Simulation and evaluation of sustainable climate trajectories for aviation

Abstract

In 2019, aviation was responsible for 2.6% of world CO 2 emissions as well as additional climate impacts such as contrails. Like all industrial sectors, the aviation sector must implement measures to reduce its climate impact. This paper focuses on the simulation and evaluation of climate scenarios for air transport. For this purpose, a specific tool (CAST for "Climate and Aviation -Sustainable Trajectories") has been developed at ISAE-SUPAERO. This tool follows a methodology for the assessment of climate impacts adapted to aviation. Firstly, models for the main levers of action, such as air traffic, aircraft energy consumption and energy decarbonization, are provided using trend projections from historical data or assumptions from the literature. Second, the evaluation of scenarios is based on aviation carbon budgets, which are also extended to non-CO 2 effects using the concept of GWP*. Several scenario analyses are performed in this paper using CAST allowing different conclusions to be drawn. For instance, the modelling of the scenarios based on the more recent ATAG (Air Transport Action Group) commitments shows that aviation would consume 6.5% of the world carbon budget for +1.5 • C. Some illustrative scenarios are also proposed. By allocating 2.6% of the world carbon budget to aviation, it is shown that air transport is compatible with a +2 • C trajectory when the annual growth rate of air traffic varies between − 1.8% and +2.9%, depending on the technological improvements considered. However, using the same methodology for a +1.5 • C trajectory shows that a drastic decrease in air traffic is necessary. Lastly, analyses including non-CO 2 effects emphasize the importance of implementing specific strategies for mitigating contrails.

Climate Assessment of Hydrogen Combustion Aircraft: Towards a Green Aviation Sector

“…Several tools were investigated to convert the previously generated emission inventory into climate change metrics, namely: Climate and Aviation Sustainable Trajectories (CAST) developed by Planès et al [48]; Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) developed by Meinshausen et al [49]; LinClim developed by Lim and Lee [50]; and AirClim developed by Grewe and Stenke [10]. The potential models were listed by ICAO12.…”

AeroMAPS: a framework for performing multidisciplinary assessment of prospective scenarios for air transport

“…Initially, the software was published in 2021 under the name CAST (for Climate and Aviation -Sustainable Trajectories) [19]. It allowed performing analyses on the future climate impact of air transport for various prospective scenarios, similarly to the first studies detailed in the bibliography previously.…”

Medium- and Long-Term Prediction of Airport Carbon Emissions under Uncertain Conditions Based on the LEAP Model

“…He et al [12] selected three influencing factors, namely, traffic volume, GDP, and energy efficiency, to establish the STIRPAT model for the civil aviation industry to carry out medium-and long-term forecasts of regional carbon emissions. Considering factors such as the population, economy, and emission reduction technology, T. Planès et al [13] and Yu et al [14] constructed the KAYA identity for civil aviation carbon emissions to predict regional carbon emissions in the medium and long term. Liu et al [15] decomposed the carbon emissions of the civil aviation industry into four influencing factors, namely, the market, operational capacity, technological progress, and alternative fuels, and combined them with the Monte Carlo simulation method to predict the medium-and long-term carbon emission trends of China's civil aviation industry.…”