Simulating Security of Supply Effects of the Nabucco and South Stream Projects for the European Natural Gas Market

Dieckhöner, Caroline

doi:10.5547/01956574.33.3.6

Cited by 29 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…For natural gas, the SoS literature mainly deals with geopolitical issues such as gas disputes, etc. [11][12][13][14][15]. By contrast, this paper sheds light on the local security of gas supply in the German gas grid.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 86%

Does Increasing Natural Gas Demand in the Power Sector Pose a Threat of Congestion to the German Gas Grid? A Model-Coupling Approach

2019

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This study aims to investigate the possible congestion in the German natural gas system, which may arise due to an increase in the gas consumption in the power sector in extreme weather events. For this purpose, we develop a two-stage approach to couple an electricity model and a natural gas network model. In this approach, we model the electricity system in the first stage to determine the gas demand in the power sector. We then use the calculated gas demand to model gas networks in the second stage, where we deploy a newly developed gas network model. As a case study, we primarily evaluate our methodological approach by re-simulating the cold weather event in 2012, which is seen as an extreme situation for the gas grids, challenging the security of supply. Accordingly, we use our coupled model to investigate potential congestion in the natural gas networks for the year 2030, using a scenario of a sustainable energy transition, where an increase in the gas consumption in the power industry is likely. Results for 2030 show a 51% increase in yearly gas demand in the power industry compared to 2012. Further, the simulation results show a gas supply interruption in two nodes in 2012. In 2030, the same nodes may face an (partial) interruption of gas supply in cold winter days such as the 6th of February 2012. In this day, the load shedding in the natural gas networks can increase up to 19 GWh th in 2030. We also argue that the interrupted electricity production, due to local gas interruptions, can easily be compensated by other power plants. However, these local gas interruptions may endanger the local heat production.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 86%

Does Increasing Natural Gas Demand in the Power Sector Pose a Threat of Congestion to the German Gas Grid? A Model-Coupling Approach

2019

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“…Three of the few examples are Lise and Hobbs (), Lise et al. () and Dieckhöner (), who measure the impacts of new pipeline corridors to Europe and of new LNG ports on security of supply. Papers on simulation‐based analyses of the effects of (geo‐) political conflicts on the natural gas market are also rare and concentrate on Europe only.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…946 Christian Growitsch, Harald Hecking, and Timo Panke Quantitative research on security of supply is rather scarce and solely concentrates on Europe. Three of the few examples are , and Dieckhöner (2012), who measure the impacts of new pipeline corridors to Europe and of new LNG ports on security of supply. Papers on simulation-based analyses of the effects of (geo-) political conflicts on the natural gas market are also rare and concentrate on Europe only.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Supply Disruptions and Regional Price Effects in a Spatial Oligopoly—An Application to the Global Gas Market

Growitsch

Hecking

Panke

2014

Rev International Economics

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Supply shocks in the global gas market might affect countries differently since the market is regionally interlinked but not perfectly integrated. Additionally, high supply side concentration might expose countries to market power in different ways. To evaluate the strategic position of importing countries concerning gas supplies we disentangle import prices to price increasing and decreasing factors. Since the interrelations on the global gas market are complex we use an equilibrium model programmed as a mixed complementarity problem (MCP) and simulate the blockage of LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This enables us to account for the oligopolistic nature and the asymmetry of the gas supply side. We find that Japan faces the most severe price increases as it completely relies on LNG supply. In contrast, European countries like the UK benefit from a good interconnection to the continental pipeline system and significant domestic price-taking production, both of which help to mitigate an increase in physical costs of supply as well as the exercise of market power. Terms of use: Documents in

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“…Russian gas supplies approximately 25% of Europe's gas demand (Dieckhoner 2012). Previously, 80% of these gas volumes reached Europe through transit pipelines in Ukraine (Dieckhoener, 2012).…”

Section: Challenges Of the European Natural Gas Networkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vulnerability assessment of the European natural gas supply

Olanrewaju

Chaudry

Qadrdan

et al. 2015

Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Energy

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As indigenous natural gas reserves within the European Union (EU) decline, higher gas imports are expected in order to meet future EU gas demand. Natural gas will be transported across considerable distances from regions of gas reserves to European consumers. This raises security of gas supply concerns especially for EU countries that depend heavily on a single supply source or major transit route. A linear programming model of the European gas supplies was developed and used to investigate the impact of loss of the Ukraine transit capacity on gas supply from Russia to Europe. Two demand scenarios -that is a reference case and a high demand case in the winter of 2014/2015 were investigated. The results have shown that gas flows on interconnectors and from storage and liquefied natural gas import terminals compensated for the supply shortfall. Furthermore, to mitigate the effect of the supply shortage, the impact of increasing the capacities of selected pipelines within the EU was compared against increasing the maximum storage withdrawal rates in southeast Europe. Higher storage withdrawal rates achieved lower demand curtailment than the additional interconnector capacity in both scenarios. NotationDZ i,t unserved gas demand at node i at time t (million cubic metres (mcm)/d) DZC i cost of unserved demand at node i (E/mcm) IC s,t storage injection cost at facility s at time t (E/mcm) i,j node indices L l,t LNG volumes at a regasification terminal l at time t (mcm/d) LC l,t cost of LNG delivery at terminal l at time t (E/mcm) l liquified natural gas regasification terminal index M t node-flow incidence matrix PR i,t production/supply volume at node i at time t (mcm/d) PRC i,t cost of gas production/border supply cost at node i at time t (E/mcm) Q eq equivalent flow capacity in the single equivalent pipeline Q i original individual pipeline capacity S in s;t gas volumes injected into a storage facility s at time t (mcm/d) S out s;t gas volume withdrawn from a storage facility s at time t (mcm/d) s storage index T temperature (K) TC i,j,t cost of gas transport between node i and node j at time t (E/mcm) TQ i,j,t gas volumes transported between node i and node j at time t (mcm/d) t time period in days WC s,t storage withdrawal cost at facility s at time t (E/mcm)

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Simulating Security of Supply Effects of the Nabucco and South Stream Projects for the European Natural Gas Market

Cited by 29 publications

References 38 publications

Does Increasing Natural Gas Demand in the Power Sector Pose a Threat of Congestion to the German Gas Grid? A Model-Coupling Approach

Does Increasing Natural Gas Demand in the Power Sector Pose a Threat of Congestion to the German Gas Grid? A Model-Coupling Approach

Supply Disruptions and Regional Price Effects in a Spatial Oligopoly—An Application to the Global Gas Market

Vulnerability assessment of the European natural gas supply

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