Simulation of Sea Storms Including Multivariate Storm Evolution

Abstract

A new method for the simulation of storms is proposed which takes into account the multivariate evolution of the storms, allowing to innovate in the form of each simulated storm, for all the variables involved. The method is based on two novel aspects: (a) measured storms are grouped using clusters techniques and a set of average evolution forms is defined for each cluster, one for each of the variables involved, and (b) a Vector Autoregressive model is fitted to the differences between the average evolution of each variable and the actual measured evolutions. The ability of the methodology to properly reproduce the joint probability distribution of all the variables involved is demonstrated for a case study at the mid Rio de la Plata northern coast.

How good are symmetric triangular synthetic storms to represent real events for coastal hazard modelling

“…The triangular shape (Boccotti, 2000;Fedele and Arena, 2009;Corbella and Stretch, 2012a; is the most frequently applied due to its simplicity, while some studies investigated other shapes, such as the parabola or the trapezoid (Martin Soldevilla et al, 2015;Lin Ye et al, 2016), as well as exponential laws . The most recent approaches focused on robust statistical analysis of wave timeseries to model the storm evolution (Solari and Losada, 2018;Lira-Loarca et al, 2020) or to generate joint time-series of wave parameters (Jäger et al, 2019). With some exceptions, most of above-mentioned methods rely on the availability of the storm time-series to properly mimic the storm development.…”