Simulation of a Himalayan cloudburst event

Das, Someshwar; Ashrit, Raghavendra; Moncrieff, Mitchell W.

doi:10.1007/bf02702044

Cited by 107 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Deep and severe convective events occurring in the vicinity of mountainous regions leading to anomalous rainfall and subsequent flooding, have been the focus of research for a long time due to their often disastrous outcome for human settlements and ecosystems (Maddox et al, 1978;Caracena et al, 1979;Nair et al, 1997;Das et al, 2003Das et al, , 2006Houze et al, 2011;Webster et al, 2011;Rasmussen and Houze, 2012;Rasmussen et al, 2014). Houze et al (2011) identified the occurrence of a synoptic-scale channel of anomalously moist flow towards the mountain barrier in Pakistan (JulyÁ August 2010) to be responsible for the development of very wide precipitating mesoscale convective systems (MCS) producing huge runoff and flooding.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improved understanding of an extreme rainfall event at the Himalayan foothills – a case study using COSMO

Shrestha

Dimri

Schomburg

et al. 2015

Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography

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A B S T R A C TIn recent years, an increased occurrence of loss and damage of property and human casualties over the southern rim area of the Himalayas, caused by landslides following intense rainfall events, has been reported. An analysis of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)-gridded rainfall data shows that events with an exceedance probability of 1.6% for 200 mm/d rainfall are common over this region during the monsoon season. An improved understanding of the mechanisms, which lead to such events, is important for their prediction and to estimate the impact of climate change on their recurrence. In this study, we analyse such an extreme precipitation event, which hit the Uttarakhand region of the central Himalayas on 13 September 2012. We use the operational regional weather forecast model COSMO at a convection-permitting resolution of 2.8 km to simulate this event. The spatial pattern of daily-accumulated precipitation and atmospheric state profiles simulated by the model compared well with the TRMM-gridded data and radiosonde observations, which adds confidence to our model results. Our analysis suggests a three-step mechanism leading to this event:(1) development of an easterly low-level wind along the Gangetic Plain caused by a low pressure system over the central Gangetic Plain; (2) convergence of moisture over the north-western part of India, leading to an increase of potential instability of the air mass along the valley recesses, which is capped by an inversion located above the ridgeline; and (3) strengthening of the north-westerly flow above the ridges, which supports the lifting of the potentially unstable air over the protruding ridge of the foothills of the Himalayas and triggers shallow convection, which on passing through adjacent folds initiates deep convection.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improved understanding of an extreme rainfall event at the Himalayan foothills – a case study using COSMO

Shrestha

Dimri

Schomburg

et al. 2015

Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography

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“…Thus a large amount of waterflux occurred within a short period of time. As India Meteorological Department (IMD) considers rainfall intensities over 100 mm h -1 as 'cloudburst', this event could also be classified as one 40,41 . Cloudburst takes place when moist and thermodynamically unstable atmosphere rapidly uplifts along a steep topography (e.g.…”

Section: Seasonal Trends In Run-off and Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 99%

Perennial to Ephemeral Transformation of a Lesser Himalayan Watershed

Rawat¹,

Govind²,

Rawat³

et al. 2016

Current Science

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Under a changing climate, the Sub-Himalayan ecosystems are likely to experience marked transformations in hydrological, biogeochemical and biophysical processes. To explore this, we have been observing various hydrometeorological parameters in a completely rain-fed sub-Himalayan watershed (Salla Rauetella Watershed) since 1991. We noted a changing trend for some of the hydrometeorological parameters over the 22-yr period. While the annual air temperature has increased significantly, the annual rainfall also shows an increasing trend with a higher probability of increased rainfall intensity. The run-off data show a peculiar trend that the watershed has been transforming itself from a perennial to an ephemeral system, despite an increasing trend of rainfall magnitudes. This is primarily attributed to the increasing trends of rainfall intensities exceeding the infiltration capacities of the soil which trigger large but high-intensity run-off events with dry spells in other periods, which makes the river ephemeral. We infer a likely dynamic change in the run-off-generation mechanism which warrants the need for a more precise and rigorous observationcum-measurement strategy of ecohydrological processes in Himalayan ecosystems, supported with modelling and remote sensing approaches. This will help identify the optimal headwater treatment measures for augmenting groundwater to sustain the rainfed streams of the Himalaya under a changing climate.

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“…Das et al (2006) simulated the 6 July 2003 cloudburst that hit Shillagarh in Himachal Pradesh. Their study showed the capability of high-resolution numerical models (nested MM5 with highest resolution of 3 km in the innermost domain) in simulating cloudburst-like systems.…”

Section: Chaudhuri Et Al: Analysis-based Dynamics Of the Uttarkasmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Even a moderate amount of rain may cause severe events in hills, e.g., flash floods and landslides (Borga et al, 2014). A cloudburst, also known as rain gush or rain gust, is an extreme form of precipitation in which a high intensity of rain falls over a localized area (Das et al, 2006). The India Meteorological Department (IMD) defines cloudburst as a rainfall event with intensity of the order of 100 mm h −1 , accompanied by strong winds and lightning.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The cloudbursts in India usually take place during the monsoon season over regions with a steep orography, like the Himalayan region, the northeastern states, and Western Ghats. Cloudburst takes place when moist thermodynamically unstable atmosphere faces a deep and rapid uplifting by a steep topography (Das et al, 2006). In cloudburst-like systems, the convective clouds may have a height of up to 15 km.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Observation- and numerical-analysis-based dynamics of the Uttarkashi cloudburst

et al. 2015

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Abstract. A Himalayan cloudburst event, which occurred on 3 August 2012 in the Uttarkashi (30.73 • N, 78.45 • E) region of Uttarakhand, India, was analyzed. The near-surface atmospheric variables were analyzed to study the formation, evolution, and triggering mechanisms of this cloudburst. In order to improve upon the understanding provided by the observations, numerical simulations were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, configured with a single domain at 18 km resolution. The model was tuned using variation of different parameterizations (convective, microphysical, boundary layer, radiation, and land surface), and different model options (number of vertical levels, and spin-up time), which resulted in a combination of parameters and options that best reproduced the observed diurnal characteristics of the near-surface atmospheric variables. Our study demonstrates the ability of WRF in forecasting precipitation, and resolving synoptic-scale and mesoscale interactions. In order to better understand the cloudburst, we configured WRF with multiply nested two-way-interacting domains (18, 6, 2 km) centered on the location of interest, and simulated the event with the best configuration derived earlier. The results indicate that two mesoscale convective systems originating from Madhya Pradesh and Tibet interacted over Uttarkashi and, under orographic uplifting and in the presence of favorable moisture condition, resulted in this cloudburst event.

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Simulation of a Himalayan cloudburst event

Cited by 107 publications

References 19 publications

Improved understanding of an extreme rainfall event at the Himalayan foothills – a case study using COSMO

Improved understanding of an extreme rainfall event at the Himalayan foothills – a case study using COSMO

Perennial to Ephemeral Transformation of a Lesser Himalayan Watershed

Observation- and numerical-analysis-based dynamics of the Uttarkashi cloudburst

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