Simulating plasticity as a framework for understanding habitat selection and its role in adaptive capacity and extinction risk through an expansion of CDMetaPOP

Abstract

Adaptive capacity can present challenges for modelling as it encompasses multiple ecological and evolutionary processes such as natural selection, genetic drift, gene flow and phenotypic plasticity. Spatially explicit, individual‐based models provide an outlet for simulating these complex interacting eco‐evolutionary processes. We expanded the existing Cost‐Distance Meta‐POPulation (CDMetaPOP) framework with inducible plasticity modelled as a habitat selection behaviour, using temperature or habitat quality variables, with a genetically based selection threshold conditioned on past individual experience. To demonstrate expected results in the new module, we simulated hypothetical populations and then evaluated model performance in populations of redband trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss gairdneri) across three watersheds where temperatures induce physiological stress in parts of the stream network. We ran simulations using projected warming stream temperature data under four scenarios for alleles that: (1) confer thermal tolerance, (2) bestow plastic habitat selection, (3) give both thermal tolerance and habitat selection preference and (4) do not provide either thermal tolerance or habitat selection. Inclusion of an adaptive allele decreased declines in population sizes, but this impact was greatly reduced in the relatively cool stream networks. As anticipated with the new module, high‐temperature patches remained unoccupied by individuals with the allele operating plastically after exposure to warm temperatures. Using complete habitat avoidance above the stressful temperature threshold, habitat selection reduced the overall population size due to the opportunity cost of avoiding areas with increased, but not guaranteed, mortality. Inclusion of plasticity within CDMetaPOP will provide the potential for genetic or plastic traits and ‘rescue’ to affect eco‐evolutionary dynamics for research questions and conservation applications.

Editorial 2024

“…Additionally, there were several notable articles published in the last year that were outstanding studies as selected by Editor-in-Chief, Shawn Narum. Useful guidance was provided for data analyses such estimating admixture from genomic data without a reference assembly (Garcia-Erill et al, 2023), and simulating phenotypic plasticity in context of adaptive capacity and extinction risk (Seaborn et al, 2023). The utility of reference genomes for yielding biological insights were evident in studies such as (de la Herrán et al, 2023), as well as the importance of closely related genome assemblies and pangenomes to account for intraspecific genomic variation (Puente-Sánchez et al, 2023;Thorburn et al, 2023).…”