Simulation of forest change in the New Jersey Pine Barrens under current and pre-colonial conditions

Scheller, Robert M.; Tuyl, Steve Van; Clark, Kenneth L.; Hayden, Nicholas G.; Hom, John; Mladenoff, David J.

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2007.11.025

Cited by 44 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Successional and carbon dynamics for the NJPB have been previously published (Scheller et al 2008, Scheller et al 2011b). The landscape was divided into seven ecoregions (Scheller et al 2011b), which were aggregated into three broad land types for interpretation: uplands, wetlands, and the pine plains.…”

Section: Forest Succession and Disturbance Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The probability of establishment is the minimum of three limiting factors: minimum January temperature (a binary limit), minimum and maximum number of growing degree days, and the fraction of drought days (with insufficient soil moisture for growth) in a growing season (Pastor andPost 1988, Scheller et al 2005). Species parameters are provided in Scheller et al (2008) and in the Supplement, Century inputs.…”

Section: Forest Succession and Disturbance Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The system appears to be in a period of continued carbon recovery from these disturbances and is projected to continue sequestering carbon in wood and soils over the next century, assuming the climate remains constant (Scheller et al 2011b). Recent fragmentation and efficient fire suppression has reduced the size and frequency of wildfires on the landscape, causing a gradual shift towards oak domination (Scheller et al 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Divergent carbon dynamics under climate change in forests with diverse soils, tree species, and land use histories

et al. 2012

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Abstract. Accounting for both climate change and natural disturbances-which typically result in greenhouse gas emissions-is necessary to begin managing forest carbon sequestration. Gaining a complete understanding of forest carbon dynamics is, however, challenging in systems characterized by historic over-utilization, diverse soils and tree species, and frequent disturbance. In order to elucidate the cascading effects of potential climate change on such systems, we projected forest carbon dynamics, including soil carbon changes, and shifts in tree species composition as a consequence of wildfires and climate change in the New Jersey pine barrens (NJPB) over the next 100 years. To do so, we used the LANDIS-II succession and disturbance model combined with the CENTURY soil model. The model was calibrated and validated using data from three eddy flux towers and the available empirical or literature data. Our results suggest that climate change will not appreciably increase fire sizes and intensity. The recovery of C stocks following substantial disturbances at the turn of the 20th century will play a limited but important role in this system. In areas characterized by high soil water holding capacity, reduced soil moisture may lead to lower total C and these forests may switch from being carbon sinks to becoming carbon neutral towards the latter part of the 21st century. In contrast, other areas characterized by lower soil water holding capacity and drought tolerant species are projected to experience relatively little change over the next 100 years. Across all soil types, however, the regeneration of many key tree species may decline leading to longer-term (beyond 2100) risks to forest C. These divergent responses were largely a function of the dominant tree species, and their respective temperature and soil moisture tolerances, and soil water holding capacity. In summary, the system is initially C conservative but by the end of the 21st century, there is increasing risk of de-stabilization due to declining growth and regeneration.

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Section: Forest Succession and Disturbance Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Forest Succession and Disturbance Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Divergent carbon dynamics under climate change in forests with diverse soils, tree species, and land use histories

et al. 2012

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“…Berland et al (2011) simulated long-term ecosystem changes, and then compared model outputs with empirical paleoecological vegetation data to identify key drivers of vegetation dynamics in the Big Woods region in Minnesota, USA. Scheller et al (2008) modeled forest changes in the New Jersey Pine Barrens, USA, under pre-colonial conditions to construct scenarios mimicking a pre-colonial landscape. Both of these studies demonstrated the value of spatial simulation modeling for elucidating ecosystem changes and landscape history.…”

Section: Modeling Deforestation In Local and Wider Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intensive land use in the Swedish mountains between AD 800 and 1200 led to deforestation and ecosystem transformation with long-lasting effects

Östlund

Hörnberg²,

DeLuca

et al. 2015

Ambio

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Anthropogenic deforestation has shaped ecosystems worldwide. In subarctic ecosystems, primarily inhabited by native peoples, deforestation is generally considered to be mainly associated with the industrial period. Here we examined mechanisms underlying deforestation a thousand years ago in a high-mountain valley with settlement artifacts located in subarctic Scandinavia. Using the Heureka Forestry Decision Support System, we modeled pre-settlement conditions and effects of tree cutting on forest cover. To examine lack of regeneration and present nutrient status, we analyzed soil nitrogen. We found that tree cutting could have deforested the valley within some hundred years. Overexploitation left the soil depleted beyond the capacity of re-establishment of trees. We suggest that pre-historical deforestation has occurred also in subarctic ecosystems and that ecosystem boundaries were especially vulnerable to this process. This study improves our understanding of mechanisms behind human-induced ecosystem transformations and tree-line changes, and of the concept of wilderness in the Scandinavian mountain range.

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“…Statistical data can provide suitable information, e.g., data on artificial forest regeneration practices (Bürgi and Schuler 2003). In countries where detailed old maps are not available, various scenarios can be produced for modeling the landscape structure or land cover characteristics from history (e.g., the pre-colonial landscape in Northern America) (Scheller et al 2008;Stoltman et al 2007;Mladenoff 2004;Williams 2003). Even if close cooperation between landscape ecologists and historians is still rare (Bürgi and Russell 2001), some multidisciplinary approaches are now being started up.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term changes in forest cover 1780–2007 in central Bohemia, Czech Republic

et al. 2011

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Many studies have recently been devoted to the study of landscape change, and some have even focused on an analysis of the dynamics of forest cover change. However, few of the studies have worked on a methodology for making a detailed investigation of long-term forest change dynamics based on historic cartographic sources. The goal of this study is to further develop a method for analyzing long-term changes in forest cover on the basis of old maps and orthophoto maps in the GIS environment. The study area is located in Central Bohemia, to the east of Kutná Hora, a UNESCO World Heritage Site. The area consists of 21 cadastral units with a total area of 113 km 2 . The maps of the First (1780), Second (1851) and Third Military Surveys (1877) and the present-day orthophotomap (2007) of the Czech Republic were used as data resources. Source data have been processed in GIS. Forest cover is the subject of our study. However, the term is perceived from a broader perspective. What we call forest cover in our study refers to forest wood elements and other wood species in the landscape. In this study, forest cover has been structurally considered as a whole, without dividing it into the two categories mentioned. We counted the extent of the forest cover in each particular time horizon in hectares and as a percentage of the area under study, also the absolute changes in forest cover between the individual time horizons in hectares as well as the intensity of the changes in forest cover in hectares per year. The spatial changes in forest cover were evaluated in a GIS environment using specialized features to analyze spatial variation. The forest cover occupied 16.60% (1,880 ha) of the total area in the First Military Survey (1780). In 2007, the proportion was slightly higher at 16.64% (1,884 ha). More than half of all forest land (53%) from the time of the Second Military Survey (1851) survived until 2007. Not only the information on absolute changes but also the information on the rate of change is of great importance. The old Military Survey maps and the orthophotomap enable us to carry out studies of long-term changes in forest cover. However, the geodetic inaccuracy of the First Military Survey maps precludes reliable and exact quantification of the landscape changes between the First Military Survey and the Second Military Survey, and also between the First Military Survey and present-day (orthophoto map). These maps cannot be used for evaluating forest cover changes on the level of individual plots. The method presented in our paper may contribute to a better understanding of the long-term dynamics of forest land, covering a period of more than 250 years. This knowledge can be applied in forest management planning procedures. Apart from their application Communicated by J. Müller.

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Simulation of forest change in the New Jersey Pine Barrens under current and pre-colonial conditions

Cited by 44 publications

References 45 publications

Divergent carbon dynamics under climate change in forests with diverse soils, tree species, and land use histories

Divergent carbon dynamics under climate change in forests with diverse soils, tree species, and land use histories

Intensive land use in the Swedish mountains between AD 800 and 1200 led to deforestation and ecosystem transformation with long-lasting effects

Long-term changes in forest cover 1780–2007 in central Bohemia, Czech Republic

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