Simulation-Based Methodology for Predicting Football Match Outcomes Considering Experts' Opinions: The 2010 and 2014 Football World Cup Cases

Abstract

In this paper we propose a simulation-based method for predicting the 2010 and 2014 Football World Cup. Adopting a bayesian perspective, we modeled the number of goals of two opposing teams as a Poisson distribution whose mean is proportional to the relative technical level of opponents. FIFA ratings were taken as the measure of technical level of teams and experts' opinions about scores of matches were taken to construct prior distribution of parameters. Just before each round, tournament simulations were performed in order to estimate probabilities of events of main interest for audience and bettors such as qualifying to the knockout stage, reaching semifinals , reaching the final match, winning the tournament, among others.