Simulating the Impacts of Climate Change on Maize Yields Using EPIC: A Case Study in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa

Abstract

Climate change has been projected to impact negatively on African agricultural systems. However, there is still an insufficient understanding of the possible effects of climate change on crop yields in Africa. In this study, a previously calibrated Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was used to assess the effects of future climate change on maize (Zea mays L.) yield in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. The study aimed to compare maize yields obtained from EPIC simulations using baseline (1980–2010) weather data with maize yields obtained from EPIC using statistically downscaled future climate data sets for two future periods (mid-century (2040–2069) and late century (2070–2099)). We used three general circulation models (GCMs): BCC-CSM1.1, GFDL-ESM2M and MIROC-ES under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, to drive the future maize yield simulations. Simulation results showed that for all three GCMs and for both future periods, a decrease in maize production was projected. Maize yield was projected to decrease by as much as 23.8% for MIROC, RCP 8.5, (2070–2099). The temperature was projected to rise by over 50% in winter under RCP 8.5 for both future periods. For both future scenarios, rainfall was projected to decrease in the summer months while increasing in the winter months. Overall, this study provides preliminary evidence that local farmers and the Eastern Cape government can utilise to develop local climate change adaptation strategies.

Impact of weather parameters on maize agroecosystem and adaptation strategies under changing climatic conditions: A review: Sustainable and climate-resilient adaptation strategies in maize agroecosystem

“…Different crop modeling have predicted that maize production will decrease by 14-17 % by 2041-2060, and sowing date and cultivar types are significant factors in mitigating climate change (10). Another study forecasted that maize production will decrease by 23.8% and temperature in the winter season will rise by 50 % as per the projection of a model (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate or EPIC) for the period 2070-2099 (14). As per the studies, the impact of climate change can be reduced considerably by proper agronomic management practices such as delaying sowing dates, and developing new germplasms through molecular plant breeding.…”

Identification of influential weather parameters and seasonal drought prediction in Bangladesh using machine learning algorithm

“…Severe droughts in South Africa have led to water scarcity and reduced agricultural productivity. In recent years, the country has experienced drought-related losses in key sectors like maize production and livestock farming 112 . India, with its large agricultural sector, is highly vulnerable to drought.…”

Analysis of the Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Angola: Systematic Literature Review

“…From the literature review, six main factors for the impacts of climate change on agriculture were identified: (i) Drought, floods, and food security [2,6,15,18,[22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32]; (ii) Temperature increases, changes in precipitation patterns [12,14,18,20,24,25,27,33,34]; (iii) Extreme weather events [7,24,35]; (iv) Occurrence of pests and diseases in plantations [2,6,35]; (v) Water and energy insecurity [2,36].…”

“…These two climate variables have a significant effect on crops and their yield. Although rainfall affects agricultural production in terms of photosynthesis and leaf area, temperature affects the length of the growing season [7,10,20,[22][23][24][25][27][28][29][30][31][32]34,[36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45]. It is important to highlight other indicators, which were found in some articles, such as (i) drought 7.9% (5/63), (ii) humidity 1.5% (1/63), (iii) evaporation 1.5% (1/63) [12], as consequences of temperature and precipitation.…”

“…In Africa, where the specter of food insecurity looms large, climate change amplifies existing challenges, potentially jeopardizing efforts to alleviate Agronomy 2024, 14, 783 2 of 16 hunger and malnutrition [4]. Southern Africa, heavily reliant on rainfed agriculture, confronts imminent threats to food security and agricultural productivity due to increased rainfall variability and warming temperatures under climate change [6,7]. Angola, marked by vulnerability to climate change and recurrent droughts epitomize the precarious balance between agricultural sustainability and environmental exigencies [8].…”