Simulation and Prediction of Storm Surges and Waves Using a Fully Integrated Process Model and a Parametric Cyclonic Wind Model

Abstract

This paper presents a fully integrated coastal process model and a simple parametric cyclonic wind‐pressure model for simulation of wind, storm surges, waves, tidal currents, and river flows. By sharing one computational grid within all those process modules and no need for switching executable codes from one module to another, this full‐coupling feature eliminates possible errors and loss of information due to interpolation and extrapolation of variables between different grids. To generate better cyclonic wind speed and barometric pressure, this parametric wind model includes nonlinear decay effect on wind intensity after hurricane's landfall. By implementing a new wind energy source term, the wave action model is capable of computing wave growth, propagation, and deformation through a regional‐scale domain from deepwater to shallow waters. Model validation and model skill assessment were performed by hindcasting wind, storm surges, waves, and river flows during Hurricane Gustav (2008) by using a high‐resolution grid covering the northern Gulf Coast. With improved wind fields estimated by the new parametric wind model, this fully integrated process model produced high‐quality wavefields in deep and shallow waters and storm tidal levels in the northern Gulf Coasts. Because of computing efficiency provided by seamless integration of process modules and optimized numerical solution schemes, faster‐than‐real‐time predictions of storm surges for the advisories during Hurricane Isaac (2012) were achieved by running the validated model in a desktop computer.

Improving Significant Wave Height Forecasts Using a Joint Empirical Mode Decomposition–Long Short-Term Memory Network

“…Though these differences are minor, the total energy is proportional to the square of the wave height. Thus, these minor differences are essential to capture as they can lead to dramatically different forecasts, affecting not only wave energy estimates, but also forecasts of hurricane-induced waves [35][36][37] and storm surges [38,39]. Consequently, the joint EMD-LSTM model displays a dramatically lower RMSE for wave forecasts compared to LSTM alone and thus, wherever possible, should be used.…”

Integrating storm surge modeling with traffic data analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of hurricane evacuation

“…Wang et al [7] studied Hurricane Michael's impacts on morphological and sedimentological features along the north-west Florida coast. Shen et al [8] modeled Typhoon-induced storm surge and waves in the Yangtze River Estuary. Ding et al [9] coupled a fully-integrated process model and a parametric cyclonic wind model to investigate storm surge and wave.…”

“…When a hurricane approaches the coast, emergency management agencies and residents rely on the forecasting information relating to hurricane tracks and storm surge for preparedness and evacuation planning. Traditionally, storm surge and evacuation planning are two different research areas, with the literature mainly focusing on an individual area such as evacuation traffic only [1,2] or storm surge only [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14].…”

La respuesta de modelos espectrales de olas en condiciones de huracanes intensos en el golfo de México

“…5B, D, F) es notorio observar que se registran alturas de oleaje por arriba de los 4 m en las 3 boyas, siendo los resultados de altura de oleaje de WW3 y SWAN y con el modelo de viento HURWIN (véase línea azul y línea roja con cuadrados) similares a los registrados en las boyas 42 0036, 42 039 y 42 040, excepto en los 2 primeros días de simulación. Para el caso particular del huracán Gustav en la boya 42 040, Ding et al (2020;en su figura 14) obtienen al usar con el nuevo modelo paramétrico de viento no lineal en el modelo de olas una sobreestimación de 2 m sobre el máximo de altura de oleaje. En el mismo estudio, pero al emplear el modelo paramétrico de Holland (1980), se sobreestima el máximo de altura de oleaje registrado en la boya 42 040 en casi 5 m. Al comparar lo obtenido por Ding et al (2020), pareciera que los resultados de HURWIN representan mejor el pico de oleaje observado.…”

“…Para el caso particular del huracán Gustav en la boya 42 040, Ding et al (2020;en su figura 14) obtienen al usar con el nuevo modelo paramétrico de viento no lineal en el modelo de olas una sobreestimación de 2 m sobre el máximo de altura de oleaje. En el mismo estudio, pero al emplear el modelo paramétrico de Holland (1980), se sobreestima el máximo de altura de oleaje registrado en la boya 42 040 en casi 5 m. Al comparar lo obtenido por Ding et al (2020), pareciera que los resultados de HURWIN representan mejor el pico de oleaje observado. Por otro lado, tras usar los resultados de viento del WRF (véase línea azul y línea roja con cruces) en WW3 y SWAN no llegan a reproducir el pico de oleaje máximo observado en las tres boyas.…”