Simulation of January 22, 2024 Mw=7.0 Uqturpan earthquake consequences with the "Extremum" system application

Abstract

This paper reports the use of intensity attenuation equations for the territory of the Northern Tien Shan by modeling the impact of a powerful destructive earthquake of January 22, 2024 in China. The relevance of the study follows from the needed reliable estimates of possible losses due to earthquakes in order to aid the decision making process for the response and the proper choice of a search and rescue strategy for the heavily affected settlements. The paper has as its goal the calibration of the Extremum system models for the territory of the Northern Tien Shan. Our study is the first to analyze the seismic intensity attenuation equations obtained by researchers at different times with a view to their applicability to near real time loss assessment for strong events occurring in the area of study. We investigate how the results of seismic attenuation modeling are affected by the ellipse compression factor k. and the source parameters of a strong event as determined by different seismological agencies in the alert mode. Computer simulation was applied to assess the possible impact of the January 22, 2024 earthquake using the "Extremum" system developed with our participation. This paper provides results of modeling the impact of the 2024 Uqturpan earthquake, as well as an assessment of the convergence achieved by calculated and observed intensities for various intensity prediction equations obtained before for China, Kyrgyzstan and adjacent areas within the Gissar-Kokshaalsky seismically active belt.