conducted in this region were related to temperature and precipitation trends [15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22] and very few investigated linkages with stream flows [4,23,24].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic Variability and Periodicity for Upstream Sub-Basins of the Yangtze River, China

Ahmed

Wang

Booij

et al. 2020

Water

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The headwaters of the Yangtze River are located on the Qinghai Tibetan Plateau, which is affected by climate change. Here, treamflow trends for Tuotuohe and Zhimenda sub-basins and relations to temperature and precipitation trends during 1961–2015 were investigated. The modified Mann–Kendall trend test, Pettitt test, wavelet analysis, and multivariate correlation analysis was deployed for this purpose. The temperature and precipitation significantly increased for each sub-basin, and the temperature increase was more significant in Tuotuohe sub-basin as compared to the Zhimenda sub-basin. A statistically significant periodicity of 2–4 years was observed for both sub-basins in different time spans. Higher flow periodicities for Tuotuohe and Zhimenda sub-basin were found after 1991 and 2004, respectively, which indicates that these are the change years of trends in streamflows. The influence of temperature on streamflow is more substantial in Tuotuohe sub-basin, which will ultimately impact the melting of glaciers and snowmelt runoff in this sub-basin. Precipitation plays a more critical role in the Zhimenda streamflow. Precipitation and temperature changes in the headwaters of the Yangtze River will change the streamflow variability, which will ultimately impact the hydropower supply and water resources of the Yangtze Basin. This study contributes to the understanding of the dynamics of the hydrological cycle and may lead to better hydrologic system modeling for downstream water resource developments.

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“…Generally, the higher-elevation region has shallower soils and a sandy loam texture as opposed to a loam or clay loam texture in the lower elevation regions. Using the Hypres v2.0 database (http://esdac.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ESDB_Archive/ ESDBv2/fr_intro.htm; Wösten et al, 1999), the top soil and subsoil textures were used to assign the Shetran soil parameters (porosity, residual moisture content, van Genuchten pa-rameters and saturated hydraulic conductivity). There is little information available on the subsurface geology.…”

Section: Shetranmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impacts on Yangtze River Discharge at the Three Gorges Dam

Birkinshaw¹,

Guerreiro²,

Nicholson³

et al. 2016

Preprint

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Abstract. The Yangtze River Basin is home to more than 400 million people, contributes to nearly half of China’s food production, and is susceptible to major floods. Therefore planning for climate change impacts on river discharges is essential. We used a physically-based distributed hydrological model, Shetran, to simulate discharge in the Yangtze River just below the Three Gorges Dam at Yichang (1,007,200 km2), obtaining an excellent match between simulated and measured daily discharge, with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.95 for the calibration period (1996–2000) and 0.92 for the validation period (2001–2005). We then used a simple monthly delta change approach for 78 climate model projections (35 different GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5 (CMIP5) to examine the effect of climate change on river discharge for 2041–2070 for Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Projected changes to the basin’s annual precipitation varied between −3.6 % and +14.8 % but increases in temperature and consequently evapotranspiration (calculated using the Thornthwaite equation) were projected by all CMIP5 models, resulting in projected changes in the basin’s annual discharge from −29.8 % to +16.0 %. These large differences were mainly due to the predicted expansion of the summer monsoon north and west into the Yangtze basin in some CMIP5 models, e.g. CanESM2, but not in others, e.g. CSIRO-Mk3-6-0. This was despite both models being able to simulate current climate well. Until projections of the strength and location of the monsoon under a future climate improve there will remain large uncertainties in the direction and magnitude of future change in discharge for the Yangtze.

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Simulating monthly streamflow for the Upper Changjiang, China, under climatic change scenarios / Simulation du débit mensuel du Haut Changjiang, en Chine, sous des scénarios de changement climatique

Cited by 11 publications

References 7 publications

Projected Changes in Hydrological Extremes in the Yangtze River Basin with an Ensemble of Regional Climate Simulations

Projected Changes in Hydrological Extremes in the Yangtze River Basin with an Ensemble of Regional Climate Simulations

Climatic Variability and Periodicity for Upstream Sub-Basins of the Yangtze River, China

Climate Change Impacts on Yangtze River Discharge at the Three Gorges Dam

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