Simulating urban expansion and scenario prediction using a cellular automata urban growth model, SLEUTH, through a case study of Karaj City, Iran

Sakieh, Yousef; Amiri, Bahman Jabbarian; Danekar, Afshin; Feghhi, J; Dezhkam, Sadeq

doi:10.1007/s10901-014-9432-3

Cited by 92 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…Together with the required data structure, the results of the model can provide information for use in sub-models [35]. Therefore, SLEUTH models are used for research and application in urban simulation studies in order to obtain useful results [26,30,[36][37][38][39]. The SLEUTH model addresses changes in the behavior of land use based on the concept that landscape changes along with the spreading of urban development, with land transformation rules being defined by the definition of urban growth dynamism in the sequence of spontaneous growth, new spreading center growth, edge growth and road-influenced growth [40].…”

Section: A Simulation and Prediction Model For Urban Growthmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Among the existing modeling tools, Cellular Automata (CA) is regarded as an effective tool for simulating dynamic changes in urban environments [22][23][24][25][26]. Through interactions of land use conditions, the characteristics of adjacent cells and land development rules, CA can simulate and predict the results of policies for managing urban development [22,[26][27][28][29][30].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling and Simulation of the Future Impacts of Urban Land Use Change on the Natural Environment by SLEUTH and Cluster Analysis

Kuo

Tsou

2017

Sustainability

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Abstract:Changing land use and urban expansion are key drivers of global environmental change, which are inevitable consequences of economic and social development for many cities. Most land use changes have a negative impact on the natural environment, especially due to their effects on surface temperature, runoff and habitat diversity. Due to the limitation of local government funding and expenditure, it is a challenge for developing countries to create strategies for urban sustainability. This study provided a systematic assessment method for simulating and analyzing the future impacts and spatial patterns of urban growth via cellular automata and cluster analysis. We used Tainan as a study area and compared the impact of future urban spatial development during two periods : 1993-2008 and 2008-2030. The results indicate that the impact of this development on the natural environment can be divided into six clusters. With an increased distance from the city center, there were increased changes in surface temperature and a decreased amount of runoff. These results indicate the occurrence of urban expansion, with habitat diversity being greater in areas governed by policies or ordinances.

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Section: A Simulation and Prediction Model For Urban Growthmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling and Simulation of the Future Impacts of Urban Land Use Change on the Natural Environment by SLEUTH and Cluster Analysis

Kuo

Tsou

2017

Sustainability

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“…The purpose of the calibration phase is to derive a set of values for the coefficients that can effectively model growth during the historical time period, in this case, from 1990 to 2010 [25]. The calibration process is divided into three phases (coarse, fine, and final) in which the coefficient space is extensively explored through a number of sequential Monte Carlo iterations employing possible combinations of coefficients [22]. During each step of the calibration, various goodness-of-fit parameters were computed having a value range of 0.0 to 1.0, with 1 being a perfect fit [13].…”

Section: Model Calibrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Finally, by using the best set of derived coefficients after the three phases of calibration, the model was executed to simulate the historical data set [22]. Once calibrated, the ending coefficient values were determined and used to begin forecasting.…”

Section: Model Calibrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Simulating Land Use Change in the Seoul Metropolitan Area after Greenbelt Elimination Using the SLEUTH Model

2017

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The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of a policy aimed at the removal of a greenbelt on future urban growth. The SLEUTH model was applied to the Seoul Metropolitan Area, South Korea, to predict urban growth under three different greenbelt removal scenarios. The accuracy of the model was verified using historical data with ROC and Kappa statistics of 82.6 and 76.3%, indicating reasonable accuracy. In the scenarios, suburban development grew in proportion to the degree of reduction of the greenbelt. In two of the scenarios, suburban cities in the inner part of the greenbelt were integrated into the metropolitan area. In scenario 3, a complete removal of the greenbelt resulted in the highest rate of projected urban development. The Seoul Metropolitan Area is under continuous developmental pressure, and the sacrifice of a certain amount of protected land to satisfy this demand may be inevitable. Accordingly, effective urban growth management is necessary to promote ecofriendly and sustainable development in formerly protected areas and to strengthen protection in the areas that will remain protected. The model outputs will be used by the government and policy makers to devise a more flexible and sustainable urban growth management policy.

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Dynamic simulation of debris flow waste‐shoal land use based on an integrated system dynamics–geographic information systems model

Wang

Zhao

et al. 2022

Land Degrad Dev

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Given the increased conflict between human development and land use in fragile mountainous areas, debris flow waste-shoal land (DFWSL) use has shown beneficial effects and drawn public concern in recent years. However, temporal-spatial future change trends of DFWSL are not yet clear, meanwhile widely applied singular methods, including the system dynamics (SD) model and geographic information systems (GIS), are unsatisfactory. To better assess the sustainability and challenges of DFWSL use and provide reference for future development, we propose a hybrid SD-GIS model for characterizing complex relationships and performing dynamic simulations and spatial spreading. A causality flowchart was plotted and response equation defining the changes was established to predict macro land-use demands in the SD model component. Additionally, the spatial distribution of land-use types was determined using the GIS model component. The Awang DFWSL system in the Yunnan Province, China was analyzed using the coupled method. The results revealed a steadily declining trend in cultivated land and water areas accompanied by a substantial increase in construction land. Future projections indicate that from 2018 to 2025, the total area of cultivated land will decrease by nearly half compared with that in 2018 and decrease to one-quarter of the level in 2018 by 2030. These predictions consider the reciprocal influences of social, economic, and ecological indicators, and risk factors, such as debris flow scale and frequency. This study provides a new approach for estimating future trends of DFWSL use and increases the awareness of the spatiotemporal changes encountered when using marginal land. K E Y W O R D S debris flow waste-shoal land, dynamic land-use simulation, ecologically fragile area, SD-GIS model, spatiotemporal changes 1 | INTRODUCTION Despite global climate change, population growth, and accelerated urbanization, debris flow waste-shoal land (DFWSL) has been utilized in low-and medium-risk mountainous areas to harmonize mountain region development with environmental regulations. It is an important initiative for sustainable mountain development (He et al., 2018, 2019). DFWSL provides adequate space for industrialization and urbanization while simultaneously furnishing a buffer space for ecological conservation. It could help solve the problem of cultivated land

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Simulating urban expansion and scenario prediction using a cellular automata urban growth model, SLEUTH, through a case study of Karaj City, Iran

Cited by 92 publications

References 73 publications

Modeling and Simulation of the Future Impacts of Urban Land Use Change on the Natural Environment by SLEUTH and Cluster Analysis

Modeling and Simulation of the Future Impacts of Urban Land Use Change on the Natural Environment by SLEUTH and Cluster Analysis

Simulating Land Use Change in the Seoul Metropolitan Area after Greenbelt Elimination Using the SLEUTH Model

Dynamic simulation of debris flow waste‐shoal land use based on an integrated system dynamics–geographic information systems model

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