Simulating the epidemiological and economic effects of an African swine fever epidemic in industrialized swine populations

Halasa, Tariq Hisham Beshara; Bøtner, Anette; Mortensen, Sten; Christensen, Hanne; Toft, Nils; Boklund, Anette

doi:10.1016/j.vetmic.2016.08.004

Cited by 76 publications

(134 citation statements)

References 23 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

126

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…This may have influenced the results of the spread model, leading to an underestimation of the magnitude of ASF outbreaks. However, this did not seem to have had a large impact on our results, which were similar to other ASF spread simulation models (Halasa et al, 2016). Specifically, both studies predicted small outbreaks (from an average of 2-6 affected farms in Denmark to 4 farms in Sardinia), which lasted for a short period of time, and the majority of positive cases were detected on clinical signs rather than by surveillance activities.…”

Section: Risk Maps Of Asf Occurrencesupporting

confidence: 86%

Understanding African Swine Fever infection dynamics in Sardinia using a spatially explicit transmission model in domestic pig farms

Mur

Sánchez-Vizcaı́no

Fernández-Carrión

et al. 2017

Transbound Emerg Dis

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

SummaryAfrican swine fever virus (ASFV) has been endemic in Sardinia since 1978, resulting in severe losses for local pig producers and creating important problems for the island's veterinary authorities. This study used a spatially explicit stochastic transmission model followed by two regression models to investigate the dynamics of ASFV spread amongst domestic pig farms, to identify geographic areas at highest risk and determine the role of different susceptible pig populations (registered domestic pigs, non-registered domestic pigs [brado] and wild boar) in ASF occurrence. We simulated transmission within and between farms using an adapted version of the previously described model known as Be-FAST. Results from the model revealed a generally low diffusion of ASF in Sardinia, with only 24% of the simulations resulting in disease spread, and for each simulated outbreak on average only four farms and 66 pigs were affected. Overall, local spread (indirect transmission between farms within a 2 km radius through fomites) was the most common route of transmission, being responsible for 98.6% of secondary cases. The risk of ASF occurrence for each domestic pig farm was estimated from the spread model results and integrated in two regression models together with available data for brado and wild boar populations. There was a significant association between the density of all three populations (domestic pigs, brado, and wild boar) and ASF occurrence in Sardinia. The most significant risk factors were the high densities of brado (OR = 2.2) and wild boar (OR = 2.1). The results of both analyses demonstrated that ASF epidemiology and infection dynamics in Sardinia create a complex and multifactorial disease situation, where all susceptible populations play an important role. To stop ASF transmission in Sardinia, three main factors (improving biosecurity on domestic pig farms, eliminating brado practices and better management of wild boars) need to be addressed.

show abstract

Section: Risk Maps Of Asf Occurrencesupporting

confidence: 86%

Understanding African Swine Fever infection dynamics in Sardinia using a spatially explicit transmission model in domestic pig farms

Mur

Sánchez-Vizcaı́no

Fernández-Carrión

et al. 2017

Transbound Emerg Dis

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Returning trucks should be cleaned and disinfected at the farm where pigs are unloaded (45). In addition to this, the Danish regulation applies a 48 h quarantine period before the next movement of animals (27). After that new animals should be kept in quarantine rooms (16, 35, 36, 55) between 14 and 30 days (5, 18, 45, 58, 64).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relevant Measures to Prevent the Spread of African Swine Fever in the European Union Domestic Pig Sector

et al. 2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

During the past decade, African swine fever (ASF) has spread from the Caucasus region to eastern European Union countries affecting domestic pig and wild boar populations. In order to avert ASF spread, mitigation measures targeting both populations have been established. However, despite these efforts, ASF has been reported in thirteen different countries (Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, the Russian Federation, Ukraine, Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Moldova, Czech Republic, and Romania). In the absence of an effective vaccine or treatment to ASF, introduction and spread of ASF onto domestic pig farms can only be prevented by strict compliance to control measures. This study systematically reviewed available measures to prevent the spread of ASF in the EU domestic pig sector distinguishing between commercial, non-commercial, and outdoor farms. The search was performed in PubMed and using a common browser. A total of 52 documents were selected for the final review process, which included scientific articles, reports, EU documents and official recommendations, among others. From this literature review, 37 measures were identified as preventive measures for the introduction and spread of ASF. Subsequently, these measures were assessed by ASF experts for their relevance in the mitigation of ASF spread on the three mentioned types of farms. All experts agreed that some of the important preventive measures for all three types of farms were: the identification of animals and farm records; strict enforcement of the ban on swill feeding; and containment of pigs, so as to not allow direct or indirect pig–pig and/or pig–wild boar contacts. Other important preventive measures for all farms were education of farmers, workers, and operators; no contact between farmers and farm staff and external pigs; appropriate removal of carcasses, slaughter residues, and food waste; proper disposal of manure and dead animals, and abstaining from hunting activities during the previous 48 h (allowing a 48 h interval between hunting and being in contact with domestic pigs). Finally, all experts identified that the important preventive measures for non-commercial and outdoor farms is to improve access of those farms to veterinarians and health services.

show abstract

“…As a result of outbreaks of African swine fever in 2014 and 2015 in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, the value of exports of pork and pork products was reduced by USD $961 million, which represents up to 50% of exports [61]. The introduction of African swine fever in Denmark could generate losses of USD $12 million in direct costs and USD $349 million in exports [62]. In Russia, it was estimated that African swine fever had cost USD $267 million in 2011.…”

Section: Ticks and Tick-borne Pathogensmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic and Health Impact of the Ticks in Production Animals

Hurtado¹,

Giraldo-Ríos²

2019

Ticks and Tick-Borne Pathogens

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Nowadays there is no doubt about the importance of production animals in the economy and food security of the population throughout the world. For an animal to be productive (cattle, small ruminants, swine or poultry) is needed to be in adequate health conditions. The health of these animals can be altered by the direct and indirect effects of ticks, causing significant losses in the production of meat, milk, eggs, leathers, and in many cases the death of the affected animals. The direct losses are related to the damage produced by the ticks when feeding on the blood of their hosts, while the indirect losses are related to the infectious agents transmitted by the ticks, and the costs associated to the treatment and control. It is important then, to know what are the economic and health impacts of ticks on the main production animals.

show abstract

Simulating the epidemiological and economic effects of an African swine fever epidemic in industrialized swine populations

Cited by 76 publications

References 23 publications

Understanding African Swine Fever infection dynamics in Sardinia using a spatially explicit transmission model in domestic pig farms

Understanding African Swine Fever infection dynamics in Sardinia using a spatially explicit transmission model in domestic pig farms

Relevant Measures to Prevent the Spread of African Swine Fever in the European Union Domestic Pig Sector

Economic and Health Impact of the Ticks in Production Animals

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About