Simulation of Climate Change Impact of Soil Moisture Availability in the Dry Land Corn Fields of Sumbawa Regency, Nusa Tenggara Barat Province

Abstract

Climate change has great impact on the availability of soil moisture for the production of food crops in the drylands. Objective of the research was to study climate change simulations on the availability of soil moisture in dry land in Unter Iwes District, Sumbawa Regency, West Nusa Tenggara Province.The method used for water balance calculations was Thornthwaite-Mather. Evapotranspiration calculations use the Penman Monteith model on the CROPWAT 8.0 model. The level of groundwater availability was obtained by analyzing groundwater content (KAT) data on the value of field capacity and permanent wilting point on dry land. The results revealed that changes in temperature and rainfall are factors that affect the water balance. The surplus occurred in January to March and the deficit occurred in April to November. The highest water-surplus was 244,2 mm m -1 in the Pelat Village and the lowest in Pungka Village was 225.5 mm m -1 . The highest deficit was 494.32 mm m -1 in Pungka Village and the lowest in Pelat Village was 475,59 mm m -1 . Increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall impact on water availability, thus reducing the surplus period at the study site. The deficit period shift occured only in scenarios accompanied by 10% rainfall (C1,C5 and C9). Decreased soil moisture availability and high demand for crop water affect the potential for reduction. The potential of corn yield reduction in Pelat Village is highest at 20,7% (C9 ΔT + 6 o C and ΔCH -10%). KEY WORDSClimate change, moisture availability, water requirement, drylands. 1 o C of Nino index in August caused the decline of rice production in the period of January-April next year by 10-20% in Java Island and more than 20% in South Sulawesi Province. Results of study by Surmaini et al.

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