Simulating the Yield Responses of Sugar Beet to Different Climate Change Scenarios by LINTUL-MULTICROP Model

Abstract

Sugar beet is an essential crop for the sugar industry that have a very crucial role in agro-industry of Turkey and Konya is the leading city in the amount of total sugar beet production and harvested area. The predictions, that the world's human population will reach 9 billion by the end of the current century and that demand for food will increase, are forcing farmers for the decision to search for new areas for agriculture or choose the crops that will be most productive in already cultivated lands. The aim of this study was applied the LINTUL-MULTICROP Model for investigating the adaption of sugar beet for the current climatic conditions and for climate change scenarios to show response of sugar beet to an increase of carbon dioxide and temperature. Four different scenarios were compared the effects of the climate change on sugar beet farming in the semi-arid Konya Region as followings: i) scenario (a) is the current climate conditions; ii) scenario (b) is the average temperatures increased 2 °C, iii) scenario (c) is 200 ppm increasing atmospheric CO2; iv) scenario (d) new optimum sowing and harvest dates in sugar beet farming and increased temperatures and atmospheric CO2 amount were simulated together. The optimum sowing and harvesting dates of sugar beet were moved 13 days back for sowing, and 8 days forward for harvesting. The highest yield was estimated under conditions of 2 °C and 200 ppm increased atmosphere temperature and CO2 levels with new sowing and harvest dates. The yields under irrigated conditions varied between 74.4 t ha-1 and 111.2 t ha-1. The irrigation water requirements of sugar beet were ranged from 618.8 mm to 688.5 for different scenarios. In conclusion, the cultivation of sugar beet tends to alter in semi-arid Konya environment.