Simulating the effect of school closure during COVID-19 outbreaks in Ontario, Canada

Abdollahi, Elaheh; Haworth‐Brockman, Margaret; Keynan, Yoav; Langley, Joanne M.; Moghadas, Seyed M.

doi:10.1186/s12916-020-01705-8

Cited by 63 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…This is due in part to our assumption that asymptomatic and 11 symptomatic infections contribute similarly to transmission [26,67,37,36,68], and in part to our model's ability to capture chains of transmission within schools and extending out into the community. Our study echoes several modeling studies in emphasizing the importance of reducing school capacity to impede transmission [61,62,63,64,72]. Taking all this evidence together, those deciding on strategies to safely reopen schools should strongly consider operating at reduced capacity and strictly enforcing face-mask adherence.…”

supporting

confidence: 71%

“…There is now a growing body of evidence that school closures contributed to mitigating the first wave of the epidemic and could lead to rising case numbers if relaxed [6,62]. Our study adds to this evidence, and suggests an even greater impact of school reopening than several other studies [64,62,61,72,60]. This is due in part to our assumption that asymptomatic and 11 symptomatic infections contribute similarly to transmission [26,67,37,36,68], and in part to our model's ability to capture chains of transmission within schools and extending out into the community.…”

mentioning

confidence: 52%

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Impacts of K-12 school reopening on the COVID-19 epidemic in Indiana, USA

España

Cavany

Oidtman

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Importance: In the United States, schools closed in March 2020 to reduce the burden of COVID-19. They are now reopening amid high incidence in many places, necessitating analyses of the associated risks and benefits. Objective: To determine the impact of school reopening with varying levels of operating capacity and face-mask adherence on COVID-19 burden. Design: Modeling study using an agent-based model that simulates daily activities of the population. Transmission can occur in places such as schools, workplaces, community, and households. Model parameters were calibrated to and validated against multiple types of COVID-19 data. Setting: Indiana, United States of America. Participants: Synthetic population of Indiana. K-12 students, teachers, their families, and others in the state were studied separately. Interventions: Reopening of schools under three levels of school operating capacity (50%, 75%, and 100%), as well as three assumptions about face-mask adherence in schools (50%, 75%, and 100%). We compared the impact of these scenarios to reopening at full capacity without face masks and a scenario with schools operating remotely, for a total of 11 scenarios. Main outcomes: SARS-CoV-2 infections, symptomatic cases, and deaths due to COVID-19 from August 24 to December 31. Results: We projected 19,527 (95% CrI: 4,641-56,502) infections and 360 (95% CrI: 67-967) deaths in the scenario where schools operated remotely from August 24 to December 31. Reopening at full capacity with low face-mask adherence in schools resulted in a proportional increase of 81.7 (95% CrI: 78.2-85.3) times the number of infections and 13.4 (95% CrI: 12.8-14.0) times the number of deaths. High face-mask adherence resulted in a proportional increase of 3.0 (95% CrI: 2.8-3.1) times the number of infections. Operating at reduced capacity with high face-mask adherence resulted in only an 11.6% (95% CrI: 5.50%-17.9%) increase in the number of infections. Conclusions and Relevance: Reduced capacity and high face-mask adherence in schools would substantially reduce the burden of COVID-19 in schools and across the state. We did not explore the impact of other reopening scenarios, such as alternating days of attendance. Heterogeneous decisions could be made across different districts throughout the state, which our model does not capture. Hence, caution should be taken in interpreting our results as specific quantitative targets for operating capacity or face-mask adherence. Rather, our results suggest that schools should give serious consideration to reducing capacity as much as is feasible and enforcing adherence to wearing face masks.

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supporting

confidence: 71%

mentioning

confidence: 52%

Impacts of K-12 school reopening on the COVID-19 epidemic in Indiana, USA

España

Cavany

Oidtman

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…Some have shown that closing schools in U.S. states led to lower case number and infection rates [38]. Others have shown that, in Canada and Australia, school closures may have limited impact on reducing disease spread [39,40]. A review paper systematically examines research on the effectiveness of school closures at containing coronavirus outbreaks and concludes that school closures do not contribute to the control of the pandemic, especially in comparison to policies that broadly restrict the movement of adults [41].…”

Section: Policy Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Which COVID policies are most effective? A Bayesian analysis of COVID-19 by jurisdiction

2020

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This paper reports the results of a Bayesian analysis on large-scale empirical data to assess the effectiveness of eleven types of COVID-control policies that have been implemented at various levels of intensity in 40 countries and U.S. states since the onset of the pandemic. The analysis estimates the marginal impact of each type and level of policy as implemented in concert with other policies. The purpose is to provide policymakers and the general public with an estimate of the relative effectiveness of various COVID-control strategies. We find that a set of widely implemented core policies reduces the spread of virus but not by enough to contain the pandemic except in a few highly compliant jurisdictions. The core policies include the cancellation of public events, restriction of gatherings to fewer than 100 people, recommendation to stay at home, recommended restrictions on internal movement, implementation of a partial international travel ban, and coordination of information campaigns. For the median jurisdiction, these policies reduce growth rate in new infections from an estimated 270% per week to approximately 49% per week, but this impact is insufficient to prevent eventual transmission throughout the population because containment occurs only when a jurisdiction reduces growth in COVID infection to below zero. Most jurisdictions must also implement additional policies, each of which has the potential to reduce weekly COVID growth rate by 10 percentage points or more. The slate of these additional high-impact policies includes targeted or full workplace closings for all but essential workers, stay-at-home requirements, and targeted school closures.

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“…As mentioned earlier, there were two types of outcomes in our results. As can be seen in was a substantial disparity between those who died (9 days, IQR [4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23]) and those who survived (6 days, IQR [4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]) in the median LOS. Figure 2.…”

Section: Patient Outcomesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial epidemiology of COVID-19 infection through the first outbreak (March-May 2020) in the city of Mashhad, Iran

Mansouritorghabeh¹,

Bagherimoghaddam²,

MohammadEbrahimi³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Background: Since December 2019, SARS-CoV-2 infection has converted to a severe threat to global health. It is now considered as the fifth worldwide pandemic problem. This study aims to explore spatial-time distribution of COVID-19 in the first outbreak of COVID-19 in the second major city of Iran (Mashhad). The results will pave the way for better tracking of COVID-19.Methods: Data were collected from two tertiary hospitals in Mashhad in June 2020. They included demographic findings and residential address of the patients with confirmed COVID-19 disease by polymerase chain reaction test. The univariate logistic regression model was used to assess the influence of age and sex on mortality. For spatial-time analysis, after calculating empirical Bayesian rate for every neighborhood, the local Moran's I statistic was used to quantify spatial autocorrelation of COVID-19 frequency at the city neighborhood level.Results: Of 1,535 confirmed cases of COVID-19 included in this study, 951 (62%) were male. Odds of death for patients over 60 years of age was more than three times higher (odds ratio [OR]: 3.7, CI [2.8-4.8]) than for those under the 60 years. In addition, the ratio of relative mortality for male patients was significantly higher than the female (OR: 1.58, CI [1.2-2]). The univariate regression model also revealed that odds of death increased along with increase in duration of hospitalization secondary to COVID-19 disease (OR: 1.02, IQR [1.01-1.02]). The downtown area had a significant high-high cluster throughout much of the study period (March-May 2020). Conclusions: Collection of geographic information system (GIS) map data on SARS-CoV-2 provides insight into clusters of infection and high risk places for COVID-19 transmission. GIS-

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Simulating the effect of school closure during COVID-19 outbreaks in Ontario, Canada

Cited by 63 publications

References 45 publications

Impacts of K-12 school reopening on the COVID-19 epidemic in Indiana, USA

Impacts of K-12 school reopening on the COVID-19 epidemic in Indiana, USA

Which COVID policies are most effective? A Bayesian analysis of COVID-19 by jurisdiction

Spatial epidemiology of COVID-19 infection through the first outbreak (March-May 2020) in the city of Mashhad, Iran

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