Simulation of Banking Sector’s Investment Potential

Abstract

The article analyzes the factors of the macroeconomic environment that affect the level of the investment potential of the national banking system in modern conditions. Investment potential is a quantitative indicator assessing the availability of certain resources and their sufficiency to meet investment demand and investment activities. It is the investment opportunities of commercial banks that acquire special significance for economic growth, and therefore it is extremely important to develop an up-to-date mechanism for developing and realizing the investment potential of the Russian banking sector. The situation with long-term financing of the real economy is aggravated by the introduction of sanctions, which led to the closure of access to the Russian banks for international capital markets for borrowing “long” money. Issues related to the definition of the investment potential of the banking system and the evaluation of formation factors are widely considered in the scientific literature. However, there is no general definition and unified methodology for assessing the investment potential of the banking sector. All this testifies to the urgency of the scientific problem of developing assessment tools and forecasting investment potential, taking into account all possible factors affecting its magnitude. To determine the points of investment potential growth on the basis of correlation-regression analysis, a three-factor model for forecasting investment activity and expanding the potential of Russian commercial banks was formed.