Simulation-based approach for risk assessment in onshore wind farm construction projects

Mohamed, Emad; Seresht, Nima Gerami; Hague, Stephen; AbouRizk, Simaan M.

doi:10.1109/aparm49247.2020.9209516

Cited by 6 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Notably, the use of SimphonyProject.NET addresses common practical limitations associated with MCS-CPM, including difficulty interpreting results (Senesi et al 2015) and modeling of simulation inputs. By making use of popular scheduling techniques, such as the CPM and MCS (Karabulut 2017;Mohamed et al 2020a), SimphonyProject.NET is able to simulate project cost and duration in consideration of project risks.…”

Section: Modeling and Quantificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Domain-specific risk assessment using integrated simulation: a case study of an onshore wind project

et al. 2022

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Although many quantitative risk assessment models have been proposed in literature, their use in construction practice remain limited due to a lack of domain-specific models, tools, and application examples. This is especially true in wind farm construction, where the state-of-the-art integrated Monte Carlo simulation and critical path method (MCS-CPM) risk assessment approach has yet to be demonstrated. The present case study is the first reported application of the MCS-CPM method for risk assessment in wind farm construction and is the first case study to consider correlations between cost and schedule impacts of risk factors using copulas. MCS-CPM provided reasonable risk assessment results for a wind farm project, and its use in practice is recommended. Aimed at facilitating the practical application of quantitative risk assessment methods, this case study provides a much-needed analytical generalization of MCS-CPM, offering application examples, discussion of expected results, and recommendations to wind farm construction practitioners.

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Section: Modeling and Quantificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Domain-specific risk assessment using integrated simulation: a case study of an onshore wind project

et al. 2022

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“…To develop the model, common components of onshore wind farm construction were identified and abstracted. Previous studies were reviewed [45,47,48], and a typical onshore wind farm project was found to be comprised of six major work packages: site preparation, the foundation, turbine assembly, the collection system, mechanical completion, and commissioning. Each of these work packages was further partitioned into more detailed work-packages, as shown in Figure 3.…”

Section: • Construction Process Configuration;mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Each of these work packages was further partitioned into more detailed work-packages, as shown in Figure 3. As the proposed method requires weather impacts on activity duration to be determined, the work packages were further partitioned at the activity level following a detailed review of: (1) previous onshore wind farm construction projects available in literature [2,3,45,47] and (2) 10 real onshore wind farm projects, as detailed in Supplementary Materials (Table S1). The detailed activities within each work package, and the logical relationships between them, are illustrated in Figure 4.…”

Section: • Construction Process Configuration;mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Activity durations specific to this case study were provided by the contractor. Widely-used and commonly-recommended [47,[51][52][53], triangular distributions were used to stochastically represent regular (i.e., non-weather) variability in construction activity durations. Notably, activities related to site preparation, foundation, turbine assembly, mechanical completion, and commissioning are repeated for each of eight turbines.…”

Section: Activity Durationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Simulation-Based Approach for Lookahead Scheduling of Onshore Wind Projects Subject to Weather Risk

Mohamed

Jafari

Chehouri³

et al. 2021

Sustainability

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Executed outdoors in high-wind areas, adverse weather conditions represent a significant risk to onshore wind farm construction activities. While methods for considering historical weather data during pre-construction scheduling are available, approaches capable of quantitatively assessing how short-term weather fluctuations may impact upcoming construction activities have yet to be developed. This study is proposing a hybrid simulation-based approach that uses short-term precipitation, wind speed, and temperature forecasts together with planned and as-built activity durations to develop lookahead (e.g., upcoming 14-day) schedules for improved project planning and control. Functionality and applicability of the method was demonstrated on a case study of a 40 MW onshore wind project, and the method was validated using event validity, face validation, and sensitivity analysis. As expected, favorable weather conditions experienced during the tested lookahead periods resulted in a negligible impact (less than 10% reduction) on the productivity of weather-sensitive activities, which translated into a project delay of one day. The responsiveness of the framework was confirmed through sensitivity analysis, which demonstrated a 50% reduction in productivity resulting from poor weather conditions. The ability of the method to provide decision-support not currently offered by commercially-available scheduling systems was confirmed by subject experts, who endorsed the ability of the method to enhance lookahead scheduling and to facilitate the monitoring and control of weather impact uncertainty on project durations.

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“…Rolik [46] proposed a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) analysis approach to assess the risk level in wind energy projects. Mohamed and colleagues [47] proposed a simulation-based approach to assess the severity of risk factors on the cost and time of onshore wind projects. Because of the lack of historical data, triangular and uniform distributions were used to depict the cost and schedule impact of the identified risk factors [47].…”

Section: Construction Risk Assessment In Onshore Wind Project and Its...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Fuzzy-Based Multivariate Analysis for Input Modeling of Risk Assessment in Wind Farm Projects

2020

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Currently, input modeling for Monte Carlo simulation (MSC) is performed either by fitting a probability distribution to historical data or using expert elicitation methods when historical data are limited. These approaches, however, are not suitable for wind farm construction, where—although lacking in historical data—large amounts of subjective knowledge describing the impacts of risk factors are available. Existing approaches are also limited by their inability to consider a risk factor’s impact on cost and schedule as dependent. This paper is proposing a methodology to enhance input modeling in Monte Carlo risk assessment of wind farm projects based on fuzzy set theory and multivariate modeling. In the proposed method, subjective expert knowledge is quantified using fuzzy logic and is used to determine the parameters of a marginal generalized Beta distribution. Then, the correlation between the cost and schedule impact is determined and fit jointly into a bivariate distribution using copulas. To evaluate the feasibility of the proposed methodology and to demonstrate its main features, the method was applied to an illustrative case study, and sensitivity analysis and face validation were used to evaluate the method. The results demonstrated that the proposed approach provides a reliable method for enhancing input modeling in Monte Carlo simulation (MCS).

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Simulation-based approach for risk assessment in onshore wind farm construction projects

Cited by 6 publications

References 20 publications

Domain-specific risk assessment using integrated simulation: a case study of an onshore wind project

Domain-specific risk assessment using integrated simulation: a case study of an onshore wind project

Simulation-Based Approach for Lookahead Scheduling of Onshore Wind Projects Subject to Weather Risk

Fuzzy-Based Multivariate Analysis for Input Modeling of Risk Assessment in Wind Farm Projects

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