Simulation of the Ecological Service Value and Ecological Compensation in Arid Area: A Case Study of Ecologically Vulnerable Oasis

Abstract

In recent years, the delicate balance between economic development and ecological environment protection in ecologically fragile arid areas has gradually become apparent. Although previous research has mainly focused on changes in ecological service value caused by land use, a comprehensive understanding of ecology–economy harmony and ecological compensation remains elusive. To address this, we employed a coupled deep learning model (convolutional neural network-gated recurrent unit) to simulate the ecological service value of the Wuwei arid oasis over the next 10 years. The ecology–economy harmony index was used to determine the priority range of ecological compensation, while the GeoDetector analyzed the potential impact of driving factors on ecological service value from 2000 to 2030. The results show the following: (1) The coupled model, which extracts spatial features in the neighborhood of historical data using a convolutional neural network and adaptively learns time features using the gated recurrent unit, achieved an overall accuracy of 0.9377, outperforming three other models (gated recurrent unit, convolutional neural network, and convolutional neural network—long short-term memory); (2) Ecological service value in the arid oasis area illustrated an overall increasing trend from 2000 to 2030, but urban expansion still caused a decrease in ecological service value; (3) Historical ecology–economy harmony was mainly characterized by low conflict and potential crisis, while future ecology–economy harmony will be characterized by potential crisis and high coordination. Minqin and Tianzhu in the north and south have relatively high coordination between ecological environment and economic development, while Liangzhou and Guluang in the west and east exhibited relatively low coordination, indicating a greater urgency for ecological compensation; (4) Geomorphic, soil, and digital elevation model emerged as the most influential natural factor affecting the spatial differentiation of ecological service value in the arid oasis area. This study is of great significance for balancing economic development and ecological protection and promoting sustainable development in arid areas.

Three Decades of Oasis Transition and Its Driving Factors in Turpan–Hami Basin in Xinjiang, China: A Complex Network Approach

“…Remote Sens. 2024, 16, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 20 complex, and adapt to local conditions [24]. Thus, this study considered the characteristics of the Tuha Basin and evaluated the driving force behind oasis variation.…”

“…Liu et al [12] also found that human factors are the main driving force of landscape pattern changes in Jinghe County. However, human factors are multiple, complex, and adapt to local conditions [24]. Thus, this study considered the characteristics of the Tuha Basin and evaluated the driving force behind oasis variation.…”

A Quantitative Analysis on the Coordination of Regional Ecological and Economic Development Based on the Ecosystem Service Evaluation

“…This model has been widely used to assess the degree of coordination between ecology and economy. In [55], they studied the scope of ecological compensation in a fragile oasis in China by measuring the ecological-economic coordination index. According to this model, [56] conducted a quantitative study on the level of ecological-economic harmony in Harbin by quantifying land use/cover change (LUCC).…”

New Perspectives on the Impact of Human Activities on Natural Resources in Oasis Areas: A Case Study of Oasis in Wuwei, China

“…The Wuwei Oasis is a typical area of complex human-land relations in China [36], and the results of the sixth survey on desertification and sanding in China in 2019 clearly show that the area around the Hexi Corridor in China is home to some of the most severe desertification and sanding in the country [37]. There are 20,800 square kilometers of decertified land and 15,100 square kilometers of non-decertified land in Wuwei, accounting for 64.4% and 46.7% of Wuwei's land area, respectively [38]. In addition, Wuwei is an important energy corridor for transporting clean energy from Northwest China to the Middle East [39].…”