Simulating resilience of rainfed wheat–based cropping systems of Iran under future climate change

Koocheki, A.; Mahallati, Mehdi Nassiri; Aval, Mohammad Bannayan; Yaghoubi, Fatemeh

doi:10.1007/s11027-022-09996-3

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 73 publications

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“…Although several studies acknowledging climate change effects on wheat productivity in Iran (Deihimfard et al, 2018;Koocheki et al, 2022;Moghaddam et al, 2023), none have introduced the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in climatic scenarios alongside genetic, and agronomic practices.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A scrutiny of plasticity management in irrigated wheat systems under CMIP6 earth system models (case study: Golestan Province, Iran)

Hosseinpour,

Bagherikia,

Soughi

et al. 2024

Theor Appl Climatol

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Global wheat production has faced, and will persist in encountering many challenges. Therefore, developing a dynamic cultivation approach generated through modeling is crucial to coping with the challenges in speci c districts. The modeling can contribute to achieving global objectives of farmers' nancial independence and food security by enhancing the cropping systems. The current study aims to assess the effects of cultivars and sowing windows intricately on irrigated wheat production using the two models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), including ACCES-CM2 and HadGEM31-LL under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245, and SSP585). A two-year on-farm experiment was conducted for parametrization and validation of the APSIM-Wheat model at two locations. The model reasonably simulated the days to anthesis, maturity, biomass production, and yield within all cultivars. The normalized root-meansquare error (RMSE) of the phenological stages was simulated and measured values were 5% and 2-4%, while the index of agreement (IOA) was in the range of 0.84-0.88 and 0.95-0.97. An acceptable agreement of the simulated biomass (RMSE = 5-7% and 0.91 − 0.78) and yield (RMSE = 6-11% and IOA = 0.70-0.94) was identi ed in the model. Afterward, the LARS-WG model generated the baseline (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014) based on the weather data at the sites and projected the models for the near (2030-2049) and remote future (2050-2070). The models revealed that not only the average maximum and minimum temperatures will rise by 1.85°C and 1.62°C which will exacerbate the reference evapotranspiration (ET 0 ), but also the precipitation and solar radiation will reach + 58%, and + 0.25 Mj m − 2 . Our results clearly showed that precipitation volume over the growing seasons would elevate approximately two times as much as the baseline in the future, while there is a signi cant decrease in water productivity (WP) and yield from the intensive ET 0 . Based on the wheat simulation, the short-duration cultivar (Kalate) combined with the postponed planting (16-Dec) was determined as a practical alternative; nonetheless, both WP and yield signi cantly decreased by 40% and 7%, respectively (p < 0.05). In conclusion, identifying and analyzing future farming conditions (e.g., agro-climate, soil and crop management data) would provide a perception of the forthcoming scenarios. When applied, this knowledge can potentially mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change on global wheat production.* represents the statistical signi cance (p < 0.05) of the data's average compared to the baseline (1: ACCESS-CM2 and 2: HadGEM3).

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A scrutiny of plasticity management in irrigated wheat systems under CMIP6 earth system models (case study: Golestan Province, Iran)

Hosseinpour,

Bagherikia,

Soughi

et al. 2024

Theor Appl Climatol

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Impacts of climate change on water footprint components of rainfed and irrigated wheat in a semi-arid environment

Fathian

Bazrafshan

Jamshidi

et al. 2023

Environ Monit Assess

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A Scrutiny of plasticity management in irrigated wheat systems under CMIP6 Earth system models (case study: Golestan province, Iran)

Hosseinpour,

Bagherikia,

Soughi

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Global wheat production has faced, and will persist in encountering many challenges. Therefore, developing a dynamic cultivation approach generated through modeling is crucial to coping with the challenges in specific districts. The modeling can contribute to achieving global objectives of farmers’ financial independence and food security by enhancing the cropping systems. The current study aims to assess the effects of cultivars and sowing windows intricately on irrigated wheat production using the two models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), including ACCES-CM2 and HadGEM31-LL under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245, and SSP585). A two-year on-farm experiment was conducted for parametrization and validation of the APSIM-Wheat model at two locations. The model reasonably simulated the days to anthesis, maturity, biomass production, and yield within all cultivars. The normalized root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the phenological stages was simulated and measured values were 5% and 2–4%, while the index of agreement (IOA) was in the range of 0.84–0.88 and 0.95–0.97. An acceptable agreement of the simulated biomass (RMSE = 5–7% and 0.91 − 0.78) and yield (RMSE = 6–11% and IOA = 0.70–0.94) was identified in the model. Afterward, the LARS-WG model generated the baseline (2000–2014) based on the weather data at the sites and projected the models for the near (2030–2049) and remote future (2050–2070). The models revealed that not only the average maximum and minimum temperatures will rise by 1.85°C and 1.62°C which will exacerbate the reference evapotranspiration (ET0), but also the precipitation and solar radiation will reach + 58%, and + 0.25 Mj m− 2. Our results clearly showed that precipitation volume over the growing seasons would elevate approximately two times as much as the baseline in the future, while there is a significant decrease in water productivity (WP) and yield from the intensive ET0. Based on the wheat simulation, the short-duration cultivar (Kalate) combined with the postponed planting (16-Dec) was determined as a practical alternative; nonetheless, both WP and yield significantly decreased by 40% and 7%, respectively (p < 0.05). In conclusion, identifying and analyzing future farming conditions (e.g., agro-climate, soil and crop management data) would provide a perception of the forthcoming scenarios. When applied, this knowledge can potentially mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change on global wheat production.

show abstract

Simulating resilience of rainfed wheat–based cropping systems of Iran under future climate change

Cited by 3 publications

References 73 publications

A scrutiny of plasticity management in irrigated wheat systems under CMIP6 earth system models (case study: Golestan Province, Iran)

A scrutiny of plasticity management in irrigated wheat systems under CMIP6 earth system models (case study: Golestan Province, Iran)

Impacts of climate change on water footprint components of rainfed and irrigated wheat in a semi-arid environment

A Scrutiny of plasticity management in irrigated wheat systems under CMIP6 Earth system models (case study: Golestan province, Iran)

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