Simulation and analysis of the impact of projected climate change on  the spatially distributed waterbalance in Thuringia, Germany

Krause, Peter; Hanisch, Susan

doi:10.5194/adgeo-21-33-2009

Cited by 22 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…We computed the following processes for each time step during modeling: the regionalization of climate data to the modeling units, calculation of global and net radiation as inputs for the evaporation calculation, calculation of land cover specific potential evaporation according to the Penman-Monteith equation, soil water balance, groundwater recharge and discharge delay. More details are given in [9].…”

Section: Evapotranspirationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this study the spatially distributed conceptual water balance model J2000g has been selected to simulate and quantify the main water budget parameters for Lake Manyara and its surroundings [9]. The model is implemented in the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS) framework [56].…”

Section: Water Balancementioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this study, we use remote sensing (RS) observations to approximate the spatial and temporal variation of hydrological parameters over lake Manyara and its catchment, which are used as inputs for the J2000g, a distributed conceptual hydrological model [9]. Some ground measurement and satellite gravimetry derived equivalent water thickness has been employed to verify the trend of the Lake Manyara water balance [10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Water Balance Modeling in a Semi-Arid Environment with Limited in situ Data Using Remote Sensing in Lake Manyara, East African Rift, Tanzania

2013

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Abstract:The purpose of this paper is to estimate the water balance in a semi-arid environment with limited in situ data using a remote sensing approach. We focus on the Lake Manyara catchment, located within the East African Rift of northern Tanzania. We use a distributed conceptual hydrological model driven by remote sensing data to study the spatial and temporal variability of water balance parameters within the catchment. Satellite gravimetry GRACE data is used to verify the trends of the inferred lake level changes. The results show that the lake undergoes high spatial and temporal variations, characteristic of a semi-arid climate with high evaporation and low rainfall. We observe that the Lake Manyara water balance and GRACE equivalent water depth show comparable trends; a 1652Despite the small size of Lake Manyara, GRACE data showed great potential for hydrological research on smaller un-gauged lakes and catchments in similar semi-arid environments worldwide. The water balance information can be used for further analysis of lake variations in relation to soil erosion, climate and land cover/land use change as well as different lake management and conservation scenarios.

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Section: Evapotranspirationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Water Balancementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Water Balance Modeling in a Semi-Arid Environment with Limited in situ Data Using Remote Sensing in Lake Manyara, East African Rift, Tanzania

2013

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“…The hydrological model J2000g (Kralisch et al, 2007;Krause and Hanisch, 2009) is modular-based and allows, to a certain degree, for the interchange of specific modules to fit the user's needs. It uses a smaller number of calibration parameters than the fully distributed J2000 model, which has been successfully applied in the central Himalayas (Nepal et al, 2014).…”

Section: The Jams Framework and The Hydrological Model J2000gmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We chose J2000g over J2000 due to limited information on soil and aquifer properties. J2000g requires spatially distributed information about relief, land use, soil type, and hydrogeology to estimate specific attribute values for each entity or hydrological response unit (HRUs) (Krause and Hanisch, 2009). The required meteorological inputs are precipitation, minimum, maximum and average temperature, sunshine duration, wind speed, and relative humidity from one or more point sources.…”

Section: The Jams Framework and The Hydrological Model J2000gmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity analysis and implications for surface processes from a hydrological modelling approach in the Gunt catchment, high Pamir Mountains

et al. 2015

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Abstract.A clear understanding of the hydrology is required to capture surface processes and potential inherent hazards in orogens. Complex climatic interactions control hydrological processes in high mountains that in their turn regulate the erosive forces shaping the relief. To unravel the hydrological cycle of a glaciated watershed (Gunt River) considered representative of the Pamir Mountains' hydrologic regime, we developed a remotesensing-based approach. At the boundary between two distinct climatic zones dominated by the Westerlies and Indian summer monsoon, the Pamir Mountains are poorly instrumented and only a few in situ meteorological and hydrological data are available. We adapted a suitable conceptual distributed hydrological model (J2000g). Interpolations of the few available in situ data are inadequate due to strong, relief-induced, spatial heterogeneities. Instead of these we use raster data, preferably from remote sensing sources depending on availability and validation. We evaluate remote-sensing-based precipitation and temperature products. MODIS MOD11 surface temperatures show good agreement with in situ data, perform better than other products, and represent a good proxy for air temperatures. For precipitation we tested remote sensing products as well as the HAR10 climate model data and the interpolation-based APHRODITE data set. All products show substantial differences both in intensity and seasonal distribution with in situ data. Despite low resolutions, the data sets are able to sustain high model efficiencies (NSE ≥ 0.85). In contrast to neighbouring regions in the Himalayas or the Hindu Kush, discharge is dominantly the product of snow and glacier melt, and thus temperature is the essential controlling factor. Eighty percent of annual precipitation is provided as snow in winter and spring contrasting peak discharges during summer. Hence, precipitation and discharge are negatively correlated and display complex hysteresis effects that allow for the effect of interannual climatic variability on river flow to be inferred. We infer the existence of two subsurface reservoirs. The groundwater reservoir (providing 40 % of annual discharge) recharges in spring and summer and releases slowly during autumn and winter, when it provides the only source for river discharge. A not fully constrained shallow reservoir with very rapid retention times buffers meltwaters during spring and summer. The negative glacier mass balance (−0.6 m w.e. yr −1 ) indicates glacier retreat, which will ultimately affect the currently 30 % contribution of glacier melt to annual stream flow. The spatiotemporal dependence of water release from snow and ice during the annual cycle likewise implies spatiotemporally restricted surface processes, which are essentially confined to glaciated catchments in late summer, when glacier runoff is the only source of surface runoff. Only this precise constraint of the hydrologic cycle in this complex region allows for unravelling of the surface processes and natural hazards such as floo...

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Glacier melt buffers river runoff in the Pamir Mountains

Pohl

Gloaguen

Andermann

et al. 2017

Water Resources Research

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Newly developed approaches based on satellite altimetry and gravity measurements provide promising results on glacier dynamics in the Pamir‐Himalaya but cannot resolve short‐term natural variability at regional and finer scale. We contribute to the ongoing debate by upscaling a hydrological model that we calibrated for the central Pamir. The model resolves the spatiotemporal variability in runoff over the entire catchment domain with high efficiency. We provide relevant information about individual components of the hydrological cycle and quantify short‐term hydrological variability. For validation, we compare the modeled total water storages (TWS) with GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) data with a very good agreement where GRACE uncertainties are low. The approach exemplifies the potential of GRACE for validating even regional scale hydrological applications in remote and hard to access mountain regions. We use modeled time series of individual hydrological components to characterize the effect of climate variability on the hydrological cycle. We demonstrate that glaciers play a twofold role by providing roughly 35% of the annual runoff of the Panj River basin and by effectively buffering runoff both during very wet and very dry years. The modeled glacier mass balance (GMB) of −0.52 m w.e. yr−1 (2002–2013) for the entire catchment suggests significant reduction of most Pamiri glaciers by the end of this century. The loss of glaciers and their buffer functionality in wet and dry years could not only result in reduced water availability and increase the regional instability, but also increase flood and drought hazards.

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Simulation and analysis of the impact of projected climate change on the spatially distributed waterbalance in Thuringia, Germany

Cited by 22 publications

References 21 publications

Water Balance Modeling in a Semi-Arid Environment with Limited in situ Data Using Remote Sensing in Lake Manyara, East African Rift, Tanzania

Water Balance Modeling in a Semi-Arid Environment with Limited in situ Data Using Remote Sensing in Lake Manyara, East African Rift, Tanzania

Sensitivity analysis and implications for surface processes from a hydrological modelling approach in the Gunt catchment, high Pamir Mountains

Glacier melt buffers river runoff in the Pamir Mountains

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