Simulation of Land Use Changes in a Coastal Reclaimed Area with Dynamic Shorelines

Abstract

Abstract:Reclamation is capable of creating abundant land to alleviate the pressure from land shortages in China. Nevertheless, coastal reclamation can lead to severe environmental degradation and landscape fragmentation. It is quite important to monitor land use and cover change (LUCC) in coastal areas, assess coastal wetland change, and predict land use requirements. The siltation of tidal flats will result in the dynamic growth and continuous expansion of coastal areas. Therefore, the process of land change in coastal areas is different from that under the fixed terrestrial boundary condition. Cellular Automata and Multi-Agent System (CA-MAS) models are commonly used to simulate LUCC, and their advantages have been well proven under the fixed boundary condition. In this paper, we propose CA-MAS combined with a shoreline evolution forecast (CA-MAS-SEF) model to simulate the land change in coastal areas. Meanwhile, the newly increased area, because of the dynamic growth of tidal flats, is considered in the simulation process. The simulation results using the improved method are verified, and compared with observed patterns using spatial overlay. In comparison with simulation results that do not consider the expansion of tidal flats, the Kappa coefficient estimated while considering the dynamic growth of tidal flats is improved from 65.9% to 70.5%, which shows that the method presented here can be applied to simulate the LUCC in growing coastal areas.

Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value Dynamics under Ecological Constraints in Anhui Province, China

“…With the development and application of computer science and geographic information system (GIS) technology, research on land use spatial layout simulation models has rapidly increased [ 15 , 16 , 17 , 18 ]. Researchers have used a variety of simulation models to simulate future land use in terms of the quantitative characteristics and spatial layout, including a multi-agent system (MAS) model [ 19 ], cellular automata (CA) model [ 20 ], the conversion of land use and its effects at a small regional extent (CLUE-S) model [ 21 ], and a future land use simulation (FLUS) model [ 22 ], etc. The FLUS model, first proposed by Liu et al [ 14 ], can effectively deal with the complexity and uncertainty of the conversion of various land use types under the mutual influence of the human-land relationship.…”

Spatiotemporal Change and the Natural–Human Driving Processes of a Megacity’s Coastal Blue Carbon Storage

“…Previous studies indicated that reclamation had become one of the most widespread threats to coastal wetlands, which seriously affected the structure, function and service of coastal ecosystems [28]. In positive human-driven processes, restoration had an impact on the change in blue carbon storage, which also reflected that the ecological restoration project under human intervention could effectively weaken the negative impact of reclamation on CBCS [7,29].…”

Uso De Sistema Multiagente Para Análise Da Mudança No Uso Do Solo Em Uma Bacia Hidrográfica Do Brasil

“…Agentes são entidades computacionais autônomas de processamento de informações, que atuam a partir de estímulos e sensores do ambiente (Russell e Norvig, 2002). Assim, a tomada de decisão e as interações dos agentes geram mudanças no ambiente, que afetam suas percepções e decisões (She et al, 2017). Ao simular computacionalmente um MAS temse uma Simulação Baseada em Multiagente (Multi-Agent Based Simulation -MABS), que possibilita descrever o comportamento de sistemas complexos com múltiplos domínios (Gilbert e Troitzsch, 2005).…”